Wow. What a weekend.
A relatively tame slate on paper turned into Upset Saturday right before our eyes, and what a wild way to ride into what has been hyped as college football’s biggest weekend.
Typically we start to see teams fall by the wayside in droves near the end of October and into November, when teams have enough tape on one another to really start the chess matches, but this past weekend’s craziness may have confirmed what some pundits have been quietly theorizing for awhile – that there aren’t any truly great teams this season.
While that could be seen as a negative in a certain light, in another it’s great given the introduction of the 12-team Playoff. More upsets should take place with the most number of eyeballs on the sport.
Despite the general chaos, things didn’t change drastically in the head-to-head prediction game.
The current records after Week 6:
K. Becks – 20-10 SU, 16-14 ATS
Guests – 19-11 SU, 17-13 ATS
This week, my buddy Trent will be making picks for the guests. Trent was the first to respond to the open call for guest prognosticators this season and quickly snatched up the coveted Week 7 slot. A lot of tough games to pick – it could be the prediction game’s version of Moving Day.
Before we look at a packed Week 7, let’s quickly review week that was in college football.
3 Things We Learned in Week 6
Expect the unexpected, always
In the NFL, parity is created by the fact that the margin of error (driven by the talent level) between the best and worst is miniscule. While no one would confuse the college game as operating similarly, it’s not to say that parity worthy of mention ceases to exist. Indeed, every once in awhile the college game gets what we got during Week 6 – when the No. 1, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 22 team in the country went down, all but one to an unranked squad.
It’s hard to fathom Vanderbilt getting its first ever victory over a No. 1 team just one week after that No. 1 team (Alabama) took over the top spot from the previous No. 1 (Georgia) by beating it head-to-head. It’s similarly difficult to explain how the reigning national champion can be outgained by over 140 yards in a rematch of last season’s title game. But these storylines, as unique as they may seem, are also why we love the game. And while it’s impossible to predict when they’ll happen, anyone who has watched enough of the game knows it’s never a matter of “if”.
It’s time to respect the hot starts by the service academies
I don’t want to hear about strength of schedules any longer. There are 134 FBS programs in the country and after six weeks, only 12 remain undefeated. Army and Navy are two of those teams, and likely not a single person in the country expected that. The Midshipmen were supposed to struggle this season, as they have the previous four (last winning season 2019), but boast one of the most efficient scoring offenses in the country and have yet to squander a redzone scoring chance. The Black Knights are seemingly seizing their newly minted AAC member status to place a serious bid for a Playoff spot, besting the fiercest competition in that regard (Boise State) by averaging over 360 yards of offense per game on the ground. Move over, Ashton Jeanty.
Both of these teams get a real opportunity to prove their worth against Notre Dame later in the year, but if Army and Navy continue the offensive dominance and aren’t ranked heading into those matchups, pollsters should be ashamed of themselves. Show some love, you cowards!
This is Kalen DeBoer’s Bama, not Saban’s
Kudos was given and well-earned by Kalen DeBoer and the rest of the Alabama team following its victory over Georgia two weekends ago. But a loss to a squad like Vanderbilt, albeit on the road, a weekend later is something that would have never occurred under Nick Saban’s watch. Not solely due to it being Vanderbilt, either. No – Saban would have spent all of Sunday tearing mercilessly through the Georgia game tape to find something to hammer his guys about, or at the very least pull up some meaningless soundbite to use as bulletin board material throughout the week that followed. In short, what separated Saban from nearly every other college coach is the ability to keep his young men focused on the task ahead of them. Alabama lost last week because DeBoer failed to do that.
