What. A. Weekend.
We’ve been preaching for weeks that college football gets crazy in the month of November, and last Saturday we got the results to back up that sentiment. Nos. 5, 7, 9, 14, 15, 16 and 19 went down, more than half of them to unranked opponents.
It’s the type of scenario that you have to just sit back and smile about, especially if you’ve been less than impressed with the Playoff Committee’s ability to answer questions about the rationale behind previous weeks’ rankings.
Get your popcorn ready, because the hand-wringing from that group isn’t over yet.
In terms of Around The Corn’s head-to-head prediction game, it’s getting quite close to being over. The guests fell slightly further behind overall last week and need a miracle this week to take the crown for the season.
The current records after Week 13:
K. Becks – 45-20 SU, 36-29 ATS
Guests – 42-23 SU, 33-32 ATS
This week, my buddy Zach will continue his tradition of calling the shots for the guests during Rivalry Week. He has quite the mountain to climb for the guests to surpass ole K Becks, but nothing is impossible when it comes to college football in the month of November.
Before we look at Week 14, we’ll quickly rewind a wild Week 13.
3 Things We Learned in Week 13
There are very few teams with “nothing left to play for”
Consider several of the teams that knocked off ranked opponents, all Playoff contenders, last weekend: one was a 4-6 team that prior to November, had one victory over an FBS school. Another was a .500 squad that was amidst rumors in September that a coaching change was nearly inevitable. A third, also .500 program, has been dealing with constant chirping about how its transition to the SEC proves its ability (or lack thereof) to maintain relevancy in the demanding league. Another victor yet came into last weekend with just a single conference victory and, you guessed it, a .500 record.
The term “nothing left to play for” is one reserved for those outside of the locker room that don’t understand the toil that a season, and all the weeks leading up to one, take on your body and mind. The reality is, there isn’t a single team in the country with nothing left to play for, and last weekend’s results are a wonderful reminder of that. It’s a big reason, along with the abundance of game film available on every team, why college football maintains its ability to create chaos late in the regular season each year.
In the SEC, having three losses isn’t a Playoff death sentence
With three-loss Texas A&M still maintaining a shot at the SEC title game, two-loss Georgia already having clinched a spot in the title game and three-loss South Carolina without a chance to qualify for the conference title game, but still with a chance to make a good final impression by beating Clemson on the road this coming weekend, it is not safe to assume that at least one three-loss SEC team won’t end up with a Playoff at-large bid.
It’s hard to argue with the SEC being the only conference with even the remote possibility of a three-loss member making the Playoff, as many of the contributing losses by teams still in contention were at the hands of other teams still very much in the Playoff conversation. That being said, it also brings up this comforting reality – very few people are going to be shedding tears for No. 14.
The Big Ten juggernaut(s) to Indiana: “sit down, and shut up”
The Indiana Hoosiers finally had their moment – a top five ranking ahead of a marquee matchup in Columbus against the Ohio State Buckeyes to solidify its assertion that it belonged in the Playoff conversation alongside names such as Oregon, Penn State and the Buckeyes themselves. The inclusion of such programs is not a coincidence.
No, such wording was intentional, given that Indiana’s schedule afforded Curt Cignetti’s team the luxury of playing the Buckeyes in mid-November and missing Oregon and Penn State entirely. It is the type of slate that might have resulted in a number of Big Ten teams climbing the rankings unexpectedly. But when it came time for the Hoosiers to put up or shut up, we witnessed the type of performance that we would have expected with or without a number beside Indiana’s name. The Hoosiers were thoroughly beaten by the superior Ohio State squad, surrendering more points (38) and scoring fewer (15) than they had in any game prior this season. For good measure, Ohio State decided to tack on a touchdown in the late stages of the game, when Coach Cignetti had already indicated the white flag had been thrown. An interesting gesture by Ryan Day & Co., but at the same time a simple reminder to Indiana – if you’re going to talk the talk, be prepared to walk the walk. Against real competition, that is.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
Michigan at #2 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
It has been a long, nearly five years since Ohio State last beat Michigan. During that time, the journey has been marked by questions about the capability of coaches, allegations of sign-stealing, a national championship and plenty of soundbites to keep the talking heads busy. But as is true with every edition of The Game, the only thing that matters to these two bitter rivals is what is right in front of them. For Ohio State, it’s a chance at redemption, particularly for veteran players that have been with the program and never beaten That Team Up North. For Michigan, it’s a chance to once again spoil Ohio State’s dreams of winning the Big Ten title and possibilities beyond, this time as a significant underdog. You can throw out the overall records, because that doesn’t matter.
The Buckeyes proved last week what their talent can do to a team that is physically overmatched. While that isn’t totally the case against Michigan, as the Wolverines legitimately have one of the better defensive units in the country, an argument can be easily made that the Michigan offense is comparatively understaffed. It has been tough sledding all season on offense for the Wolverines, which never figured out an answer for the passing game and is overly reliant on the run. The Buckeyes have been dominant on defense all season and haven’t allowed an opponent to rush for 100 yards since the Penn State game. Putting aside all the off-the-field noise about Ohio State’s losing streak against Michigan, the reality is that this game features two teams in very different places right now. It’s a throwback to the 2010s era, a timeframe where Ohio State dominated the rivalry and lost only once. I expect the Buckeyes to come out strongly, something it hasn’t always done this season, only reinforcing the thought that this game could get ugly once Michigan’s defense gets worn down by Ohio State’s relentless offensive attack.
