As of 2024, the Fun Belt has the distinction of being the only remaining conference in FBS to retains its divisional format, a feature that has nearly gone the way of the Dodo in college football.
According to conference commissioner Keith Gill in 2022, the appeal of being able to more easily schedule and cultivate regional rivalries is a driver for the decision. While this is obviously a unique approach, it also begs the question of why the creation of a “pod” system, similar to what the MAC does, would not have worked to achieve the same outcome. After all, the MAC was the only other conference at the time still toying around with keeping its divisions.
What the decision has left us with is a situation where one of the divisions, at least currently, is lopsided in terms of quality. Who would have thought such a thing could occur?
What may be to the detriment of teams like Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and James Madison is Texas State’s gain. Of course, nothing is decided on paper and teams still have to put it all together on the field for three months.
Teams I Like
Appalachian State
The Mountaineers have challenged themselves with a difficult out-of-conference slate in hopes that it will prepare them well for the Sun Belt schedule, so don’t expect to see App State in the Top 25 early unless a major upset over Clemson or Liberty occurs. However, this is without a doubt one of the most talented squads in the SBC and anything less than a title game appearance will be a disappointment.
App State doesn’t really have a weak unit on either side of the ball, unless you want to count a slightly unproven offensive line as such, and has as many skill position difference makers as any team in the Sun Belt. Although it feels like the Mountaineers are perennial contenders in the conference, it has been three years since a title game appearance and five years since an outright championship, but 2024 feels like it could be a return to the top for Shawn Clark’s squad.
Georgia Southern
I wasn’t necessarily a fan of Clay Helton when he was at Southern Cal, but the Eagles’ head coach has done an excellent job transforming Georgia Southern into a consistent winner and one of the most dynamic offensive forces in the G5 ranks. Although it is unclear if JC French will be the starting quarterback all season (he won the job for the opener), Helton’s offense should be fine with whomever is throwing the ball as they’ll have to try pretty hard to do worse than the 19 interceptions thrown by last season’s starter, Davis Brin.
What makes this team a sneaky good pick to win the Sun Belt is that the coaching staff feels very strongly that this year’s defense will be the best since Helton arrived in Statesboro. If that is indeed the case, the Eagles have a favorable schedule that sees them welcome nearly every other East Division contender to their backyard, making the mild upsets needed to clinch the division very realistic.
Texas State
Prior to last season, the Bobcats had enjoyed a single winning season in FBS, been to no bowl games and cycled through four head coaches since their inaugural FBS season just over a decade earlier. By the end of this season, Texas State could actually add College Football Playoff participant to that somewhat bare resume.
The meteoric rise of the program will be heavily credited to head coach KJ Kinne, and given his work in the portal that isn’t unfair. Joining a loaded roster this season is reigning Sun Belt POY Jordan McCloud at quarterback, who already helped put one team on the national map in 2023 (James Madison) and will look to do so for another this year. Kinne also added bodies on the O-line and the defense should be vastly improved. There isn’t a game on the schedule the Bobcats can’t (arguably shouldn’t) win.
Not High On
Troy
The Trojans have been the gold standard in the Sun Belt recently, winning three conference titles since 2017 and racking up double-digit wins in each of those campaigns. Unfortunately, Jon Sumrall left for Tulane last December and didn’t leave much in the cupboard for new head coach Gerad Parker. Nearly every unit is expected to take a step back in 2024 and the schedule is rough, with trips to Memphis and Iowa in the non-conference before road tests against Arkansas State, Georgia Southern and Louisiana during the conference slate.
Troy hasn’t won fewer than five games since 2015, but it should be considered a success if Coach Parker is able to hit that mark this season. I expect a big drop from 2023 and there will be no repeat Sun Belt Conference championship to celebrate for Troy.
