The Week 12 slate didn’t look as appealing as earlier weeks in the season, at least on paper, but as is normally the case in college football, that didn’t stop there from being plenty of action worth watching throughout the weekend.
Some teams in green may have punch their tickets to conference title games, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how things will shake out in the Big 12 and SEC over the course of the final two weeks of the regular season. November football is far from disappointing the viewers – but really, when has it ever?
In the head-to-head prediction game, Jack and I were far enough apart with our predictions to make things interesting, but at the end of Saturday things were all knotted up for the week.
The current records after Week 12:
K. Becks – 41-19 SU, 33-27 ATS
Guests – 39-21 SU, 31-29 ATS
This week, my buddy Matt (different one than earlier in the year) will look to bring the guests a bit closer in the penultimate weekend of the regular season, so that Rivalry Week can be equally nerve wracking for both sides. In his words, his predictions are “brought to you by many prompts to AI and a personal touch”, so I may be screwed.
Before we look at Week 13, let’s take a quick look back at the previous weekend.
3 Things We Learned in Week 12
The Mean Green have quietly become the gold standard in the AAC
It would have been hard to predict Tulane’s ascendence to the top of the AAC. Just three seasons ago, the Green Wave finished 2-10 in Willie Fritz’s first year as head coach with the program and hadn’t won more than eight games since the historic 1998 campaign. Fast forward to the present, and Fritz has already moved on, but the program continues to flourish. Last week the Green Wave secured its third straight appearance in the AAC title game with two games remaining in the regular season, and can reach at least 10 wins for the third consecutive season with just one more victory.
The conference has seen its fair share of dominant streaks (both Cincinnati from 2019-2021 and Memphis from 2017-2019 reached three straight conference title games), but only the Green Wave have been able to achieve such success both during and after a prominent coaching change. Such continuity suggests that the road to the championship could run through New Orleans for quite some time.
The Big 12 title race is getting better every week
It was becoming evident as early as mid-October that the Big 12 title race was going to be difficult to call, but things really started ceding to chaos the first weekend of November, when both Iowa State and Kansas State fell to unranked opponents. One week later, the Cyclones fell to an unranked yet again, and it took a controversial call and late-game drive for BYU to survive the Holy War. Last weekend, the Cougars’ luck finally ran out against an underrated Kansas squad, and Kansas State surrendered control of its own destiny in terms of a conference title game berth when it lost at home to Arizona State.
As of this week, two teams (BYU and Colorado) that many pundits predicted wouldn’t finish the season above .500 currently sit No. 1 and 2 in the league. Arizona State, which finished last season 3-9 and wasn’t expected to do a whole lot better, sits right behind those two with a chance to leapfrog BYU thanks to a head-to-head matchup this weekend. The teams might not be at the top of the CFP rankings, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t entertaining storylines coming out of this conference.
Thanks to the expanded Playoff, the role of ‘spoiler’ has been broadened, too
At one time there was an argument, weak as it may be, suggesting that an expanded Playoff would dilute the importance of regular season games. The thinking was that allowing more than several teams to earn a spot at the table would mean that the big ticket matchups in October and November, which have historically come to define many college football seasons, would no longer carry the weight that they once had, rendering them less memorable. Oh, how wrong that take turned out to be.
Last week, a 4-5 Florida team buried any chances that a three-loss LSU team had at making the Playoff, and an unranked Arizona State squad took down a No. 16 ranked Kansas State squad that was very much still in the thick of a race to earn an automatic bid to the 12-team dance. Rather than dilute the regular season’s importance, the 12-team Playoff has actually increased the number of games with true postseason relevance, thus increasing the number of teams that can play with a cause.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#5 Indiana at #2 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
It has been an incredible ride for the Hoosiers this season – defying preseason expectations to wind up as the top scoring offense in the Big Ten through more than 80 percent of the regular season. Curt Cignetti has continued to be bold and brash throughout it all, bringing well deserved attention to a program that normally takes a backseat to its school’s basketball team by this point in the year. There are no arguments against Indiana’s No. 5 ranking from Around The Corn at this point, but this weekend the Hoosiers finally get the chance to prove their worth on the field. To date, the best win for Cignetti’s crew in 2024 is over a 5-5 Michigan team that has struggled to score. The Buckeyes are second in the Big Ten, behind only to the Hoosiers, in scoring offense this season.
