Say what you will about Illinois and Nebraska as true Playoff contenders in 2024, but last Friday night’s contest between the two lived up to its billing and paved the way for what was overall an entertaining weekend of college football.
In the end, we were left with more questions than answers (Will Nebraska ever win another close game? Just how good is Michigan? Is Tennessee really on par with the other SEC heavy hitters? Does anyone want to win the Big 12?), but such is to be expected in September.
Last weekend’s games were also rough for Andrew, as he was unable to keep the momentum going for the guests and relinquished the outright lead that had been built over me against the spread.
The current records after Week 5:
K. Becks – 14-6 SU, 11-9 ATS
Guests – 12-8 SU, 11-9 ATS
This week, my buddy Sam, who is also technically family now by way of marriage, joins Around The Corn for the first time to make picks for the guests. Bragging rights at the Thanksgiving dinner table are on the line, so I won’t be taking it easy on the new guy this week.
Before we look at Week 5, let’s take a quick look at the week that was in college football.
3 Things We Learned in Week 4
New year, same Nebraska
Following last Friday night’s loss to Illinois, the Cornhuskers are now 1-25 since 2016 against ranked opponents. Nebraska is also 2-11 since the beginning of the 2022 season in one possession games. While these stats are ultimately attributed to three head coaches, the pressure continues to mount on its current one (Matt Rhule) to turn the tide.
I am a firm believer that the Cornhuskers are truly a good football team and that they will start to break through under the tutelage of Rhule, but this is an opinion that I have been peddling for almost three seasons now. Dylan Raiola looked like the true freshman he is with the game on the line against Illinois, and his maturation will be key to this team’s success moving forward. But until that happens, I have to accept that I have been too forgiving with this program’s results lately.
Kyle Whittingham’s game planning is second to none
Hours prior to kickoff, the news available to the public was that Utah would be taking on Oklahoma State, its toughest test to date this season and on the road in Stillwater, with its most impactful player available, quarterback Cam Rising. In reality the Utes would be trotting out true freshman Isaac Wilson (Zach’s brother) to lead the offense against then-No. 14 Oklahoma State.
What should have been a huge advantage for the Cowboys looked like nothing of the sort, as the Utes stifled Oklahoma State’s offense, allowing just 285 yards and building what ended up being an insurmountable 22-3 lead. What was most impressive, however, is the game plan that allowed Utah to completely dominate the time of possession battle (42 minutes to 17 minutes), ensuring that even losing the turnover battle wasn’t enough for the Cowboys to emerge victorious. Thanks to Cam Rising’s wavering health, Coach Whittingham has had a bit of experience dealing with difficult circumstances, but this job was one of his best. Given what else happened across the Big 12 landscape, Utah looks like an early favorite to win the league.
Fans should really stop promising to do ridiculous things if their team loses
First it was a Florida State fan promising to eat excrement if the Seminoles lost to Boston College. Last week, a confident Kansas State fan pledged to put a Taco Bell menu item up an area of their body where it does not belong if the Wildcats lost to BYU. Both results actually happened, much to the dismay of these surprised fans. The kiss of death is potent, folks – I would know.
But was it really dismay? In the first case, the social media user promptly deleted most original traces of the promise. In the second, the buzz created prior to Kansas State’s loss seemingly was enough to give this individual a social platform that they didn’t have prior to Week 4. Call it a case of “old man yelling at clouds”, but I’m already sick of the attention being given to these clout chasers. Hopefully the novelty has already worn off for most people, and the next comic looking to quickly gain a few followers will come away wholly unsatisfied.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#20 Oklahoma State at #23 Kansas State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
There is no rest for the weary, a phrase that can be echoed by both of these teams headed into this game. The Cowboys were unable to get their offense in gear against Utah until the fourth quarter last weekend, but in fairness the performance was still better than the Wildcats managed against BYU. A lot of questions that didn’t exist prior to last Saturday now linger for both programs, and a second conference loss in as many weeks would be a huge blow to league title and Playoff berth hopes.
Turnovers were the undoing of Kansas State last weekend, as the Wildcats gave up the ball three times to BYU but didn’t force a single turnover themselves. It’s the second time this season that the Wildcats have come up empty handed in the turnover column. What’s even more concerning is that the Cowboys lead the Big 12 with eight takeaways this season, and nearly clawed back against Utah thanks to a couple of interceptions. Avery Johnson is the future and the present at Kansas State, but needs to take better care of the football while maintaining the electric nature that has fans in Manhattan so high on him. Although the Oklahoma State offense hasn’t quite found the rhythm that was expected of it with all of the returning starters from last year, I feel like that won’t continue all season. I like the Cowboys to bounce back this weekend and deliver a second straight upset to the Wildcats.