My Pick: 40-17 Ohio State (covers -21 spread)
Zach’s Take: Deep rooted hatred remains and has intensified over the years. I don’t care who the coach is on the other side, I don’t care who the players are, tOSU needs to win this game by a lot. And Ryan Day will do so to satiate the fan base and his consecutive losses.
tOSU – 59, TTUN – 0
#15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
This game presents the unique scenario where neither team will be playing in its respective conference title game next week, but a win still affords the victor an opportunity to sweat out the Playoff Committee’s selections in a couple of weeks. Both South Carolina and Clemson have clawed back into the Playoff conversation thanks to a strong second half. The Gamecocks have reeled off five straight victories after having more than once come tantalizingly close earlier in the season to pulling off what would have been considered major upsets. The Tigers kept their heads down following an embarrassing opening season loss to Georgia and have lost just once since. Shane Beamer’s squad will look to break hearts in Death Valley once again, having clipped the Tigers by the narrowest of margins (31-30) the last time these two met in Clemson in 2022.
The maturation of LaNorris Sellers has been a major reason why the Gamecocks have ascended to the cusp of a Playoff bid during the second half of the season. Sellers has always been dangerous as a runner, but his ability as a passer has improved dramatically and turned South Carolina into one of the more dynamic offenses in the SEC. Clemson’s defense has struggled at times, particularly against the run, and has conceded five rushing touchdowns in its two losses this season. The Tigers must find a way to contain not only Sellers, but also Rocket Sanders, who has already amassed 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2024. Clemson’s offense as a whole is no doubt good enough to get the job done, but I predict a masterclass performance by the South Carolina offense, chewing up clock and preventing the Tigers from turning this into a track meet.
My Pick: 24-21 South Carolina (covers +2.5 spread)
Zach’s Take: Potential playoff implications are actually possible here, although both would need a little help even with a victory. SC has beaten a few teams they shouldn’t have, but also lost to Ole Miss and Alabama. Is the SEC deep or overrated? I guess that question will be answered in the Playoff. I’m picking Carolina here because the ACC is nothing and Dabo is a damned fool.
South Carolina – 38, Clemson – 28
#6 Miami at Syracuse (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Two of the top three offenses in the ACC will square off in this one, and with the game being played in a controlled climate, expect there to be a lot of points. The Orange stormed out of the gate this season with the addition of Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, who leads the country in passing yards per game and is 50 attempts ahead of the second most used arm in the nation. Right behind McCord in the passing yards per game category is Miami quarterback Cam Ward, who still has Heisman aspirations but will be thinking bigger given where the Hurricanes currently sit in the Playoff rankings. If anything, both of these teams have put on a show in plenty of games this season, and there is little reason to suggest this one won’t follow suit.
The somewhat loose nature in which Cam Ward plays the quarterback position has its benefits and drawbacks, both of which have been on display throughout this season. The benefit is that it never really feels like Miami has lost control of games, even ones in which the Hurricanes are trailing. The downside is that for as many spectacular plays that Ward has made, he has a healthy handful of ones that coaches and fans wish he’d have given some more thought to as well. Shooters gonna shoot, I suppose. Luckily for the Hurricanes, Syracuse isn’t particularly opportunistic defensively and it would be unwise to assume that the Orange will flip this game thanks to turnovers. Rather, earlier performances would suggest that Syracuse will look to play Miami straight up, given that nearly no one is better at moving the football through the air. It’s a tall task for Kyle McCord, who himself has been on the wrong side of some turnover-heavy games. While the Orange are playing at home and won’t be intimidated by a shootout, Miami has enough talent on the defensive end to stop McCord a few times and maintain control of this game.
My Pick: 38-28 Miami (does not cover -10.5 spread)
Zach’s Take: Kyle McCord keeps getting clipped on the Dan Patrick Show for his previous interview where he sighs before he answers a question, and I die laughing every time. Some might say the U has a “trap game” here but I don’t see it at all. Syracuse is overall unimpressive as a team, so the U takes the win.
Miami – 28, Syracuse – 14
#3 Texas at #20 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
One of the best things that Texas’s move to the SEC has brought college football as a whole is a return of the Lone Star Showdown. Idle since 2011, it has been even longer since both teams came into the rivalry matchup as ranked teams (2004). The Aggies were incredibly close to rolling into this game as a Top 10 team, but Auburn had other plans last weekend. Now, Texas A&M needs a miracle to climb back into Playoff contention, but such an opportunity has landed on its doorstep. Texas is generally regarded as one of the best teams in college football despite still seeking a win over a ranked opponent, and starting quarterback Quinn Ewers may be less than 100 percent healthy heading into this game.
