Week 3 was arguably one of the lighter slates in terms of big games, but that didn’t prevent the results from eating me up in the head-to-head prediction game.
Arizona being fool’s gold and Florida State being even worse than I thought (I know – difficult to do starting 0-3) ensured that Colin orchestrated total domination, besting me both straight up and against the spreads last weekend. Congrats to him (first to beat me in either category this season), his Memphis Tigers and the guests in general, which have now taken a slight lead over me against the spread.
The current records after Week 3:
K. Becks – 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS
Guests – 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS
This week, my buddy Andrew will look to keep the momentum going for the guests. Andrew is a fellow RedditCFB lurker and while I don’t want to make an overly big deal about that, it scares me a bit to be matching up against someone who sends me screenshots of college football’s juiciest information before any other relevant outlet can even begin to produce content about it.
Before we look at Week 4, let’s briefly rewind the week that was in college football.
3 Things We Learned in Week 3
A victory over Florida State doesn’t impress AP poll voters much
Memphis learned this, at least. The Tigers, which were paid $1.3 million by Florida State to walk away from Tallahassee with a well-deserved victory, didn’t receive quite the reward for beating the Seminoles that as of less than a month ago seemed like a certainty for such an achievement. Still on the outside looking in at the AP poll, the Tigers have been chasing MAC darling Northern Illinois for the top spot amongst G5 title contenders since the Huskies upset Notre Dame on the road. Last weekend’s game had been touted as the potential feather in Memphis’s cap.
What’s additionally maddening is that the Tigers opened as a 1.5 point dog against the Seminoles, but that ballooned to almost a touchdown shortly before last weekend’s game. So despite its putrid start, bettors felt Florida State was actually more likely to beat the Tigers than in the preseason. Colin might be right – maybe we should just consult the Coaches poll.
The SEC title is going to be a blast
It’s way too early to start anointing any of the contenders in the stacked conference as the favorite, and last weekend proved that. Whereas former No. 1 Georgia looked shaky offensively against Kentucky, new No. 1 Texas did no such thing and deserved to swap spots. Alabama looked the part, too, going on the road to easily handle Wisconsin. Ditto for Ole Miss against Wake Forest. Tennessee hasn’t failed to score at least 51 points in a game this season. Missouri took care of a pesky and underrated Boston College squad and is the sixth highest ranked SEC squad currently (at No. 7).
The conference slate begins to heat up down South this week (more on that later) and as fans we’re likely in for a wild ride. Anyone that argued that the expanded Playoff would dilute the importance and/or excitement of the regular season forgot that this type of scenario was always bound to happen.
From the ashes, it shall rise
Like a phoenix, Pac-12 After Dark shall return! With the announcement that four teams from the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State) will join Oregon State and Washington State beginning with the 2026-2027 academic year, the wheels are in motion for the Conference of Champions to be saved, in some sense of the word, after all.
While it is unlikely that a rebuilt Pac-12, using spare parts from the Mountain West and wherever else the current two-program coalition can find at least two more members to maintain itself as a conference, will regain its status as a Power league, simply existing is probably enough for execs looking to maintain some semblance of control. In the end, assuming the Pac-12 is the league that survives (as opposed to the Mountain West), it will be Pac-12 people making decisions and money moving forward. And as we know, that’s really what most of these changes to the landscape are really about.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
People don’t seem to want to talk about the fact that both Bret Bielema (with Illinois) and Nebraska have both clawed their way into the Top 25 in September, forcing our hand to call this contest important. Indeed, one of the best matchups of the weekend is a Friday night spectacle and will easily crown the most surprising Big Ten team to start the season. I did have a hunch that Patty Mahomes, Jr. (aka Dylan Raiola) was more than just hype and good looks, but the Illini’s ascendence is a bit surprising even to me. It’s high time we admit that Bielema simply knows how to win playing Big Ten football with Big Ten programs.