My Pick: 35-31 Oklahoma State (covers +5.5 spread)
Sam’s Take: Kansas State (34 – 24). Both teams had their struggles last week – Oklahoma State’s 7th year quarterback getting benched last week mid-game, although coming back into the game later on, and K-State losing by 29 to BYU. Looking for K State to make a bounce back at home and cover the spread by a decent margin with dominance in their run game.
#15 Louisville at #16 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – Peacock)
The stakes in this game feel very similar to when these two met up last season in Louisville. Notre Dame comes in with one loss already and it feels very much like a “show me” contest for the Fighting Irish if they want to continue to be taken seriously as a Playoff candidate. The Cards have once again arrived to the party undefeated, with good numbers on paper but being handled with kid gloves by the pollsters until they can prove their worth with a victory over a team like the Fighting Irish. Something has got to give in South Bend on Saturday afternoon.
As stated, on paper Louisville appears to be one of the most complete teams in the ACC. Tyler Shough has been efficient at quarterback and is less turnover prone than Jack Plummer was last season. The defense has been stout as well, particularly against the run, but has allowed more passing yards each week so far in 2024. While Riley Leonard has gotten off to a surprisingly mundane start with the Golden Domers, he finally threw his first touchdown pass of the season last weekend, and the ease with which Georgia Tech’s Haynes King was able to operate both through the air and on the ground against the Cardinals suggests Leonard can further improve this weekend as well. I assume that Notre Dame’s run game will find success against Louisville, and the defense will hold up against Shough & Co. The Cardinals will need to prove to me that the gaudy numbers aren’t primarily a result of who they’ve played thus far.
My Pick: 31-23 Notre Dame (covers -6.5 spread)
Sam’s Take: Notre Dame (28 – 17). I don’t see Louisville being able to do much offensively against a stout, top ranked Notre Dame defense. This will be a low scoring and frustrating game for Louisville.
#2 Georgia at #4 Alabama (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
This one has been circled on the calendar of college football fans since schedules were announced. A rematch of last year’s SEC title game, where Alabama surprisingly got the best of the Bulldogs and kicked Georgia to the Playoff curb, is as big as they come for a regular season battle. Kalen DoBoer has settled in nicely as the head man for the Crimson Tide, and Jalen Milroe has been nearly flawless through Alabama’s first four games. Georgia may have looked a little shaky against Kentucky two weeks ago, but the Bulldogs also beat the doors off of Clemson to start the season, a win that is being downplayed if only because of how easily Georgia achieved it.
Part of the reason Georgia struggled in Lexington is because the Kentucky defense is legitimately good. Mark Stoops teams are known for this and the Bulldogs weren’t able to get things going on the ground, amassing just 102 rushing yards. Georgia’s closest calls over the past two seasons have been when the run game isn’t humming, and in last year’s defeat the Crimson Tide allowed just 78 to Georgia on the ground. The status of Trevor Etienne, who was suspended for the Clemson game and left injured in the second quarter against Kentucky, will be key for the Bulldogs. If he’s healthy, I think it will propel that aspect of the offense to be the slight edge Georgia needs. However, as good as the Bulldogs’ defense is, Jalen Milroe has established himself as a true difference maker and doesn’t seem likely to give a lot of freebies to the opposition. If he has the ball late in the game down a touchdown or less, it could easily go the other way. This one will be really close.
My Pick: 28-24 Georgia (covers -2 spread)
Sam’s Take: Alabama (31 – 20). Have to go with Alabama after Jalen Milroe’s performance last week against my Wisconsin Badgers. He looked fantastic against a solid defense, both running and through the air. If he continues to lead Alabama like he did the previous week I don’t see Georgia being able to keep up with their offensive power.
#19 Illinois at #9 Penn State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
Illinois made a statement last Friday night, outlasting a solid Nebraska team (and crowd) in Lincoln and slamming the door on freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola in the overtime session to maintain a Top 25 ranking and undefeated record. This weekend the Illini will need to run it back against an even tougher opponent. With the exception of a close call against Bowling Green (which has surprisingly been giving most teams trouble this season), the Nittany Lions appear to be as-advertised before the season began and few environments are tougher than Beaver Stadium under the lights.
