Perhaps I should leave the country more often.
For the first time this season, I posted a perfect 5-0 record straight up. Big shout out to Ohio State and South Carolina, teams I had a strong feeling about heading into Week 10 that got the job done.
Outside of the head-to-head prediction game, it was an understatedly wild weekend in college football. Thanks to losses by Iowa State and Kansas State, the Big 12 is wide open and currently led by two teams that few predicted would be in the title hunt at this point. Clemson’s loss and SMU’s dominant victory over Pitt have people throwing their hands up regarding the ACC as well. Georgia’s shaky victory over Florida has allowed for just a bit of doubt to creep back in regarding the Bulldogs.
Quickly back to the prediction game, my strong week has tightened things up once again.
The current records after Week 10:
K. Becks – 33-17 SU, 26-24 ATS
Guests – 32-18 SU, 27-23 ATS
This week, my 91-year-old grandpa will make his first appearance on Around The Corn. We’ll find out this week whether experience is truly the ultimate trump card.
Before we look at Week 11, let’s take a quick look back at what we learned in Week 10.
3 Things We Learned in Week 10
James Franklin is who some Ohio State fans think Ryan Day is
I saw this statement as a tweet so I can’t take credit for the humorous nature of it, but it carries some truth as well. The Penn State head coach is now 3-18 against Top 10 teams, a record that would make most fanbases lose their lunch. Day is 10-8 against Top 10 foes, a number which may come as a surprise to many fans that feel Day crumbles in high pressure situations.
Admittedly, part of the narrative with Day is that he has trouble winning games that Ohio State fans are actually concerned about. Solid record and ranking aside, the Nittany Lions have struggled mightily against the Big Ten’s juggernauts over the past decade and a half and there are plenty of Buckeyes fans that don’t view Penn State the same way as, say, Michigan, Oregon or the handful of powers that Ohio State has faced in postseason competition. However, this past weekend’s result is further proof that many Ohio State fans simply don’t grasp the reality of how good they really have it.
Colorado is more than a side show in the Big 12
If the season opener was the last time you gave the Buffaloes anything more than a fleeting thought, it’s time to circle back on Coach Prime’s team. Colorado’s only loss since the beginning of September was a close one to Kansas State four weeks ago, in which the team proved that it was a legitimate contender for the Big 12 crown.
Currently the Buffaloes are just a game out of the top spot in the conference and face a manageable schedule if they can get by a pesky Texas Tech team this weekend. Other contenders Iowa State and Kansas State still have to play each other, and being a game up on Wildcats, Colorado effectively controls its own destiny if Iowa State were to lose that matchup. A postseason contest may have been the realistic expectation outside of the locker room, but clearly Coach Prime has succeeded in getting his team to think bigger in Year 2.
Miami’s ability to find a “next gear” is unmatched
With less than 14 minutes to go in last week’s game against Duke, the Hurricanes trailed by a point and had been stopped on third and goal. Fewer than nine game minutes later, Miami was up by 22 points.
Mario Cristobal’s team may not be putting every team away with such style, but nobody in the country is better at turning on the jets than the Hurricanes. A combination of offensive potency and defensive aggression was on display in last weekend’s fourth quarter, a snapshot into what Miami is capable of and displaying (albeit inconsistently) all season. During the ridiculous scoring span, the Hurricanes scored on two big passing plays against the ACC’s top defense and turned the ball over once as well. That level of chaos has been what has made Miami such a fun team to ride with this season.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#4 Miami at Georgia Tech (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
For the second consecutive week, the Hurricanes will go up against one of the ACC’s better defensive outfits, this time on the road. We just mentioned how potent the Miami offense can be, an ace up the sleeve for any head coach, but Mario Cristobal will want to see a bit more discipline from the unit, which last week coughed up the ball multiple times for only the second time this season. Luckily for the Hurricanes, Georgia Tech is not nearly as opportunistic defensively as Duke. The Yellow Jackets have forced fewer turnovers this season than every ACC team except Florida State.
Georgia Tech will not be intimidated by a ranking associated with its opponent, but as we found out rather quickly, the “big” win over Florida State to kick off the year wasn’t as impressive as initially thought. Since that time the Yellow Jackets are 4-4 and have yet to win a game where they have failed to rush for at least 100 yards. Miami’s defense averages just over 95 yards allowed per contest, suggesting it will be tough sledding for the Georgia Tech offense. Some hope can be offered by the fact that the Hurricanes have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and Haynes King could be back for the Yellow Jackets after having missed the previous two games. If King plays, and is healthy enough to use his legs, then Georgia Tech has a shot making this one very interesting. If not, the Hurricanes will roll.
My Pick: 35-21 Miami (covers -11 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Miami 34, Georgia Tech 9
#3 Georgia at #16 Mississippi (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
This huge matchup is effectively a Playoff elimination game for the Rebels, which will have a difficult time making the case for an at-large bid with three losses on the year. Last season, this matchup was a Top 10 tilt played around the same time of year – Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart was injured during the second quarter and the Bulldogs ran away with it. Assuming Dart stays healthy, the Rebels should be much more competitive this time around, playing at home and facing a defense that has been easier to break down in 2024.
