The first weekend of college football action post-Playoff rankings did not disappoint.
While a lot was learned through the results of the weekend, the unpredictability of future results has presented a situation where the outlook is muddier than it seemed prior to Week 11.
The thought heading into the season was that 12 spots would be more than enough to dampen the complaints from teams “left out” of the Playoff, but as the time to choose gets closer, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the noise from outside the party will still be loud.
Focusing on the head-to-head prediction game, it was a rough week for the guests as the lead against the spread was relinquished and the straight up lead was widened ever so slightly.
The current records after Week 11:
K. Becks – 37-18 SU, 30-25 ATS
Guests – 35-20 SU, 28-27 ATS
This week, my buddy Jack was kind enough to share his thoughts on short notice. Often times, those off-the-cuff thoughts are the ones prove to be the most accurate. It’ll be needed if the guests want to try to cut into my lead with just a few weeks in the regular season remaining.
A note from Jack: “As a general note about the guest picker this week, selected winners were heavily influenced by the whim of a two-year-old who regularly exclaim ‘they fell down’ when players make a tackle in the open field.”
Before we dive into Week 12, let’s briefly review what we learned last week.
3 Things We Learned in Week 11
It may be better to be lucky than good, but luck doesn’t last forever
It has felt for some time that the Miami unbeaten streak was living on borrowed time, and that the Hurricanes were going to fall at some point during the regular season. Mario Cristobal’s team has survived an overturned Hail Mary touchdown, a 25-point second half deficit on the road and several games in which it allowed at least 30 points to the opponent. However, it was an underlying weakness (stopping the run) which finally caught up to the Hurricanes last Saturday.
Haynes King wasn’t 100 percent, but he was healthy enough to amass 93 yards on the ground and was a perfect six for six in the passing game, an area which was shared magnificently by King and freshman Aaron Philo. The Yellow Jackets’ ground game success ensured that they won the time of possession battle by over nine minutes, which proved decisive in the one possession game. Though Miami’s demeanor seemed calm up until the strip sack of Cam Ward that put the nail in the coffin, it never felt like the Hurricanes were in control of the outcome.
Decisions regarding two-loss SEC teams are going to be difficult for the Playoff committee
At the time of writing, the following SEC teams have two losses on the season: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas A&M. One loss Tennessee plays Georgia this coming Saturday, and one loss Texas plays Texas A&M to end the regular season. Thus, there is a world where seven SEC teams enter conference championship weekend with two losses, likely spread out somewhere between No. 3 and No. 16 in the CFP Rankings.
It has long been a foregone conclusion that the SEC would be getting an unproportional number of the at-large bids to the 12-team Playoff compared with other conferences, but perhaps foolishly assumed that there wouldn’t be incredibly difficult decisions made at the cutoff mark. With this many teams from college football’s most competitive conference still in the fold, the expectation should be reset. Selection committee chair Warde Manuel will almost certainly be spending the majority of the afternoon following the Playoff selections defending choices made about a handful of these teams.
Whether on the battlefield or the gridiron, Army controls the ground
Here’s a couple of fun facts you may not have known about Army football: the Black Knights currently hold the longest winning streak in FBS at 13 games. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that Army had not trailed during that streak until last Saturday at North Texas, when the Mean Green hopped out to a 3-0 lead. The Black Knights didn’t waver in the face of adversity, however. Despite facing the nation’s passing leader Chandler Morris, Army trusted its ground game and orchestrated an incredible 21-play, 94 yard drive that lasted nearly 14 minutes, capped off by a touchdown to take a commanding 14-3 lead in the fourth quarter, an advantage it did not relinquish.
To add to the adversity, North Texas threw everything it could (literally) at the Black Knights defense, twice being picked off in the end zone. I said last week that this game would be a test for Army, albeit one that would likely go unnoticed by the majority of the country. Here’s to doing my part to make sure it doesn’t remain that way.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#23 Missouri at #21 South Carolina (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
Some noise continues to be made from high positions in Columbia, Missouri, and the Playoff selection committee still seems to see something in the Tigers to the extent that they are deserving of a Top 25 ranking, but the reality is that this program has the most bland resume of any SEC team still technically in the Playoff hunt. Outside of last weekend’s comeback victory over a 5-5 Oklahoma squad, Missouri’s most impressive win this season is an overtime triumph at home over upstart Vanderbilt. Perhaps that is enough, though, as there is another SEC team with a bit more name recognition than Missouri that has a very similar resume and a much higher ranking to go along with it. This much is clear, however – a trip to the other Columbia this weekend is going to tell us a lot about just how much head coach Eli Drinkwitz should be clapping back at the talking heads in the media.
