Round 1 of the SEC’s biggest matchups did not disappoint at all last Saturday evening. Alabama got the win, but Georgia has no reason to feel like it can’t end the regular season exactly where it intended to be.
And for the second time this season, K. Becks has been defeated.
Sam’s picks were solid, particularly the nailing of the Kansas State victory, a game which at this juncture represents one of my worst predictions of the season thus far (thanks Alan Bowman, and sneaking suspicion that Ollie Gordon II was nursing an injury for a large portion of the contest).
As a result of Sam’s performance, the guests have taken an outright lead against the spread and have closed the gap straight up.
The current records after Week 5:
K. Becks – 17-8 SU, 13-12 ATS
Guests – 16-9 SU, 15-10 ATS
This week, my Dad will join Around The Corn in an effort to keep things moving in the right direction for the guests. Over the course of the 15 years of the site’s existence, I think it has been my Dad’s pleasure to remind me of all of the freezing cold takes that I have publicized for the world. I’m hoping that his disinterest (i.e. ignorance) in wagering on anything will be helpful, but as I’ve been told by professional mentors, hope is not a strategy.
Before we dive into Week 5, let’s briefly take a look at the highlights of the previous week.
3 Things We Learned in Week 5
Ashton Jeanty is HIM
Hi, casual fans? I’ve been trying to reach you about Ashton Jeanty. No, running backs aren’t useless in the college game, and No. 2 from Boise State has made a strong case to be No. 1 in the early Heisman race. Through four games, the junior is leading the country or in the top ten of every major statistical category for rushing. He has rushed for over 250 yards a game – twice. His 13 touchdowns puts him, at least currently, on pace to surpass Barry Sanders for the all-time record for a single season.
What’s even more interesting yet is that Jeanty isn’t putting quite the tread on his tires that some of the other rushing leaders are in order to rack up the numbers. His 82 carries ranks No. 14 in the country, a distant 32 carries fewer than leader Omarian Hampton from North Carolina. Given what Spencer Danielson is wanting to do offensively, don’t expect the Jeanty Train to slow down any time soon.
The Big 12 is wide open
It’s still early, but the Power conference with the most parody thus far has been the Big 12. Conference favorites Kansas State, Utah and Oklahoma State all have at least one loss, some of which were dealt to each other, and afterthoughts BYU and Colorado (yes, Deion’s boys) are currently atop the standings. While there is still time for the favorites to rebound, and dark horse candidate Iowa State remains unbeaten as well, some question marks have arisen that the unpredictable nature of the league will ensue. Does Oklahoma State have a capable offense without a consistent quarterback and healthy running game? Is Utah hiding the true extent of Cam Rising’s ailments? Can Kansas State score on teams that play real defense? And will Deion’s experiment in Boulder prove to be a viable path to success in college football?
Don’t take your eyes off of the sometimes forgotten Power conference. The level of unpredictability occurring this season is something often reserved for G5 leagues like the MAC.
It’s no country for old men
Just because you’re given an opportunity to play an extra season, doesn’t mean you should. It was a rough past weekend for the old guard in college football, particularly at quarterback, where seventh year slingers Alan Bowman (Oklahoma State) and Tyler Shough (Louisville) both suffered losses in games that seemingly were must-wins for their teams to remain in the Playoff conversation. Bowman in particular had a poor showing, and his job as a starter is now in question. It gets worse, though. The poster boy for medical redshirts, Cam Rising, still hasn’t shaken the latest injury bug to affect him, and last week it finally caught up to Utah. At some point coaches in college football have to weigh the options – veteran quarterback with experience (but probably still in the college ranks for a reason), or young gun with unrefined talent?