Generally speaking, the Illini have been getting things done with strong defensive performances, though Luke Altmyer has been efficient thus far and has yet to turn the ball over this season, something he struggled with in 2023. His ability to keep drives alive could prevent Raiola from getting too many chances against the Illini defense, something that Bielema & Co. will need to try to ensure. If the Cornhuskers win the time of possession battle, I think their offense is just a bit too potent for Illinois. Playing keepaway could earn the Illini a close victory, but it will be a tough ask on the road in front of what should be one of the best crowds that Memorial Stadium has seen in years (400-straight sellouts aside).
My Pick: 30-27 Nebraska (does not cover -7.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: Bret “spelled with one T” Bielema has brought stability to the Illinois program despite coordinator turnover and players going to the League. Unfortunately for Burt, 5-star quarterbacks play best when the lights are the brightest in prime time. Expect this to be Dylan Raiola’s national introduction to the college football casuals. Nebraska 28, Illinois 17.
#11 Southern Cal at #18 Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
Just a couple of weeks after being humbled at the Big House by now top-ranked Texas, the Wolverines welcome another heavy hitter to Ann Arbor to kick off the Big Ten slate for both teams (and the inaugural game as a member of the conference for the Trojans). Lincoln Riley’s team had a bye week to prepare for Michigan, but the Maize and Blue have opted to replace Davis Warren with Alex Orgi at quarterback to start this one, rendering some of the film the Trojans had extra time to study useless. Orgi is a better overall athlete than Warren, and already has some playing time this season, taking over in the second half of last weekend’s game to close things out against Arkansas State.
The offensive struggles were to some extent expected for Michigan, but unfortunately the schedule did not set up to allow for much easing into things. Riley’s offense is always decent at best, but the Trojans appear to be a legitimate Playoff contender the way that Miller Moss has started the year. There should be more opportunity for Michigan to move the football in this one than against Texas, but it’s unclear whether the Wolverines have anyone at quarterback that can consistently deliver and on the other side of the ball, the defensive secondary has had issues. I have serious doubts that the defense will be able to hold Southern Cal to fewer than 31 points, a mark that Michigan has yet to eclipse this season.
My Pick: 33-20 Southern Cal (covers -5.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: Coach Sherrone Moore based his entire transfer portal class on the assumption that Alex Orji would be the starter in a spread option offense. Orji struggled through fall practice, lost the starting job to Davis Warren, but is now getting a second chance as QB1 after a lackluster start to the year by Warren. This game will be decided in the trenches with the key match up being the Wolverines’ offensive line against the Trojan’s defensive line. I’m anticipating a lower scoring game than the desert in this match up. Give me USC, 24-14.
#12 Utah at #14 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FOX)
This tilt will seemingly be pivotal in deciding the Big 12 title race. Although we shouldn’t be surprised by such news by now, seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising comes into this game with questions surrounding his health. Though just a (throwing) hand laceration suffered in Utah’s first game that is unlikely to prevent him from playing in this game entirely, it will be worth noting whether he has any special gear on to protect the injury. Chances are good that the Utes will need Rising to perform well to win on the road in Stillwater.
The Cowboys have been rolling offensively in 2024, albeit against some defenses with less than stellar pass coverage. I do expect Alan Bowman to take a slight step back compared with his previous performances this season, so the real question is, will the real Ollie Gordon please stand up? Last year’s Doak Walker Award winner is averaging the nation’s fifth most carries per game but is averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry. I do expect Utah’s defense to force Oklahoma State to be more creative offensively than it has had to be in its previous three games, and if Mike Gundy’s squad is unable to do so, risk falling behind early in the conference title race. Having quietly chosen the Utes as one of my Playoff participants before the season began, Rising’s hand isn’t enough for me to pick against them quite yet.
My Pick: 31-28 Utah (covers +2.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: This may be the first of two games between these teams depending on how the season shakes out. After an odyssey across college football Alan Bowman has finally found the fountain of youth in Stillwater. I would have strongly considered taking the Utes in this match up if they were playing at home, but after a so-so performance against Utah State I’m picking Oklahoma State to win 35-28.