Luke Altmyer was excellent last week, tossing four touchdowns and generally calling into question the sentiment that he is just a game manager. While it would be unwise at this point to assume that Altmyer will simply regress to the point of costing Illinois, the reality is that Penn State will be a tougher nut to crack for the Illini offense. On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions should employ a much more balanced attack that Nebraska did last week, which will allow Penn State to keep Altmyer off the field more if successfully operated. I do think Bielema has done a great job at Illinois and the Illini may surprise again later this season, but Penn State is a more refined team than Nebraska at this point and I don’t expect an upset here. The Nittany Lions are supposed to beat a team like Illinois and will.
My Pick: 30-20 Penn State (does not cover -18 spread)
Sam’s Take: Penn State (34 – 20). Another difficult matchup for Illinois. Impressed with the win last week, but going to take Penn State. Illinois was lucky to win last week with Nebraska missing a short field goal to win the game, and going into Penn State will be even tougher than Nebraska.
Washington State at #25 Boise State (Saturday, 10 PM ET – FS1)
Thanks to a one-year partnership between the Pac-12 and Mountain West that granted Washington State the opportunity to play a handful of Mountain West programs this season, this future Pac-12 rivalry gets to start a little early, as a non-conference tilt. How’s that for complicated? Needless to say given recent pillaging of the Mountain West by the Pac-12 (including Boise State), similar deals between the two wouldn’t be so friendly if they took place in the present. Speaking more specifically to this game, both of these programs have gotten off to a good start, and the winner seems destined to enter (or stay) in the Top 25 heading into Week 6.
The Broncos boast the nation’s third most potent rushing attack, and if he were at a Power program, Ashton Jeanty would likely be a Heisman Trophy frontrunner right now. Jeanty & Co. faces its stiffest test yet against the Cougars, which despite allowing 52 points in an overtime victory against San Jose State last weekend, have held their own defending the run. I do think Washington State’s up-tempo offense will give the Boise State defense trouble and should give the visitors a good chance to come away from this game victorious. If Maddux Madsen, who has given Boise State no reason to replace him yet, can keep the Washington State defensive front honest and soften up the middle for the run game, the Broncos should still win. The Cougars’ ability to score quickly will keep this one interesting, though. Expect lots of points on the board.
My Pick: 48-42 Boise State (does not cover -7 spread)
Sam’s Take: Washington State (45 – 42). Kyle, have to fade you here. No other reasoning other than it will be high scoring.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
South Florida at Tulane (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPNU)
The Bulls received a massive scare when Byrum Brown left last weekend’s game in the fourth quarter with an injury, but head coach Alex Golesh insists Brown will be OK moving forward. Although South Florida wasn’t able to hang with the Hurricanes, the Bulls should still be AAC title contenders as long as Brown is healthy, and this game will be very important to that title race.
Fresno State at UNLV (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – FS1)
The Rebels, owners of two victories over Power conference foes and an unbeaten record thus far, had a bomb dropped on them earlier this week when starting quarterback Matthew Sluka announced he would be sitting out the remainder of the season. The reason? Disagreement with the program, seemingly about promises made related to compensation. Welcome to the world of NIL.
#21 Oklahoma at Auburn (Saturday, 3:40 PM ET – ABC)
Both teams benched its starting QB last weekend following three turnovers, so this one appears destined to be decided by takeaways. While Oklahoma is the more talented team overall, the Sooners appear to have the bigger question mark at the quarterback position. Hugh Freeze has to be feeling the heat from the seat already, but a victory here could cool it slightly.
#3 Ohio State at Michigan State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – Peacock)
If you’re not a fan of the Buckeyes, then you probably like the fact that this contest is not so quietly being branded as a “trap game” for Ohio State. Reminder that in 2018, Purdue had the Big Ten’s third best offense and Ohio State was in the bottom half of defensive statistical categories. This year, the Spartans are the conference’s No. 10 offense in terms of yards per game, and the Buckeyes are allowing the fewest yards per game of any Big Ten defense.
#8 Oregon at UCLA (Saturday, 11 PM ET – FOX)
So much for being brought into primetime TV slots. This former Pac-12 rivalry tilt is the latest gametime start for UCLA in over 30 years and necessitates grabbing the low-hanging fruit “Big Ten After Dark” to describe it. On the field the Bruins, which are currently the Big Ten’s worst offense and second worst defense, may struggle to keep up with the Ducks, but there simply aren’t many other games to watch at this late time.