The Gamecocks have really started to put things together in the second half of the season, particularly on the offensive end. LaNorris Sellers has blossomed as a capable passer over the past couple of weeks, lighting up both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt through the air. Missouri has a much better pass defense than those two teams, but Sellers’ arm was really the missing link separating South Carolina from coming through on some potentially massive upsets earlier in the season. As a rusher he is also dangerous, and has paired particularly well with running back Raheim Sanders in the run game. The Tigers have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and will have to deal with that this weekend. Offensively, Missouri hasn’t really impressed against strong competition and the Gamecocks are solid on the defensive side as well. Eli Drinkwitz clearly has no problem talking the talk, but I don’t see the Tigers walking the walk to go along with that this Saturday.
My Pick: 36-28 South Carolina (does not cover -14 spread)
Jack’s Take: South Carolina, 27-24
#13 Boise State at San Jose State (Saturday, 7 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)
There’s a saying – or maybe Around The Corn is just making it up, I don’t know – pertinent to college football that goes, “nothing in November comes easy.” The Broncos were reminded of this last Saturday as things got uncomfortable at times against a scrappy Nevada squad that has yet to win a Mountain West game this season. Things won’t ease up for Boise State this weekend, as the team currently slotted to earn the G5’s auto-bid to the Playoff takes on a San Jose State squad that has been a nice surprise in the conference in Ken Niumatalolo’s first season with the program.
San Jose State was projected by most accounts to be a team scrapping to put together a bowl eligible regular season. That has already been achieved by the Spartans with games to spare, and in fact, a victory in this contest would keep San Jose State in the thick of the conference title game race. It might be surprising for some to hear that a Niumatalolo coached team is running an offense that leads the league in passing yards per game, but that is the current reality. First-year offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann is finding a lot of success with his variation of the Spread-N-Shred, and shredded aptly describes Boise State’s defense at times this year through the air. The Spartans appear to be dealing with a quarterback controversy as of late, and if Walter Eget starts it may be a better opportunity for Boise State to force turnovers, but the Broncos have only grabbed four INTs all season. The assignment for the Broncos is clear – utilize your bell cow runner Jeanty regularly and keep your defense off the field as much as possible. Boise State should win this game, but there is a target on its back now and San Jose State has proven itself to be good enough to keep things interesting with either of the two quarterbacks that have taken meaningful snaps this season.
My Pick: 35-28 Boise State (does not cover -14 spread)
Jack’s Take: Boise State, 35-13
Arizona State at #16 Kansas State (Saturday,7 PM ET – ESPN)
Three months ago, very few people would have had the stones to predict that this game would have such a profound impact on the Big 12 title race. Fast forward to the present, and Arizona State has positioned itself already as one of the most surprising teams in all of college football. The Sun Devils have the chance in this one to not only keep themselves in the conference title race, not long ago seen as a pipedream, but to deliver the knockout blow to a program that was a preseason title favorite.
The Sun Devils have generally flown under the radar this season, but on paper Kenny Dillingham’s squad matches up quite evenly with the Wildcats. Like Kansas State, Arizona State has found success this season with the run game, and running back Cam Skattebo is the best player you’ve probably never heard of. Skattebo is a coach’s dream and a load to take down in open space, as Utah found out earlier this season in what was arguably the junior’s best performance of his career (158 yards rushing, 2 rushing TDs on 22 carries). Skattebo was out for last week’s game against Central Florida with a shoulder injury, but is tough as nails and will be difficult to keep off the field in some capacity for this one. If he’s healthy, Arizona State has a weapon capable of breaking down the Big 12’s top ranked run defense. Even if he is not 100 percent, the Sun Devils are good enough defensively to make this a very difficult game for Kansas State, and I expect points to come at a premium in this one. Coach Dillingham has done an incredible job in his less than two seasons with the program and won’t have any problem energizing his squad ahead of this game. As a result I expect the Sun Devils to give a valiant effort, though winning in Manhattan is a tough ask.
My Pick: 20-17 Kansas State (does not cover -7.5 spread)
Jack’s Take: Kansas State, 24-14
#1 Oregon at Wisconsin (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
The Ducks have been rolling since their close victory over Ohio State over a month ago, and look every bit like the top team in the country right now. Dan Lanning faces a tough test traveling to Madison, however, where night game atmospheres are often not kind to the visiting team. Wisconsin has been all over the board in terms of its performances this season, but has shown flashes of being the type of team that can orchestrate a massive upset. Head coach Luke Fickell is still seeking his signature win with the program, but will need his team to put everything together that we’ve seen in pieces thus far in 2024 in order for it to come on Saturday evening.