News out of Columbus this week that has spooked the Buckeye faithful concerns starting center Seth McLaughlin, who has been ruled out for the season with an Achilles injury. Though McLaughlin has proven to be an excellent pickup (through the portal from Alabama) for the Buckeyes, he will be capably replaced by Carson Hinzman, who started at center for Ohio State last season. The Buckeyes should still be able to move the football against the Hoosiers, which is good because this game will be all about offense. As good as Ohio State’s defense truly is, great offense will beat great defense at times throughout the course of a game, and despite doing it with some unheralded players, Indiana’s offense is potent. I expect Indiana to find the endzone at least a couple of times in this game, but as long as Ohio State is able to move the football on the ground, something it was able to do against one of the best run defenses in the country a few weeks ago, the Buckeyes should be OK in this one. Hoosiers fans will feel slighted reading this, but Ohio State is too talented not to win this game in an arrogant fashion (i.e. no frills, just disciplined football) even though on paper these two teams seem comparable.
My Pick: 35-20 Ohio State (covers -11.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Ohio State 38, Indiana 20
Ohio State is like that crisp, refreshing IPA you get at a brewery where the bartender’s got a beard down to his belly button and a mysterious aura. It’s bold, hoppy, and hits you with a punch. Indiana? They’re more like a light lager – drinkable, easy to enjoy, but after a couple sips, you start asking, “Is this it?” The Hoosiers may put up a fight, but Ohio State’s offensive firepower will go down smoother than an ice-cold beer on a hot day. Indiana will be like that guy who shows up at a beer pong table thinking he’s going to win with a cheap brew. Spoiler: He’s not.
#14 BYU at #21 Arizona State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The coming out party for the Sun Devils was last week, as Kenny Dillingham’s team shot out to a 21-point lead that ultimately proved to be insurmountable for the hosts Kansas State. Arizona State was clearly fired up for that game, which presented opportunity to throw a wrench into the Big 12 title conversation, obviously a factor not lost upon the visiting team. Now the Sun Devils get to return to Tempe to welcome a reeling BYU, which was shocked by Kansas last weekend, putting not only its Playoff hopes at-large but its conference title chances in real danger.
BYU has been living on the edge for quite some time, engaging in single score affairs in half of its 10 games this season. Up until last week, the Cougars had managed to escape the previous four of them victorious. Naturally, in close games turnovers can have a major impact on outcomes. The Cougars have generally been excellent at taking care of the football this season, but in over half of those one score affairs, they have turned the ball over multiple times. Arizona State is the only team in the Big 12 that can match BYU’s turnover margin, and similarly has taken good care of the football this season. The Sun Devils like to move the football on the ground, helping matters to some extent, though Sam Leavitt has been great as a freshman, tossing just four interceptions all season. Neither team is uncomfortable operating in an environment where points come at a premium, making turnovers all the more important in this game. I expect Coach Dillingham and the team’s energy to carry over from last weekend into this contest and for the Sun Devils to put BYU’s Playoff bid chances on life support.
My Pick: 24-20 Arizona State (covers -3 spread)
Matt’s Take: BYU 28, Arizona State 24
BYU is like a craft beer from a small, quirky brewery in the mountains – complex, smooth, and when it hits, you know it’s the real deal. Arizona State? They’re like that beer that you saw in the store once, and it was kind of cool until you realized it’s just another mass-produced pale ale, hoping to be edgy. BYU’s offense has all the right ingredients—like that perfect, balanced brew that never lets you down. Arizona State’s defense will be like the flat beer you forgot in your fridge—lacking fizz, not keeping up, and leaving you with a bad taste in your mouth. BYU will take it in a tight one, but it’ll be the kind of win that has Arizona State questioning their beer selection for the next few years.
