2024 NCAAF: Mid-American Conference Preview

August 28, 2024
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With all of the conference realignment that has occurred over the past decade in college football, let’s take a moment to recognize and honor a pillar of stability. The 12-team lineup that currently makes up the Mid-American Conference has stuck by each other’s side since 1999.

There’s something admirable about that in an age when even most non-Power conferences feel it is in their best interest to push heavily for expansion, in an increasingly difficult environment to maintain relevance.

“Now wait a minute, K. Becks!” you may plead, with a sly smile across your face. “UMass is joining the MAC next year!”

Re-joining, friends.

The thing about the MAC is that even when you think you’re too good for it, like Motel 6, they’ll leave the light on for you.

Teams I Like

Miami

The Redhawks lost quarterback Brett Gabbert a little past the midway point in the season and still managed to finish 2023 with 11 victories and a MAC championship. Assuming Gabbert can remain healthy for more games this season, Miami has to be considered the favorite to repeat. The offensive line returns four starters and should be elite by MAC standards, and though it may not be quite as dominant as season, the defense will still be solid.

Chuck Martin has earned a ton of respect from around the country for the job that he has done at Miami and can add to his impressive resume of accolades once again in 2024. Expect the Redhawks to be right in the thick of things heading into a difficult late November stretch when they face Northern Illinois and Bowling Green back-to-back.

Northern Illinois

The disastrous 2022 campaign (3-9 overall) seems pretty small in the rearview mirror now, following a winning record in 2023 that prompted a lot of optimism heading into the season. The Huskies turned things around offensively once OC Wesley Beschomer was brought into the fold four games into last season, and he should get a lot more production from quarterback Jalen Macon, who replaces the rag-tag bunch from a year ago.

Northern Illinois owns one of the toughest schedules in the MAC, going on the road this season to face Notre Dame, North Carolina State, Bowling Green, Western Michigan and Miami. If the team can stay generally healthy, there’s enough talent to get back to the MAC title game since 2021.

Not High On

Ohio

The Bobcats have been one of the most consistently solid programs in the MAC for some time, posting just one losing record since 2009. Although I’m not sold that the bottom will totally fall out from under them, I do not expect Tim Albin’s squad to be a true contender for the MAC title this season, which whether spoken loudly or not, is always the expectation in Athens.

Ohio hasn’t had to worry about the quarterback position for awhile but could be in some trouble there, having lost Kurtis Rourke to the transfer portal (Indiana). Parker Navarro got an early head start in last season’s bowl game, but it was clear he was not fully trusted to lead the charge offensively and with big losses in both the running game and at receiver, he’ll need to grow up quickly. I’m not sold on that happening and unfortunately, the defense is unlikely to be able to bail out the offense for the Bobcats this season. Flirting with .500 seems to be Ohio’s destiny in 2024.

Players To Watch

Antario Brown, Northern Illinois running back

The senior is the leading returning rusher in the conference and should have an excellent chance to improve upon his nearly 1,300 rushing yards last season. The Huskies have one of if not the top offensive line in the league and expected improvement of play from the quarterback position should soften up the middle of opposing defenses for Brown to run against.

Brown has been building towards this moment since he arrived in DeKalb, featuring in nine games in his freshman season primarily as an option that could break things loose in a single play. Between 2022 and 2023, his number of carries more than doubled to 212 last season, and he now maintains the clear status as Northern Illinois’ feature back and a focal point of the entire offensive scheme.

Connor Bazelak, Bowling Green quarterback

With Dequan Finn and Kurtis Rourke both transferring out of the conference in the offseason, Bazelak (who himself transferred into Bowling Green, from Missouri) returns as the most productive quarterback in the MAC. Injuries have prevented him from playing an entire season during his collegiate career, and he has at times struggled with turnovers, but Bowling Green has what looks to be its most potent offense in years so Bazelak will be counted on to some extent simply to distribute.

Nearly the entire offensive line returns for the Falcons and it did a pretty good job in pass protection last season, so everything is in front of Bazelak to have a career year. If he does, Bowling Green is certainly in the mix to make it to Detroit in December.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

Cincinnati at Miami (September 14)

The oldest rivalry between two teams not currently in the same conference, the battle for the Victory Bell should be an excellent one, with Cincinnati appearing much improved and Miami once again fielding a league contender.

Toledo at Western Kentucky (September 21)

Though Toledo’s defense figures to be solid this season, expect a lot of points to be scored in this one.

Games to Watch (Conference)

Toledo at Northern Illinois (October 19)

This game should play a critical role in determining who ends up traveling to Detroit for the MAC title game. While slightly too early in the season to qualify as a true MACtion Matchup, it will have every feel of one.

Northern Illinois at Miami (November 19)

True MACtion in every sense of the term. This Tuesday evening matchup will take center stage for a national audience and possibly have a major say in determining title game participation just a few weeks later.

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

Don’t bet on the MAC

Hammer this one. Seriously, the MAC is fun and all, but it’s typically far too volatile to put any significant amount of coin on and not be upset about later. Not only that, but there aren’t a ton of great futures wagers to place on MAC activity. It’s unlikely that the conference champion will be ranked high enough to steal a Playoff bid from one of the other G5 conferences, and no one is looking at individual performers for national awards.

If I’m wrong, then I’ll contradict the statement made in all of the other conference previews and accept full responsibility for lost potential winnings.

Predictions

  1. Miami (8-4, [6-2])
  2. Northern Illinois (8-4, [6-2])
  3. Toledo (8-4, [6-2])
  4. Western Michigan (6-6, [5-3])
  5. Ohio (6-6, [4-4])
  6. Ball State (5-7, [4-4])
  7. Bowling Green (6-6, [4-4])
  8. Eastern Michigan (6-6, [4-4])
  9. Kent State (4-8, [3-5])
  10. Akron (3-9, [2-6])
  11. Central Michigan (3-9, [2-6])
  12. Buffalo (3-9, [2-6])

Conference Title Game

Miami vs. Northern Illinois [game in Detroit]

Champion: Northern Illinois

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