#8 Miami at South Florida (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
Don’t be fooled by the lopsided score of the Alabama contest two weeks ago – the Bulls were down by less than a touchdown with fewer than seven minutes remaining before surrendering three long scores to end the game. Alex Golesh is building something sustainable in South Florida and the Bulls have literally nothing to lose against big brother in this one. The Hurricanes have been every bit as good as I thought they would be with the addition of Cam Ward, but I’m convinced that South Florida can give Miami trouble here.
Byrum Brown is as dangerous as they come at quarterback with his legs, and is currently four yards from being the AAC’s top rusher this season. While Miami has been excellent defensively this season, Brown’s creativity once outside the pocket is a handful for even the most disciplined units to contain. Again, South Florida has nothing to lose in this game. Golesh is something of an offensive whiz kid, but at some point in this game putting the clipboard down and just letting Brown take over could be the Bulls’ best bet to keep things interesting. I think Miami will ultimately get the job done, but things could get uncomfortable for Mario Cristobal.
My Pick: 31-21 Miami (does not cover -16.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: The Week 1 win against the Gators doesn’t look as impressive as it once was, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Miami is still undefeated. Miami has seen the demise of FSU and UF and are aware of the scare the USF put on the Crimson Tide. I think Mario Cristobal is going to have his players prepared to play. Miami 42, South Florida 17.
#6 Tennessee at #15 Oklahoma (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
Welcome to the SEC, Oklahoma. The conference could have eased the new boys into things with a matchup against, say, Mississippi State, but nope – instead the Sooners get to face the country’s top scoring offense. At least it’s in Norman. Speaking of the country’s top scoring offense, the Volunteers have scored a ridiculous 24 touchdowns through three games. That’s nice, if not necessary, as the defense has done its part as well, allowing just one through the same period.
It isn’t a hot take to say that Oklahoma will by far be the best offense that Tennessee has faced this season, and Jackson Arnold has been decent despite not being asked to do too much thus far. That will likely change in this one, as the Sooners don’t have a particularly potent run game and the Volunteers only allow an average of 55 yards per game on the ground. For its part, the Tennessee run game has been stellar, softening up defenses for its young signal-caller. In the end, while the Sooners are going to be a tough opponent for many SEC foes, I think that this Tennessee squad is legit and frankly is just going to overwhelm the Oklahoma defense. The welcome to the SEC for the Sooners will be a rude one.
My Pick: 37-24 Tennessee (covers -7 spread)
Andrew’s Take: In its next eight games, Oklahoma plays five teams ranked in the AP Top 7. The Sooners haven’t faced a team of Tennessee’s caliber yet this season. Nico Iamaleava (had to double check the spelling) is the real deal. I expect Tennessee to take the lead early and not let off the gas in order to show pollsters it is deserving of a higher ranking. Tennessee 52, Oklahoma 17.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
North Carolina State at #21 Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Grayson McCall era in Raleigh hasn’t started the way the I had projected, to add insult to McCall’s injury suffered last Saturday. However, freshman CJ Bailey orchestrated a comeback after McCall’s departure. The Wolfpack have won two of the last three Textile Bowls, including last season.
Georgia Tech at #19 Louisville (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN 2)
The Yellow Jackets’ stay in the AP poll was brief, but only because of a close road loss to a Syracuse team that looks pretty decent this season. Louisville figures to be tough to crack defensively, but Haynes King is by far the best quarterback the Cards will have faced thus far. Georgia Tech could be in line for another “road” upset.
Arkansas at Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The Razorbacks are just outside the Top 10 nationally in rushing yards per game and have looked potent in general offensively through three games. Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one, which makes this worth watching even if it figures to have little bearing on the SEC title race.
East Carolina at Liberty (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN+)
A potential trap game for the Flames? Liberty has arguably its toughest contest of the season next weekend on the road against Appalachian State, the same team that the Pirates narrowly lost to last weekend. Any looking ahead by Hugh Freeze’s squad could open them up to an upset that would effectively end their Playoff hopes.
#13 Kansas State at BYU (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN)
One week after a convincing victory over Arizona, Kansas State must travel to Provo to face a BYU squad that might actually be better than the other Wildcats but with none of the fanfare. I clearly should have trusted my gut last week, but the Cougars seem like they’re going to exceed my expectations of them this season.