The Aggies have been far from perfect this season, but one thing that Mike Elko’s team has been able to do on multiple occasions is weed out fraudulent teams in the SEC. Twice already this season Texas A&M has pummeled higher ranked opponents that were unable to slow down its rushing attack, one of the more potent in the country. Texas has been adept at stopping the run this season, but has yet to face an opponent inside the top 30 nationally in rushing yards per game. If the Aggies are able to get a push up front, they will have an excellent opportunity to apply a ton of pressure on whomever is taking snaps for Texas to do more with fewer possessions. Texas A&M has taken good care of the football this season and favors possession of the football, meaning that the Longhorns may not get a ton of the football. Ewers, or Arch Manning if it comes down to it, will need to step up and hammer a Texas A&M secondary that has been shaky at times. If they don’t, the Aggies will be in position to make things laughably difficult for the Playoff Committee when making at-large selections in early December.
My Pick: 30-27 Texas A&M (covers +5 spread)
Zach’s Take: Again, is the SEC overrated? Arch Manning has taken the reigns (much to Quinn Ewers’ dismay) and Texas still looks strong. I like Mike Elko, but A&M has been a HUGE dud this year (no, beating LSU and Mizzou means nothing). Plus, their whole cult fan base is weird.
Texas – 31, A&M – 21
#24 Kansas State at #18 Iowa State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – FOX)
The Big 12 has been a chaos pot for about a month now and these two programs have been right in the thick of it. November has not been kind to either Iowa State or Kansas State, as both have suffered multiple defeats to unranked opponents during that time. Worse yet is that these losses have been incredibly detrimental to each team’s Playoff and conference title chances, so much so that Kansas State went from league title favorite to general afterthought in the span of three weeks. Iowa State still maintains a shot at reaching the Big 12 Championship game but will need some help to get there. Given the turmoil that it has experienced recently, the Wildcats wouldn’t normally feel like a great bet to play spoiler but certainly have the talent to do so. The Cyclones’ recent performances also suggest they are on shaky ground heading into this important matchup.
This is a tough one to call, if only because everything that each team does well will contend directly with an area that the other struggles. Kansas State is at its best when the run game is working, and against Iowa State (second worst run defense in the Big 12) it should find at least some success. The Cyclones would prefer to air it out, and will likely do so often against a Wildcats defense that has had its issues stopping the pass. However, while each team has its area of weakness defensively, both teams have won games in which one would expect such a weakness to result in a loss. Kansas State beat Colorado while allowing nearly 400 yards passing, and Iowa State beat UCF surrendering over 350 yards on the ground. With little to separate the two teams from each other, it is worth mentioning that in all of its losses Kansas State failed to score at least 20 points, while Iowa State still engaged in a shootout in one of its defeats. The Cyclones have shown the ability to win multiple types of games and enjoy the slight advantage of being at home as well.
My Pick: 35-31 Iowa State (covers -2.5 spread)
Zach’s Take: Iowa State on all accords has had a very Iowa State football season. Losses to KU (who seems to have played the part of David well recently) and Texas Tech, but beating the Hawkeyes on the road to start the season have put them in the Top 25. Playoff contender? By no means, but still a fun bowl game for them is on the horizon. A big win for K-State against Colorado earlier in the season put them on the map a bit, but haven’t done much since.
ISU – 24, K-State – 21
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Miami (OH) at Bowling Green (Friday, 12 PM ET – ESPNU)
A spot in the MAC title game is on the line in this game, with both the Redhawks and Falcons sitting at 6-1 in league play. Only an Ohio loss at home to Ball State presents a situation where this matchup would be a first of two legs.
Zach’s Take: Miami – 20, BG – 21
Liberty at Sam Houston State (Friday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)
Though not quite as straightforward as the above MAC game, this battle between Conference USA foes will still decide who will be Jacksonville State’s opponent in the league title game. If Liberty wins, it is in. If Sam Houston State wins, the Bearkats will still need Western Kentucky to lose to Jacksonville State in order to go to the conference title game. Got all that?
Zach’s Take: Liberty – 38, SHST – 44
#8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
It has been a decade since this matchup produced a truly competitive game, but that streak should come to an end this year. Tennessee cannot qualify for the SEC title game, but still has a very good chance of making the Playoff with a victory. The Commodores already have a marquee victory on their resume this season, but a win over the Volunteers would almost surely knock Tennessee out of Playoff contention, a sweet cherry on top of an already wild season for Vanderbilt.
Zach’s Take: Tennessee – 35, Vandy – 28
#5 Notre Dame at Southern Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
No rivalry week is complete without a shout out to the battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh, which has major Playoff implications thanks to Notre Dame’s current status. Despite an early season loss to Northern Illinois, it is the Trojans that would truly spoil a bid for the Fighting Irish to be part of the inaugural expanded Playoff field.
Zach’s Take: ND – 17, USC – 3
#16 Arizona State at Arizona (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – FOX)
Before the season began, this game would not have been on the radar of the casual fan. But thanks to Arizona State’s renaissance under Kenny Dillingham, the Sun Devils are in a “just win and you’re in” situation regarding the Big 12 title game. The Wildcats, which have won just one game since the beginning of October, will look to create the same type of chaos that their in-state rivals already have this year.
Zach’s Take: ASU – 48, U of A – 34
