Take a breath – Rivalry Week is over.
It was a hotly contested one, with plenty of games coming down to the wire, a number of results shaking up the College Football Playoff picture just over a week prior to the bracket being set, and tempers flaring across the country.
I have been adamant that, while the expanded Playoff can dilute the value of some rivalry games depending on the circumstances, it isn’t taking away from the emotions felt by the players actually partaking in those games. More than anything else, the emotions felt are what have made most of these games “can’t miss” dates on the schedule for years prior to the Playoff, and will continue to do so for years to come.
In the head-to-head prediction game, Zach’s valiant effort was not quite enough to bring the guests back in either the straight up or against the spread categories.
The final records after Week 14:
K. Becks – 46-23 SU, 38-31 ATS
Guests – 44-25 SU, 35-34 ATS
This week, I’ve invited the guests from throughout this regular season to cherry pick their favorite matchups. Hopefully, they and you readers will be back for Around The Corn’s coverage of bowl season as well.
Before we look at Championship Week in all its glory, let’s take a trip down the very memorable lane that was Rivalry Week.
3 Things We Learned in Rivalry Week
Ryan Day has a “Prove It” problem
This isn’t the indictment you think it is. Given that the goalposts have moved, The Game has realistically lost some of the weight it carried five, three, even a single decade ago. But that didn’t stop Ohio State fans from calling for Day’s head moments after the Buckeyes lost to 6-5 Michigan last Saturday, Day’s fourth loss to the hated rivals up North in the past five seasons and without a doubt the most surprising one. Legends have been created at both schools in The Game, and Day’s track record has been anything but legendary.
But the reality is, Ohio State is still perceived to be one of the top teams in college football and won’t miss out on this year’s Playoff. He isn’t going to be canned because of a bad performance against Michigan, and he won’t be if he doesn’t win next year’s game against the Wolverines, either. The Game no longer sends the victor to the biggest game of the season, no longer dictates national titles and therefore doesn’t largely influence job status. This is a change from the way things used to be. The fans think Ryan Day has something to prove against Michigan, and that’s the biggest problem in this narrative.
Forget backing it up; Dabo is backing in
Following its 34-3 drubbing at the hands of Georgia to start the season, Clemson faded out of the national spotlight for awhile. It wasn’t necessarily the worst thing in the world for the Tigers, as Dabo Swinney’s team was actually doing decent things in the dark. But as soon as Clemson started getting mentioned by the national media again, things seemed to fall apart. Two losses in the month of November, including last week’s loss to South Carolina, put a damper on a season in which Dabo had promised big things as far back as 2023.
Despite the limp to the finish line, the Tigers are still playing for an ACC title and, if they win this weekend, will guarantee themselves a spot in the Playoff. Imagine saying that in previous years about a team that finished the regular season 2-2 against FBS competition.
Plant a flag, drop the gloves
The reality is that Rivalry Week no longer carries the “practical” weight that it once did, such as representing the difference between an early end to the season and a trip to a big bowl game. But while practicality can adjust at lightning speed, the emotions associated with such realities can be much slower to change. This past weekend the emotions were on full display, where up to 11 contests saw extracurricular activity occur before, during or after the game. Many of these games had nothing practical on the line.
Though Around The Corn isn’t condoning such actions, it’s understandable to say the least. The tradition associated with rivalry games is the foundation of the college game, and as the Playoff situation continues to develop will represent one of the key (and ever decreasing) aspects separating it from the NFL. Keep the gloves on, perhaps, but the associated emotions are still welcome.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#20 UNLV at #10 Boise State (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
The Mountain West Conference title game figures to be one of the most interesting matchups of the entire week for a number of reasons. First, despite Boise State’s ascendence up the rankings and Ashton Jeanty’s tremendous season, many people across the country haven’t actually gotten to watch much of the Broncos (thanks a lot, CBS Sports Network). Second, this is a rematch of a regular season game, where the Broncos narrowly got the best of a talented UNLV squad. And lastly, an upset victory by the Rebels thrusts an uncomfortable dilemma into the faces of the Playoff Committee. If UNLV wins this game, it will presumably capture the G5’s automatic bid to the Playoff. But what of Boise State, a team already in the Top 12 playing in its conference title game, a distinction that Committee chair Warde Manuel noted comes with “a lot of value”?
