2024 NCAAF: Big Ten Conference Preview

August 28, 2024
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The world of college football really is just an entertaining version of Keeping Up with the Joneses (I’ve never actually seen the 2016 movie bearing the title but have read it was horrible). When the SEC announced that Oklahoma and Texas would be joining its ranks beginning this year, no one had to possess any insider knowledge to understand it was only a matter of time before the Big Ten announced its next move on the chessboard.

Enter Oregon, Southern Cal, UCLA and Washington. The four most lucrative brands from the former Pac-12 have transformed the Big Ten into college athletics’ most expansive conference, stretching almost literally from New York to Los Angeles. The largest media markets in the country now have a vested interest in Big Ten football, which we can only hope will mean the demise (or significant improvement) of the Big Ten Network.

The Big Ten morphing into the country’s second “super-conference” had another positive effect that has already taken place – the death of divisions. The worst thing that could have happened with the new 18-team league is a situation where all the new members were lumped into the West Division, ensuring that big boy matchups like Penn State vs. Southern Cal would happen once every decade or so (and that’s if we were lucky).

Instead, we get a more open scheduling procedure with protection for the biggest rivalries. We could all sit around and complain about money ruining college football until some of us are blue in the face, but can’t we also acknowledge the fact that the new look Big Ten is pretty damn cool?

Teams I Like

Ohio State

Last season’s result for the Buckeyes seemingly awoke a sleeping dragon within the program, because Ohio State looks poised to waltz right into the first 12-team Playoff this season. Ryan Day & Co. attacked the portal, landing household names Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Downs from the SEC, both of whom will make an immediate impact. And then, there’s the guy who has been named starting quarterback (Will Howard) – plucked from Kansas State’s starting lineup.

The Buckeyes do have a few tough matchups this season, including road trips to new conference member Oregon and rival Penn State, plus home dates against Iowa and Michigan, but may be favored in all of them. Ohio State is still stacked with talent on both sides of the football and should get more consistent quarterback play from Howard in big games. Anything other than a Big Ten title game and at least semifinal Playoff appearance is a massive failure in Columbus.

Oregon

Dan Lanning has quickly cemented himself as one of the top coaches in college football coming into his third season as the head man in Eugene. Were it not for national runner-up Washington in 2023, the Ducks very well may have come into this season as the reigning national champs. Similarly to Ohio State, anything less than a Playoff appearance would be a major disappointment for Oregon, who landed perhaps the biggest transfer portal signing in the country in quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Adding Gabriel to an offense which is full of talented receivers allows the Ducks to maintain its status as one of the most dangerous offensive units in the country even following the loss of Bo Nix.

Oregon should be able to control the line of scrimmage against most teams and has the firepower offensively to pull away from most opponents on its schedule this season. Defensively the Ducks are rock solid as well. A few landmines exist (Boise State, Ohio State, Michigan) but only one of those are away from the Autzen Zoo and double-digit regular season victories is the expectation.

Iowa

There’s a lot to like about the program that touted the nation’s very worst offense in 2023, starting with the fact that the orchestrator of that pitiful performance, Kirk Ferentz’s son Brian, was relieved of his duties as offensive coordinator after failing to meet a 25 PPG objective (it was missed by nearly 10 PPG) assigned to him. A healthy Cade McNamara also returns at quarterback, which initially brought optimism to the program before last season but who was never at 100 percent physically. The offensive line is experienced, and the defense will be one of the best in the country yet again.

But here’s the best part for Hawkeyes fans – save a trip to Columbus at the beginning of October, Iowa could realistically be favored in every other game this season. Getting rid of the East and West divisions was a nice try, but it’s not enough to prevent the Hawkeyes from being a very real threat to end up in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game in back-to-back seasons.

Not High On

Michigan

The Wolverines got their national title, and it doesn’t appear that the NCAA is interested in taking that away from them any time soon, but Michigan won’t be running it back in 2024. The loss of Jim Harbaugh is tough for more than just the underlying reasons we won’t go into in detail here. A cultural shift was very much so achieved by Harbaugh and I don’t think that Sherrone Moore has the ability to uphold that as the leader of the program now.

On the field, this will look like a very different squad than the one that finished last season a perfect 15-0. Just two starters return to the offense, and the Wolverines must replace all five starting offensive linemen. Defensively the losses should be slightly easier to replace, but they might be called upon to bail out the offense a lot more than last season. The schedule (featuring Texas, Southern Cal, Oregon and Ohio State) is treacherous and even a Playoff bid seems unlikely for the maize and blue this season.

UCLA

The Bruins appear positioned to receive the rudest welcome to the Big Ten of the four programs that have defected from the Pac-12 to join the conference. Most metrics put UCLA near the top of schedule difficulty lists and the loss of Chip Kelly as well as freshman phenom quarterback Dante Moore to the portal leaves this team searching for some answers on the offensive end.

There’s a clip from the Big Ten’s Media days of new head coach DeShaun Foster taking the stage for the first time to introduce the program, and if it’s any indication of the preparedness that the Bruins have taken for this season, it’ll be a long one. I’m just excited to see how it plays out – that’s it.

Players To Watch

Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State running back

My favorite portal signing of the offseason was Judkins to Ohio State, which for my money gives the Buckeyes the best one-two punch in the nation at the running back position along with Treveyon Henderson. Judkins won’t be an every down back and may not even be the official “starter” for the Buckeyes, but brings field vision and an element of speed that helped earn him SEC Freshman of the Year in 2022.