Yes, this Alabama team has question marks defensively and that usually didn’t happen under Saban’s watch, either. But this is Vanderbilt we’re talking about. This was a mental lapse as much as it was physical, and those types of lapses are something that Alabama fans haven’t had to witness in a long time.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#1 Texas vs. #18 Oklahoma [game in Dallas] (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
Both teams head into the Red River Rivalry off of a bye week, but it unfortunately isn’t turning out to be the chance to get healthy that each program would have hoped it could be. Texas fans will be waiting with bated breath for the final status of Quinn Ewers (probable to play) while Oklahoma already knows it will be without two of its best receivers on the roster. While this is still a difficult game to predict due to the nature of the rivalry, Texas certainly seems to have the upper hand heading into it for a number of reasons.
The Sooners will be relying on true freshman Michael Hawkins, making just his second collegiate start, to guide the offense at the quarterback position. Hawkins initially took over midway through the Tennessee game and offers some scrambling ability that Jackson Arnold simply cannot, but the Texas defense will definitely be the most imposing the freshman has faced in his life. It seems likely that Hawkins will be forced to use his legs more than the coaching staff would ideally like in order to keep the Oklahoma offense moving, given Texas’s SEC-best pass defense allowing just 121 yards per game through the air. Even if Ewers is unable to go, the Longhorns don’t drop off much with Arch Manning at the helm and probably won’t have to score more than 21 points to win this game. I think they’ll do better than that and walk away with a comfortable victory, avenging last season’s heartbreaking loss to the Sooners.
My Pick: 33-17 Texas (covers -14 spread)
Trent’s Take: Do you consider the great states of Texas and Oklahoma to be in the “Southeast” region of the United States? Maybe the SEC and Big Ten should change their names…but that’s a rabbit hole for next spring, perhaps.
The Red River Rivalry will be a good one. Both teams are coming off a bye week and seem to be well rested. This is especially ideal for the Longhorn’s offense, whose running back core and Quinn Ewers have been banged up recently. Overall, I think it will be a high scoring game. Texas looks extremely dominant this year, but the Sooners seem to have their number in recent history, winning seven out of the last 10 matchups. Texas will continue its winning season but it will be closer than Vegas thinks.
Texas – 38 Oklahoma – 31
#4 Penn State at Southern Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
The Trojans have not found life in the Big Ten to be particularly comfortable thus far, dropping their second conference game last weekend (against Minnesota!) to drop to 1-2 and out of the Top 25. Cold weather states, am I right? Luckily for Lincoln Riley’s squad, this game will be played in the friendly confines of Memorial Coliseum, a place that Penn State hasn’t emerged from victorious since 1966, against the other Los Angeles school. This year’s Penn State team has gone about its business as expected and boasts an athletic defense that could give the Trojans problems, especially if Southern Cal is prevented from getting a lot of offensive opportunities in general. For obvious reason the Trojans are flying under the radar at this point, though that could make them dangerous.
Looking at the box score, you’d have a hard time understanding how Southern Cal lost to Minnesota last weekend. Jump right to the turnovers section, however, and you’ll find your answer. For the second consecutive game, the Trojans handed the ball to the opposition three times. It is a concern that seems to be growing larger as the season progresses, which is not a good sign. The other question mark, which is more of an indictment on what Lincoln Riley may or may not be doing outside of gamedays, is whether there is sufficient depth for the Trojans to be able to compete against a Penn State team that will continue to come at you heavily with the run game late in the second half. The Nittany Lions have not shown an ability to easily pull away in games this season, but there are depth concerns due to injury for the Trojans, especially on defense. Add this to the turnover concerns that would give Penn State extra opportunities, and the prospect of an upset is seemingly spoiled. I like Lincoln Riley, Miller Moss is the best quarterback the Nittany Lions will have faced and Penn State is not really the No. 4 team in the nation, but taking the upset here is a bit more of a stretch than I’m willing to make.
My Pick: 30-27 Penn State (does not cover -5 spread)
Trent’s Take: The Nittany Lions travel to a state that has more actual mountain lions in it than Pennsylvania, but that won’t make them feel at home. Big Ten teams that have traveled two or more time zones to play a game this year are just 1-8. Penn State will need to adjust and not let the Californication get to them.