#4 Penn State at Minnesota (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
Except for the Iowa game in mid-September, the Golden Gophers have not lost a contest by more than a touchdown this season. In classic P.J. Fleck fashion, Minnesota is achieving positive results by doing more with less and going about its business without flashiness (Row The Boat, am I right?). If the Golden Gophers had a better record, it may be even more reasonable to compare them to – well, Penn State. The gold standard for taking care of business it should is James Franklin’s team, which is in great position to make the inaugural 12-team Playoff without a marquee victory to its name. This clash feels like a potential trap game, though, as Fleck’s squad is already bowl eligible and would love nothing more than to put a damper on Penn State’s postseason plans.
To assert that Minnesota will have to lean on its defense to stay competitive in this game is far from a hot take. The Golden Gophers don’t really have the offensive firepower to overwhelm Penn State, and if Minnesota happens to be protecting a second half lead, things could get dicey as the running game has been a weakness this season. That being said, Fleck’s squad has managed to muck it up with most teams on its schedule and even outlasted Illinois at its own game a few weeks back, a team that I gained a lot of respect for earlier in the year. While there isn’t a lot on paper to back Minnesota’s ability to hang with Penn State in this one, it is on a hunch that I think it will be closer than most people think. Penn State has everything in front of it, including probably not even needing to make the Big Ten title game to make the Playoff in comfortable fashion. But on a cold, November Saturday in Minneapolis, anything can happen.
My Pick: 27-24 Penn State (does not cover -11.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Penn State 35, Minnesota 14
Penn State is like a high-end stout – dark, intense, and packed with so much flavor that by the time you’re done with it, you’re like, “Wow, that was worth every sip.” Minnesota is that beer you find at a gas station when you’re desperate – mediocre, slightly skunky, and kind of like it was brewed in a bathtub. Penn State’s defense is as smooth as the perfect pour of Guinness, while Minnesota’s offense is more like a cheap, watered-down pilsner: it’s there, but it’s not doing much. Penn State will dominate this game like a stout at a beer-tasting competition, leaving Minnesota wondering how it ended up at the kids’ table.
#16 Colorado at Kansas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – FOX)
Hear me out – the Jayhawks have a strong argument for being the most underrated sub-.500 team in the country. A list of Kansas’s accolades – no losses by more than 11 points, less than a touchdown loss to every ranked team it has succumbed to, and a current two-game winning streak over currently ranked Iowa State and BYU. The Jayhawks got off to a slow start, but are putting things together during the back half of the season and have recently played a huge role in defining the current landscape of the Big 12 title race. This weekend Lance Leipold’s squad will maintain that role, welcoming league leaders Colorado to Lawrence.
Kansas may be underrated this season, but up until recently no one was paying much attention to the Buffaloes, either. The difference in Colorado’s case is that it just kept on winning while in the dark. One of the biggest differences between this year’s team compared with last season is the defensive line, which has been much better at applying pressure (the Buffaloes currently lead the Big 12 with 33 sacks). This aspect will be key for both teams in this one – Kansas has allowed the fewest sacks all season, in no small part thanks to the athleticism of Jalon Daniels at quarterback. The Jayhawks aren’t bad themselves at getting to the quarterback, either, and pass protection is a general weakness of the Colorado offense. Kansas can keep this game very close if it disrupts Shedeur Sanders in the pocket and is able to keep him off the field thanks to long spells of possession dominated by the rushing game. I expect Kansas gaining confidence in itself over the past few weeks will play a part, but Colorado is flying high as well and I expect the Buffs will do enough to avoid disappointment on the road.
My Pick: 45-37 Colorado (covers -3 spread)
Matt’s Take: Colorado 31, Kansas 20
Colorado is that craft brew you never knew you needed—bold, refreshing, and always a crowd-pleaser. Kansas? They’re like a fruity, sparkling seltzer – light, fun at first, but after a few cans, you’re wondering if you actually got drunk or just hydrated. Colorado’s offense hits hard like a barrel-aged bourbon, smooth and potent, while Kansas’ defense is like a watered-down beer that you drink at a tailgate just because it’s cold. Kansas will have moments where you think they’re onto something, but ultimately, Colorado will finish strong, just like that last cold, crisp beer you save for the end of the night.