The strong stable of backs in Columbus should allow Judkins to remain fresh and healthy for the entire season and ensures that there will be no dropoff for the Buckeyes at the position.

Miller Moss, Southern Cal quarterback

Moss isn’t Caleb Williams, but doesn’t have to be in order to be successful in Lincoln Riley’s offense. That being said, the junior did a pretty good impression of Williams in Southern Cal’s bowl game last season, throwing for 372 yards and six touchdowns (Holiday Bowl record) against Louisville.

There were a number of programs that would’ve loved to lure Moss away from Los Angeles, but I think he made a wise decision to stay and fend off the other candidates in the quarterback room. Coach Riley has a guy who knows the system and can execute it well in Southern Cal’s first season in the Big Ten, which makes the team dangerous.

Kyle Monangai, Rutgers running back

The junior is second to none in the Big Ten conference in terms of running backs and their importance to their team’s offense. Monangai truly is the engine for the Rutgers offensive attack, and even with slightly better downfield production in the passing game this season, will be a focal point in what Greg Schiano’s team wants to do.

Only Blake Corum had more carries than Monangai’s 242 in the Big Ten last season, and the expectation is that the Scarlet Knight’s bell cow will carry a similar load again in 2024. An experienced offensive line at Rutgers should allow him to come close to or exceed his 1,262 yards gained last season.

Evan Stewart, Oregon wide receiver

Stewart bolted from Texas A&M to an Oregon squad that has a crowded wide receiver corps, but should quickly assert himself as a go-to guy for Dillon Gabriel in what will be one of the more dynamic offensive attacks in the country.

Though a somewhat slight build at 175 pounds, Stewart’s quickness makes him a dangerous target over the middle and he isn’t afraid to run those routes. Height wise there is no issue at 6’3” and he presents a threat on deeper routes as well. This is a guy who should be on lists for national awards at the end of the season.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

Penn State at West Virgnia (August 31)

A rivalry game is a great way to kick off the season and will also be a good test for Playoff hopeful Penn State, which shouldn’t have much trouble again until a trip to Southern Cal a couple of months later.

Texas at Michigan (September 7)

This is the type of blueblood matchup that will become more prevalent in the age of the 12-team Playoff. For the second straight season, Steve Sarkisian could create some positive momentum early in the campaign by going on the road and beating a Top 25 opponent out-of-conference.

Iowa State at Iowa (September 7)

The Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy often comes down to the wire, and there is no reason to think that this year’s edition will be any different. Both teams are solid and have reasonable Playoff ambition.

Games to Watch (Conference)

Iowa at Ohio State (October 5)

There is a chance that this game is between two unbeatens. The Hawkeyes will have an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes, and Ohio State must avoid looking ahead to the massive matchup against Oregon the next weekend.

Ohio State at Oregon (October 12)

Speaking of that massive matchup, here it is. The biggest on the Big Ten schedule and one of the biggest of the entire college football season, the victor almost surely assumes the driver’s seat for the Big Ten regular season title.

Ohio State at Penn State (November 2)

The Nittany Lions have beaten the Buckeyes just once in the last 12 meetings, but expectations are high for quarterback Drew Allar this season and if he delivers, Penn State should have more success offensively against Ohio State compared to last season (240 total yards of offense).

Oregon at Michigan (November 2)

The Ducks travel to the Big House for an early November showdown, which is late enough in the season where the Wolverines may have nothing left to play for but to ruin Oregon’s campaign. This could be a tricky one for Dan Lanning’s squad.

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!

Iowa over 8 wins (-130)

Looking at the Hawkeyes’ schedule and offensive personnel, this number looks way too low. I think the only thing that derails this bet are injuries.

Penn State to win Big Ten title game (+500)

Historically, only Michigan and Ohio State have stood in the way of Penn State being a perennial Big Ten title game participant. In the first year of the conference without divisions, the Nittany Lions avoid Michigan and Oregon, and get the Buckeyes at home.

Evan Stewart to win Biletnikoff Award (+1000)

Stewart may be seriously contending with his own teammate (Tez Johnson) for such an award, but with Dillon Gabriel distributing the ball around in Dan Lanning’s offense, it feels appropriate to take a flier on one of the Ducks’ top two wideouts.

Predictions

  1. Oregon (11-1, [8-1])
  2. Ohio State (11-1, [8-1])
  3. Penn State (11-1, [8-1])
  4. Iowa (10-2, [7-2])
  5. Southern Cal (8-4, [7-2])
  6. Michigan (8-4, [6-3])
  7. Rutgers (8-4, [6-3])
  8. Nebraska (8-4, [5-4])
  9. Wisconsin (6-6, [4-5])
  10. Washington (6-6, [3-6])
  11. Indiana (6-6, [3-6])
  12. Maryland (6-6, [3-6])
  13. Illinois (6-6, [3-6])
  14. UCLA (4-8, [2-7])
  15. Michigan State (4-8, [2-7])
  16. Purdue (3-9, [2-7])
  17. Minnesota (5-7, [2-7])
  18. Northwestern (5-7, [2-7])

Conference Title Game

Ohio State vs. Oregon [game in Indianapolis]

Champion: Ohio State

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