Beating a team twice in the same season is an incredibly difficult thing to do in college football, and Boise State played a very clean game in Round 1 to beat UNLV. The Broncos outgained the Rebels overall, didn’t turn the ball over once and gradually chipped away at an early deficit by scoring in all four quarters to take down UNLV in Las Vegas. This is one of the rare instances where each team will likely run it back and simply try to improve upon the things it did well last time to produce the desired outcome. UNLV held Boise State as a whole to its lowest rushing output of the season (185 yards), but don’t expect a heavy dose of Ashton Jeanty not to be on the menu in this one. In the end, the stakes are high for both teams as the winner will head to the Playoff, and the Broncos have the added advantage of playing on the blue turf this time around. It should be a great game between two solid outfits, but the home team will prevail if it plays to its capability.
My Pick: 28-21 Boise State (covers -4.5 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Boise State 31 UNLV 13
#16 Iowa State vs. #15 Arizona State [game in Arlington, TX] (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The chaos that was the Big 12 regular season has finally concluded, and what ended up in the title game very few could have predicted correctly. On one side is the Iowa State Cyclones, at best considered a dark horse title candidate in the preseason led by a head coach in Matt Campbell that, while highly regarded both in an outside of coaching circles, has never led a team to an outright conference title. On the other side is the Arizona State Sun Devils, a program that two years ago was reeling from the consequences of the Herm Edwards era, picked by most accounts to finish near or at the bottom of the Big 12 this season, and led by a guy in Kenny Dillingham with far more energy than head coaching experience. Despite the zig-zagging paths of both to get to Jerry’s World, one of them will be lifting hardware on Saturday afternoon and dancing into the inaugural College Football Playoff.
The trajectory of each squad over the past month is notable. Iowa State, through its first seven games unbeaten, tripped up in back-to-back weeks at the beginning of November and had to rely on the tiebreaker scenario to wind up in this game. During the second half of the season the Cyclones’ offensive output has plummeted, as opposing defenses have found a way to contain what was once a very dangerous rushing attack. Arizona State, on the other hand, has been playing with what feels like house money the second half of the season and has lost just once since the end of September. The offense has established a nice pace, is complex enough to prevent teams from stuffing the box or playing too much zone coverage, and has gamers such as running back Cam Skattebo. Perhaps the most interesting matchup in this game will be Iowa State’s running game versus the Arizona State front, which has helped the Sun Devils become the second best run defense in the conference. Coach Dillingham may be young, but he isn’t dumb and has elevated a program that was fairly recently in need of the energy he has brought to it. I see the Sun Devils riding the current high right into the Playoff with a victory in Arlington.
My Pick: 30-23 Arizona State (covers -2 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Arizona State 27 Iowa State 24
#5 Georgia vs. #2 Texas [game in Atlanta] (Saturday, 4 PM ET – ABC)
A juxtaposition as compared with the Big 12 in terms of regular season chaos, the SEC ended up sorting itself out rather predictably, with the top two ranked teams from the conference in both preseason polls qualifying for a neutral site rematch in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have taken their lumps at times this season and appear to be a far cry from the Georgia teams of the past few years that have been head and shoulders above the rest of college football, but are still dangerous when playing to their potential. The Longhorns were anointed one of this season’s most talented squads early in the campaign, and several close calls throughout the fall were not enough for most to waver from that opinion. Both appear to be firmly amongst the 12 that will participate in the Playoff, win or lose this game, but a lot still rides on the outcome of this game in terms of seeding.
What Georgia was able to do in Austin the last time these two battled was impressive for reasons beyond what read on the scoreboard. Paramount amongst those reasons are the three rushing touchdowns that the Bulldogs scored on a Texas defense that has only given up nine scores on the ground all season. All three touchdowns were scored by Trevor Etienne, who remains questionable for this game. Georgia has deployed a suspect run game most of the season and produced a result similar to the Texas game only one other time (against UMass). Add the unusual quarterback controversy/benching fiasco that seemingly brewed from nothing for the Longhorns and throw in the four turnovers committed for good measure, and you’ve effectively described Texas’s only bad performance of the season. Assuming that Steve Sarkisian has his team prepared properly, the Longhorns should take better care of the football and not be gashed by Georgia’s rushing attack this time around. If those things happen, Texas will win the SEC in its first season as a member of the conference.
My Pick: 27-18 Texas (covers -2.5 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Texas 31 Georgia 17
#3 Penn State vs. #1 Oregon [game in Indianapolis] (Saturday, 8 PM ET – CBS)
The Ducks are the only team in the country without a blemish on their record, boast two victories over Top 10 teams in the current CFP rankings (and another over a third team ranked in the Top 25, for good measure) and have generally looked the part as the nation’s undisputed top team. Not surprisingly to Around The Corn, the Nittany Lions did this season what they are known to do under James Franklin, taking care of business against inferior opponents and losing close to the one more aligned in terms of talent. That was always going to be enough to get the Nittany Lions into the Playoff, but as an added bonus Penn State can now capture a Big Ten title and Playoff bye with a victory in this game. James Franklin will need to overcome demons in order to do so against an opposing head coach that isn’t afraid to take chances in big spots.