#19 Army vs. #6 Notre Dame [game in Bronx, NY] (Saturday, 7 PM ET – NBC)
Yes, Army and Notre Dame will be playing a football game with national relevance in New York City this Saturday. No, you did not teleport back to the 1940s. Joke aside, it truly has been about eight decades since this matchup was on the radar of every college football fan, and the game was traditionally played in New York City until 1947. Back in those days, this rivalry game would have had national title implications almost annually, and to an extent you can make the argument that this year’s edition does, too. On Saturday evening in Yankee Stadium, this classic battle is thrust back into the spotlight, where the undefeated Black Knights will look for their first victory over the Fighting Irish since 1958.
This season’s Army team is without a doubt the best service academy program that we have seen in at least a quarter century. What is impressive about the Black Knights is how capable its option offense is at completely taking the air out of the ball, even in high pressure situations. Typically that is an advantage of a well-run option attack, but this one is elite. I have mentioned on more than one occasion that I was sold on this Army team when it was able to take down North Texas, which has a potent offense in its own right, by milking nearly 14 minutes off the clock with a single offensive possession, ultimately ending with a touchdown. If the Black Knights can stay on schedule and keep the chains moving in that fashion, Notre Dame would only get a handful of possessions all game. Though I hope to some extent that I am wrong, I do think the Fighting Irish can do enough defensively to give themselves a few “bonus” possessions to put real pressure on the Black Knights to score quickly. We haven’t seen Army trail much this season, and if that is the story in the second half of this game, it will be tough for the Black Knights to pull off an upset.
My Pick: 24-12 Notre Dame (does not cover -14.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Notre Dame 30, Army 14
Army is like a craft beer that you know tries really hard, but somehow ends up being a bit too experimental – like the peanut butter and jalapeno stout that you tried once and haven’t bought since. Notre Dame? They’re like the classic, reliable lager that’s been in your fridge for years, and it’s always the best choice. Notre Dame’s defense is like a cold, refreshing lager that never disappoints—consistently crisp and always tackling the right things. Army’s triple-option offense is like that weird beer flavor you’ll try once, but after a few sips, you’re like, “Maybe I should just stick with the lager.” Army will fight hard, but Notre Dame’s too seasoned and smooth to let them win this one. The Irish are going to take this game like it’s their go-to brew: dependable, satisfying, and a perfect end to the evening.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#24 UNLV at San Jose State (Friday, 10 PM ET – FS1)
The Rebels have quietly made their way into the CFP rankings, and deservedly so. UNLV would be an incredibly tough matchup for current MWC leaders Boise State, but unfortunately for Barry Odom’s team, it doesn’t control its own destiny in terms of a conference title game berth. A victory over a solid San Jose State team won’t hurt its status in the rankings, however.
#9 Mississippi at Florida (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
A team at one time seemingly headed for a midseason coaching change has pulled it together as of late, most recently putting the nail in LSU’s Playoff hopes coffin. The Gators can play spoiler once again by taking down a Mississippi squad that, despite boasting perhaps the most impressive victory in college football (a 28-10 masterclass over Georgia), is a loss away itself from missing the Playoff.
#7 Alabama at Oklahoma (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
The Sooners have done little offensively all season to instill any confidence that they can upset the Crimson Tide, but it would just be so November college football for something like that to happen, wouldn’t it?
#22 Iowa State at Utah (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – FOX)
Two losses in its last three games was surprising and briefly knocked Iowa State out of the Top 25, but the chaos of the Big 12 has still provided the Cyclones a chance to sneak back into the conference title game with two regular season weekends to go. Utah’s season has been a nightmare but the Utes could bring back some of the good vibes by finally playing spoiler to a contender.
Colorado State at Fresno State (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)
The Rams have taken full advantage of no Boise State or UNLV on the schedule, running the table in the MWC thus far and controlling its own destiny in terms of a conference title game appearance. Things won’t come easily against the Bulldogs, which tout one of the conference’s best defenses.