I expect this game to be lower scoring. Penn State’s defense will carry them to victory in this game. USC has an “decent” quarterback in Miller Moss, but his O-line is awful. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Penn State’s defense is top tier at getting to the quarterback. Additionally, Penn State will look to run the ball…a lot…so that clock will be ticking.
Penn State – 17 USC – 10
#2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
The most hyped game of the most hyped weekend in college football will have a hard time disappointing the neutral viewer if these two teams do what they’ve been doing all season. Both Ohio State and Oregon are averaging at least 35 points per game and have at least one offensive player in the thick of the early Heisman Trophy race. But this game is about more than impressive statistics and a leg up in the Big Ten standings – it’s an opportunity for either Dan Lanning or Ryan Day to finally add an elusive “big victory” to their resume with the entire country watching.
Locally in Columbus, there have been a lot of questions about much how the presence of Chip Kelly on the Ohio State coaching staff will serve as an advantage. On its face, Kelly having been at Oregon over a decade ago doesn’t really mean much. But the transformation of Ohio State’s run game, thanks in part to Kelly as well as the electric nature of Quinshon Judkins to complement TreVeyon Henderson, means a whole lot more. Ohio State’s ability to run the ball on Oregon could be the difference in this game, as drives sustained by that facet will keep Dillon Gabriel off the field for longer. Oregon is also seemingly susceptible to the run, having been gashed by Boise State in that regard earlier this season. However, if Gabriel is given enough opportunities to work, he may be able to break down an Ohio State pass defense that hasn’t really been tested this season. This game is incredibly tough to call, should be close throughout and won’t really affect either team’s Playoff hopes dramatically if it turns out to be a nail-biter.
My Pick: 35-33 Ohio State (does not cover -3 spread)
Trent’s Take: As a Buckeye, this game has me a little worried. Sure, Ohio State can drop this one and still make the playoffs. But then I will have to hear from my wife about how “they never play anyone good and when they do, they lose” And like most things, she might not be totally wrong. We all know Ryan Day just seems to not win the “Big Games”. It almost seems like a mental block for him. Also, see my note above about Big Ten teams travelling to different time zones.
The game itself will be high scoring. Both offenses seem to be rolling, and there are definite ballers on each team. Autzen Stadium will be loud, and so it will be critical for the Ohio State offense to start clicking early to avoid false starts and early timeouts. Look for OSU to get Judkins and Henderson involved immediately to settle into a good tempo. Maybe some Jet sweeps with Smith/Egbuka to mix it up before throwing downfield. I do think Howard is somewhat cavalier with the ball, and so I expect he will turn it over at least once. The Ohio State defense is solid as well, which gives me confidence that guys like Jack Sawyer will make an impact.
Overall, my mind tells me that Ohio State has more talent, but it just depends on how prepared/disciplined that talent is going into Saturday night. My heart says “Go Bucks! 💎”
Ohio State – 41 Oregon – 35
#9 Mississippi at #13 LSU (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
Consistency has not been a strong suit of either team this season, but when you pit Lane Kiffin against Brian Kelly, there are bound to be fireworks. These two offenses top the SEC in terms of passing yards per game, though some of that is thanks to unreliable results against poor competition. The Rebels have cooled off considerably in this regard against SEC competition over the past two contests. Meanwhile, LSU has looked one dimensional offensively at times this season, but even that has been inconsistent – the Tigers racked up 242 yards on the ground in its last game (albeit against South Alabama). In short, it’s not clear what exactly we’re going to see in this one, which is par for the course when it comes to these two coaches.
At the beginning of the season, I liked the Rebels a lot and wasn’t particularly high on the Tigers. LSU’s potent passing game has been a bit of a surprise to me, but it’s difficult to be considered a true threat to win the SEC with a defense as bad as what Brian Kelly is dealing with this season. Mississippi was always bound to lay an egg at some point, and with that out of the way, I firmly believe we’re going to get the mostly-good Lane Kiffin for the rest of the season. It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that Kentucky’s defense is legit (currently third best in the conference). I don’t have any doubt that the Rebels will give up some points in this one, but I trust their ability to maintain momentum offensively against the porous Tigers’ secondary. Death Valley will be as silent as Vaught-Hemingway was two weekends ago when this one concludes.