This game being played in the friendly confines of a temperature and weather-controlled facility should allow us to see the best of what both teams have to offer on offense. Both coaches should feel good about those prospects, as the Ducks and Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten in terms of total offense per game. Penn State has been able to control the pace of contests thanks to its potent run game, but tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as an X-factor this season and is difficult to contain given his athleticism at the position. Oregon struggled against Michigan tight end stud Colston Loveland earlier in the year, so Warren could end up playing a pivotal role in this game. The Nittany Lions do appear to be set up to give Oregon its most difficult test since Ohio State, though it has been made apparent that while James Franklin prefers to play straight up, Dan Lanning isn’t afraid to throw in a little flair. I believe Lanning and the Ducks would like to make a point by winning the Big Ten in Oregon’s first year as part of the conference, and that motivation may be responsible for whatever tricks Lanning has up his sleeve (and won’t be shy about using). Expect a back-and-forth affair with the Nittany Lions winning only if whatever cleverness the Ducks have in store backfires on them.
My Pick: 35-31 Oregon (covers -3.5 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Oregon 31 Penn State 14
#17 Clemson vs. #8 SMU [game in Charlotte, NC] (Saturday, 8 PM ET – ABC)
Like the Mountain West decider on Friday night, the ACC title game could present an interesting conundrum for the Playoff Committee. Conference debutante SMU has perhaps surprised many this year, coming within a field goal of a perfect regular season campaign and allowing 30 points to an opponent just once. It felt very much like the Mustangs’ brand held the team back from climbing even higher in the rankings, but none of that will matter if the team can get by the ACC’s gold standard over the past decade, Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers. Benefactors of a surprising loss by Miami to end the regular season, the Tigers will bring into question Warde Manuel’s statement about high value being placed with teams that made its conference title game if Clemson is able to upset the higher ranked Mustangs.
For those that may not know much about the Mustangs, Rhett Lashlee’s team is potent offensively but really shines on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fourth nationally at stopping the run. Given this information, it is important to note that that Clemson leads the ACC in rushing yards per game. In both cases the statistics could be misleading, however. SMU has yet to face a rushing offense better than Louisville (No. 41 nationally) and the Tigers have been inconsistent to say the least, twice being held to under 60 yards rushing in a game. I think that more focus needs to be placed on the play of the two quarterbacks in this game. SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been a much better passer in 2024 than he was last season, improving his accuracy from under 60 percent to just a hair under 67 percent. Cade Klubnik hasn’t always lived up to the high expectations for him, but has on the whole had an excellent season and has a better TD-to-INT ratio than every ACC quarterback except Haynes King, who has thrown fewer than half the touchdowns that Klubnik has. In the end, I do think there is something to be said for having “been there before”, and Dabo Swinney knows what it takes to win a championship. This is the best opportunity for an upset during Championship Week and Clemson will make good on it, forcing SMU to play a very unenviable waiting game regarding its Playoff hopes.
My Pick: 24-22 Clemson (covers +2 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: SMU 28 Clemson 20
Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Friday, 7 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)
It took the Gamecocks just two years as full-fledged FBS members to reach a conference title game, where they will be looking to stave off a Western Kentucky squad looking for the program’s first C-USA crown since 2016.
Grandpa’s Take: Jacksonville State 21 Western Kentucky 17
Tulane at #24 Army (Friday, 8 PM ET – ABC)
The Green Wave dropped out of the Top 25 this week after a loss to Memphis, but will likely give Army’s defense all it can handle on Friday evening. The Black Knights have enjoyed a dream season to date, but can add to it even before the Army-Navy battle with a league title in their first year back in a conference in 20 years.
Grandpa’s Take: Army 31 Tulane 17
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) [game in Detroit] (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
Who said Rivalry Week had to end? These bitter in-state rivals will face off in Detroit for the first time ever to see who takes the MAC crown. In this season’s first meeting, the defending conference champion Redhawks got the best of the Bobcats in Oxford.
Grandpa’s Take: Miami OH 27 Ohio Univ 13
Marshall at Louisiana (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)
It took Marshall’s proud football program just three years to reach the Sun Belt’s conference title game, an event that the Ragin’ Cajuns have participated in just once since its inception in 2018. The Thundering Herd is seeking an outright title in a third different FBS conference. Winners of the 2021 edition of this game, Louisiana will be looking to make it two outright Sun Belt crowns in program history.
Grandpa’s Take: Louisiana 27 Marshall 10