But hey, this blurb doesn’t have to be all doom and gloom – while some old heads struggled, the kids are alright. Freshmen receivers Ryan Williams (Alabama) and Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) were the stars of their respective games last weekend and have some experts believing that they would be the top two receivers off the board in next year’s NFL Draft if they were eligible.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
Syracuse at #25 UNLV (Friday, 9 PM ET – FS1)
Former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord has been, dare I say, good? The senior leads the ACC in passing yards per game (364.8) and has been thriving in an offense that demands the ball be put in the air, as McCord is No. 9 in the country in passing attempts (177). The Rebels dispelled any concern that they would suffer without former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka, hammering Fresno State last weekend and staking claim as the other Playoff contender in the Mountain West aside from Boise State. With just a single loss themselves, the Orange are far from playing the role of spoiler in this one and it feels as though there is quietly a lot on the line Friday night.
It’s difficult to explain Syracuse’s loss to Stanford two weeks ago, because although the Cardinal are the ACC’s best run defense, the Orange were able to get things going on the ground against Georgia Tech, which isn’t bad at defending it, either. In the end, the Rebels boast the Mountain West’s best run defense and despite allowing 226 yards per game through the air, are second in the country with nine interceptions. I like how Syracuse has started the year, but am not sold on them entirely and UNLV impressed me last weekend. I like the Rebels in a close one.
My Pick: 34-31 UNLV (does not cover -6.5 spread)
Dad’s Take: The QB/NIL/Extortion revolving door stops on the orange spot in this one. McCord plays well enough to secure a 7 point win 34-27.
#9 Missouri at Texas A&M (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Aggies have struggled offensively this season, particularly in the passing game, but have found ways to come away victorious each week since dropping a hard-fought battle against Notre Dame to kick off their season. At the same time, that comment doesn’t really do justice to the fact that freshman quarterback Marcel Reed has been brought along slowly since replacing Conner Weigman after one game and hasn’t been asked to do too much for the offense with his arm. Although it may not appear so at first glance, there are some similarities between Arkansas, which Texas A&M just beat 21-17, and this Missouri squad. The Tigers will need to play a clean game to walk out of College Station with an unblemished record, which is certainly something that they are capable of doing.
The Tigers are solid in all facets of the game, but have struggled the past two outings at containing dual-threat options at quarterback. Yes, Thomas Castellanos and Diego Pavia have a lot more starts than Reed, but the freshman has been electric with his feet while working on becoming more comfortable through the air. Missouri is good enough to dominate this game on both sides of the ball, but what I’ve seen from the Tigers so far this season suggests it won’t be that easy. I like the Aggies to pull off the upset that Vanderbilt couldn’t quite finish two weeks ago.
My Pick: 27-23 Texas A&M (covers -2 spread)
Dad’s Take: Mizzou prevails in a nail-biter. Missouri 31-30.
#4 Tennessee at Arkansas (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
The Razorbacks have hung tough this season, playing well enough to give themselves a chance to win in all five of their games (currently 3-2). The schedule begins to firm up considerably starting this weekend, though, with four of Arkansas’s next five contests being against teams currently ranked within the top 15. It helps that all four of those ranked teams will visit Fayetteville, but the offenses that they will face are potent. First up is Tennessee, which boasts an offense that thus far surpasses simply “potent” and could be considered elite.
Everything about the Volunteers thus far suggests they are the real deal. Nico Iamaleava is shaping up to be a special player, the running back corps is deep but also features the best SEC player you’ve never heard of (Dylan Sampson) and the defense has been lockdown through its first four games. The Razorbacks have been no slouch offensively, either, but Tennessee is going to put points up on the board and I’m simply not sure that Arkansas will be able to keep up, facing the best defense it has seen in 2024. Despite what the final score may indicate, I do think the Razorbacks will test Tennessee.
My Pick: 42-20 Tennessee (covers -13.5 spread)
Dad’s Take: UT continues rolling along at this point. Tennessee 35-20.