My Pick: 38-30 Mississippi (covers -3 spread)
Trent’s Take: I wonder if Chip and Joanna will be at the Magnolia Bowl this year.
To be transparent, I haven’t watched either of these teams this year, so I don’t have much to say but I have heard that Mississippi has a great offense and an even better defense. However, LSU seems to take care of business when at home. I think this will be an evenly matched game.
Mississippi – 28 LSU – 27
#18 Kansas State at Colorado (Saturday, 10:15 PM ET – ESPN)
It is fitting that Coach Prime will take center stage to round out college football’s most anticipated weekend of the season. The Buffaloes are 2-0 in the Big 12 and looking to keep recent momentum going against the current favorite to capture the Big 12 title, Kansas State. The Wildcats are also coming off of some positive momentum, having pummeled Oklahoma State in their last outing but also sitting out last weekend with a bye. The numbers on paper suggest that a lot of points will be scored in this game, but that may not actually be the recipe for success for the Buffaloes in particular.
Colorado is one of six teams in the country that have not yet surrendered a 100-yard rushing or receiving game to an individual. While possibly surprising to some readers, this suggests that the Buffaloes may be able to contain Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens, a requirement to be able to beat the Wildcats. Something else interesting is occurring with Colorado as well – an emergence of the running game on offense. In the last two games the Buffaloes have run the ball 71 times and scored all five of its rushing touchdowns for the season. Perhaps incorrectly assessed as all hype and with no ability to adjust, Coach Prime has proven that sentiment wrong and in the past two games Colorado has looked like a different football team than it did at the beginning of the season. Folsom Field will be rocking on Saturday night, and as good as Johnson & Co. can be, I think that the bright lights fuel Colorado to a big victory at home.
My Pick: 31-28 Colorado (covers +3.5 spread)
Trent’s Take: PRIMETIME..at 10:15 PM ET at night; way past my curfew. Colorado seems to win games that they shouldn’t, so that tells me they have an “it” factor of sorts. However, Kansas State is the more proven team and should win this game.
I like Colorado in this one. I also like Coach Sanders’ hat 🤠
Kansas State – 24 Colorado – 26
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#16 Utah at Arizona State (Friday, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Why has there been such little news about the true status of Cam Rising? Well, simply put, because the Big 12 doesn’t require Utah to do so. Rising’s status is still a “gametime decision” as far as anyone outside the team is aware, and it’s getting a bit frustrating. Every game that Rising misses is one in which the Utes could struggle to win.
South Carolina at #7 Alabama (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
As indicated earlier, this isn’t Nick Saban’s Alabama. Just because the Crimson Tide suffered one of its most embarrassing defeats in recent memory last weekend does not mean that they’ll look great this coming one. Additionally, the Gamecocks have played some decent competition tough this season.
Arizona at #14 BYU (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FOX)
The Cougars are firmly on the shortlist for Most Surprising team this season and have entered the conversation as a legit Big 12 title contender. That might be all that Arizona needs to hear, as the Wildcats have already taken down one contender this season and it has been difficult to predict what version of this team will show up from game to game.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET – SEC Network)
The Commodores’ historic victory over Alabama is still fresh in everyone’s mind, but let’s not forget that the Wildcats nearly pulled off a similar feat over Georgia last month. Neither one of these teams are pushovers this season, and given proximity (both geographically and where the two programs have tended to end up in the SEC standings) this is a nice little faux rivalry.
#11 Iowa State at West Virginia (Saturday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
Morgantown under the lights is a difficult place to play, and despite a couple of losses, this Mountaineers squad is playing generally like I expected preseason. I like the way the Cyclones have started, but this battle may axe another one from the ranks of the unbeaten.