Players To Watch
Ishmail Mahdi, Texas State running back
Though Texas State had a number of candidates to choose from for this list, it was hard to look past Mahdi, FBS’s all-purpose yards leader in 2023 with 2,169, more than 100 yards better than second-place (Ollie Gordon II). And while it may seem difficult stand out in the crowd at a place like Texas State, it’s easy in comparison to what Mahdi faced to get there.
An interesting story I’d recommend diving into deeper, Mahdi is originally from Kenya and his family were Somali refugees seeking to escape war. He didn’t even play competitively as a running back until his junior year of high school. This has feature story written all over it if the Bobcats were to make the Playoff and Mahdi is their bell cow.
Joey Aguilar, Appalachian State quarterback
I was actually a bit concerned about Appalachian State heading into last season because Aguilar was pegged as a possible starter. His tendency to scramble worried me, but the concerns were alleviated throughout last season as Aguilar not only took control of the starter’s role but had an excellent season, especially through the air (33 touchdowns, 3,757 passing yards).
No longer afraid of what Appalachian State can be with Aguilar leading the offense, his scrambling ability now feels like a tremendous asset as the Mountaineers will look to quickly get a relatively new offensive line up to speed. I expect Aguilar to contend for POY honors in the Sun Belt and with the skill players around him has a great shot at achieving similar numbers this season.
Jason Henderson, Old Dominion linebacker
Finally, a defensive stud! Though he is coming off an ACL injury suffered near the end of last season, Henderson belongs on this list as much as anyone as the two-time reigning tackles leader in FBS. The 2023 second-team All-American has an opportunity to become the all-time NCAA leader in tackles, and he won’t even have to have as many as he did the previous two seasons to achieve that.
It was a bit of a surprise to the Monarchs’ fan base that Henderson would return, but a welcome one. If it hasn’t already occurred, the faithful in Norfolk need to adopt some variation of the Roy Kent chant for their beast of a linebacker.
Games to Watch (Non-Conference)
Boise State at Georgia Southern (August 31)
Saying that both teams have Playoff ambitions isn’t overstating this matchup. It has the potential to be a fun one offensively.
Appalachian State at Clemson (September 7)
Not quite a rivalry game, but not quite a game that Clemson can simply overlook, either. The Mountaineers have been known to give top teams trouble in the early part of the season.
Games to Watch (Conference)
Louisiana at Texas State (October 29)
This Tuesday evening matchup will provide an excellent opportunity for a national audience, many of whom which will ultimately overlook other many Sun Belt games throughout the season, a chance to see two of the best that the conference has to offer.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (November 30)
The season finale for these two is a doozy. Both will be coming off of difficult matchups the week prior, and it could decide the East Division title race.
Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
Texas State to make Playoff (+900)
Amongst G5 programs, only Boise State, Liberty and Memphis have better odds of getting to the 12-team party. The Bobcats have a more favorable schedule than all of them.
Troy under 6.5 wins (-140)
Given what Troy has been left with heading into this season, a bowl berth would be a huge accomplishment. I don’t see that happening, and I’m even calling for Troy to miss the over significantly.
Georgia Southern to win Sun Belt title game (+2500)
This one is a bit surprising to me that it has such long odds, but Vegas seems to value some of the most recent upstarts (James Madison, Coastal Carolina) more than the Eagles. Call it one of my “Wishful Thinking” tips, I suppose.
Predictions
East Division
- Appalachian State (9-3, [7-1])
- Georgia Southern (8-4, [7-1])
- James Madison (9-3, [6-2])
- Marshall (6-6, [4-4])
- Coastal Carolina (7-5, [4-4])
- Old Dominion (4-8, [3-5])
- Georgia State (1-11, [0-8])
West Division
- Texas State (12-0, [8-0])
- Louisiana (8-4, [6-2])
- Arkansas State (7-5, [5-3])
- South Alabama (5-7, [3-5])
- Troy (4-8, [2-6])
- Southern Mississippi (3-9, [2-6])
- UL-Monroe (1-11, [0-8])
Conference Title Game
Appalachian State at Texas State
Champion: Appalachian State