#10 Michigan at Washington (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
The Wolverines are making a habit of living on the edge, squeaking out their second consecutive victory by a field goal margin. Question marks remain about Michigan’s ability to move the ball through the air, but running back Kalel Mullings continues to pick up the slack caused by the nearly non-existent passing game. Last weekend, Michigan was held to fewer than 200 rushing yards for the first time in three weeks by a Minnesota defense that is statistically similar in that area to Washington. With nothing to lose and playing at home, the Huskies appear to have a decent shot in this one.
It was always going to take Jedd Fisch a bit of time to acclimate in Seattle, especially given the number of departing contributors from last season’s national runner-up squad, but it’s perhaps coming together more quickly than most people expected. Washington is currently the Big Ten’s fourth most potent offense, and is more balanced than Southern Cal, one of the reasons that Michigan had success going all out to disrupt the Trojans’ passing game. I like Washington’s chances of being able to move the football on the ground, chewing up clock while also putting points on the board. This may feel like a classic Big Ten battle on the whole, but in the end some plays will need to be made through the air and nothing that Michigan has done so far this season has me believing it will be the Wolverines making them.
My Pick: 24-20 Washington (covers -1.5 spread)
Dad’s Take: Huskies stop just enough Wolverine rushing game to win the “dog-gone” game. Washington 24-21.
#8 Miami at California (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Whether or not the Hurricanes were bailed out by the refs last Friday night is debatable, but the reality is that Miami managed to survive, and the close call should have reset any growing sentiment inside the locker room that maintaining this early season success would be easy. Mario Cristobal’s team was a bit sloppy in the first half against Virginia Tech and struggled throughout the game to contain Bhayshul Tuten and Kryon Drones on the ground, but Cam Ward’s composure (and a bit of luck) on the offensive side saw Miami through. Traveling literally across the country to face Cal may put some strain on the Hurricanes, and we’ll find out how mentally tough they truly are this weekend.
Marshawn Lynch will make guest picks on College GameDay this weekend, but it’d be more beneficial for the Golden Bears if he still had eligibility left to play. Miami’s inability to contain Virginia Tech’s run game was a problem for the Hurricanes and allowed Virginia Tech to hang around despite being outgained 394 to 508 yards and losing the time of possession battle by more than seven minutes. Turnovers didn’t help Miami, either, and Cal does lead the ACC with 11 takeaways and a +8 turnover margin. A Hurricanes squad that comes into this game focused (which I expect) after nearly losing a heartbreaker will win this game comfortably. A performance like last Friday’s, and Cal will take advantage of takeaway opportunities and could win this game.
My Pick: 31-17 Miami (covers -10.5 spread)
Dad’s Take: Cal is never for real. Miami 42-24.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
SMU at #22 Louisville (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
The Mustangs have shaken things up at quarterback already this season and present a different challenge offensively than what was expected with previous starter Preston Stone at the helm. Louisville’s defense was solid albeit on the losing end against Notre Dame last weekend and should give the Cardinals a good chance to remain in the ACC title hunt.
Navy at Air Force (Saturday, 12 PM ET – CBS)
The first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy sees a surprising Navy team travel to the mountains to take on Air Force, which has had a rough go of things so far this season. Considering the intensity of this rivalry series, don’t expect the Falcons to give an inch.
Iowa at #3 Ohio State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
The Hawkeyes have the Big Ten’s second-best rushing attack and are led by the conference’s best individual rusher in Caleb Johnson. For their part, the Buckeyes lead the conference in rushing yards per game allowed, with just over 60 YPG. Expect Iowa to try to engage in a game of keepaway to maintain some semblance of competitiveness.
Rutgers at Nebraska (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FS1)
Nebraska’s record in games decided by a touchdown or less was discussed last week, so it’s worth mentioning that the Scarlet Knights are the other side of that coin, going 8-2 in one score games since 2022. This contest screams one score margin from the highest mountain.
#1 Alabama at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
Welcome to the No. 1 spot, Alabama. You’re next challenge? A scrappy Vanderbilt team with nothing to lose that has played everyone tough this season, including a Missouri squad it took to OT in its last outing.