Calling Wisconsin an average football team isn’t a jab at the Badgers – it is reality based on statistics. Luke Fickell’s squad sits smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten in terms of offensive yards per game and defensive yards per game allowed. What’s more is that Wisconsin is basically operating on offense as one would expect; racking up yards against the worst defenses on paper, and struggling to score against the best ones. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Oregon sits near the top of the Big Ten in terms of defensive yards allowed per game and like Alabama and Penn State before it, has an offense capable of running away with things. It is hard to say with conviction that Wisconsin does anything special, whereas Oregon is making a strong claim that it has earned its No. 1 ranking in both the eye test and on-paper results. Unless Wisconsin’s defense can consistently get after Dillon Gabriel, which is unlikely given that the Badgers have just 14 sacks in nine games this season, the Heisman hopeful will have too much time to throw for Oregon not to move the ball with relative ease.
My Pick: 38-20 Oregon (covers -13.5 spread)
Jack’s Take: Oregon, 42-10. Ducks go ‘quack!’
#7 Tennessee at #12 Georgia (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
It’s difficult to say with certainty if this matchup is a Playoff elimination game for the Volunteers, which has suffered just one defeat this season but has only climbed to No. 7, but it is definitely one for the Bulldogs. Georgia has consistently struggled finding its footing offensively, with the run game proving unable to reliably soften things up for an aerial attack. Georgia is coming off its third contest this season in which it did not score a single touchdown through the air and was stifled on the ground by Mississippi, gaining only 59 yards rushing in that game. Tennessee can smell blood in the water as one of the better pass defenses in the SEC and with an arsenal of big bodies up front chomping at the bit to make Carson Beck’s life a nightmare.
The most obvious question mark heading into this game is the health of Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is currently in concussion protocol at the time of writing and is questionable to play. The loss of Iamaleava is a concern for Vols fans, no doubt, as his presence alone has given defenses something to think about on the back end. But on the other hand, despite Tennessee’s flashy stat lines in the first few games of the season, the Volunteers haven’t been leaning so heavily on the passing game to be successful. Only once this year has Iamaleava surpassed 300 yards passing in a game, but Tennessee has rushed for at least 150 yards in all but one contest. For the most part, the Georgia defense has been able to clamp down against the run and will need to do so in this game to avoid back-to-back losses in the regular season for the first time since 1997. If they can do so, I expect an angry, embarrassed Georgia offense to come out looking sharp and for Carson Beck to have a bounceback game, something he has been needing for more than just a week. The Bulldogs no longer have any room for error and will take that to heart.
My Pick: 33-21 Georgia (covers -10 spread)
Jack’s Take: Georgia, 35-24
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#3 Texas at Arkansas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Longhorns showed up offensively last weekend against Florida, at least temporarily putting concerns about that side of the ball at ease. Arkansas gives up a lot of points as well, though the Razorbacks should be able to respond better offensively than the Gators.
Jack’s Take: Arkansas
#20 Clemson at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
Now that the Panthers have successfully taken themselves out of the Playoff conversation (and the Top 25) thanks to back-to-back defeats, it feels like it is time for a surprise result. Dabo Swinney and Pat Narduzzi have split results during their tenure at the programs, with each coach winning two in the matchup since 2016.
Jack’s Take: Clemson
Utah at #17 Colorado (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
The Utes came painstakingly close to adding a positive result to what has been an otherwise disastrous season, narrowly losing the Holy War last weekend. Utah can still play spoiler this week to a Colorado team that now controls its own destiny in terms of making the Big 12 title game.
Jack’s Take: Colorado
#25 Tulane at Navy (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN2)
Effectively a conference title game elimination match, the winner of this one will take control of second place in the AAC with just one league contest remaining for each. Tulane has quietly put itself in position to contend for a third consecutive AAC title game appearance, while Navy would seemingly be looking to force a second Army-Navy game in 2024.
Jack’s Take: Tulane
Virginia at #8 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – NBC)
The Cavaliers have scratched and clawed their way to the brink of bowl eligibility, a reward that Virginia hasn’t enjoyed since 2019. The Fighting Irish know the stakes – keep winning, and a Playoff spot is a near certainty.
Jack’s Take: Notre Dame