Despite the Rebels having the most potent offense in the SEC, the key to this game may come down to Lane Kiffin’s defense. Mississippi boasts the conference’s best run defense (82.2 YPG allowed), though somewhat surprisingly has lost the two league games in which it held teams to under 100 rushing yards. That being said, one of Georgia’s most glaring weaknesses on the offensive side is the run game, and the Bulldogs’ only loss this season consequently came in the one game they failed to rush for at least 100 yards. Georgia has also turned the ball over multiple times through the air in four of its last five contests. This should be a fascinating game with two very smart coaches playing chess against one another, and it is worth pointing out that Mississippi’s two losses have come by a combined six points. At the beginning of the season, I circled this game as a potential loss for the Bulldogs. With the season on the line, I like Kiffin to orchestrate his annual upset, making things really interesting in the SEC.
My Pick: 32-29 Mississippi (covers +3 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Georgia 27, Ole Miss 13. SEC Slugfest.
Michigan at #8 Indiana (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
The Wolverines hold a 62-10 all-time advantage over the Hoosiers, and prior to the 2020 COVID season, Indiana hadn’t beaten Michigan since 1987. But it is 2024 – the 12-team Playoff format is here, Jim Harbaugh has left Ann Arbor, Curt Cignetti has arrived in Bloomington and the Hoosiers have earned every right to call themselves a clear favorite heading into this game. At this point in the season and given the performances from Indiana, it is no longer appropriate to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Hoosiers are a legitimately good football team, and it would be a huge surprise to witness Michigan flip the script in this one.
What Cignetti has done with the Indiana offense is nothing short of amazing, as the Hoosiers are averaging nearly 150 yards per game more than they did in 2023. Moreover, two weeks ago Indiana proved it could win without its starting quarterback, a feat that most teams in the country would ultimately have trouble doing. The Michigan defense has spent far too much time on the field this season thanks to the offensive woes and simply cannot hang onto games against opponents that can score a lot of points. The Hoosiers fit that mold and will be a handful for the Wolverines, similar to the way that Oregon was last weekend. Though Michigan might hang around in the first half or even through the third quarter, I do not expect Indiana to be intimidated by the stripes on the opponent’s helmet and choke this one away.
My Pick: 31-20 Indiana (does not cover -14.5 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Indiana 38, Michigan 17. Hoosiers are real, Michigan only against the Buckeyes.
#20 Colorado at Texas Tech (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FOX)
This week the Buffaloes face arguably the most difficult test remaining on their schedule, traveling to Lubbock to take on a Texas Tech team fresh off of a victory over previously unbeaten Iowa State. While not offering much to write home about on the defensive side of the ball, Texas Tech packs a punch offensively and has not been afraid of engaging in a shootout. Once categorized similarly, Colorado has found its footing on defense and will actually be better suited in this game avoiding a track meet.
Texas Tech has the worst pass defense in the Big 12, but has managed to win or be competitive in games this season when the opposing quarterback has experienced accuracy issues. I look to TCU to paint the picture more clearly, because the Horned Frogs are very similar to Colorado statistically. Texas Tech narrowly lost to TCU, but in that game Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover threw two interceptions, something he has done three other times this season. Shedeur Sanders has been incredibly accurate in 2024, eclipsing 80 percent accuracy three times and throwing multiple interceptions only once. Sanders is also second to Hoover in the Big 12 in passing yards per game, has thrown just as many touchdowns and two fewer picks. If Sanders takes care of the football, Colorado should be in good position to navigate this tricky matchup.
My Pick: 34-27 Colorado (covers -4.5 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Colorado 21, Texas Tech 17
#11 Alabama at #15 LSU (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
Another de facto Playoff elimination game between SEC heavyweights takes place in Baton Rouge on Saturday night when two-loss Alabama and LSU square off. Both teams have strong victories to hang their hat on, but consistency has been an issue for each as well. Despite some level of inconsistency, particularly at the quarterback position, points are not expected to come at a premium in this one. For all that is on the line, we should be getting the best of what creative geniuses Kalen DeBoer and Brian Kelly have to offer offensively.
The trajectory of Jalen Milroe has been a bit of a yo-yo this season. Alabama’s quarterback started off great, prompting some to put him amongst Heisman favorites, but has cooled off lately and thrown multiple interceptions in two of his last three games. The Crimson Tide’s drubbing of Missouri last time out reintroduced the country to the rushing attack, something that has been crucially lacking for the majority of DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa. This aspect of the game will be key. In LSU’s closest games and losses (except against Southern Cal), teams have been able to gash the Tigers on the ground. The clock chewing approach also keeps the ball out of Garrett Nussmeier’s hands, who presents a danger to the somewhat shaky Alabama secondary. If Alabama returns to a page from the Saban playbook and tries to win this game in the trenches, I think it will be the visitors that keep their Playoff hopes alive.
My Pick: 31-27 Alabama (covers -3 spread)
Grandpa’s Take: Alabama 19, LSU 12. Another SEC Slugfest.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Florida at #5 Texas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
Confidence in Texas’s offense has cooled following some lackluster performances in recent weeks and lagging injury concerns related to Quinn Ewers. The Gators showed life in their defeat to Georgia last week and won’t be intimidated by the size or talent of the Longhorns.
Grandpa’s Take: Texas 38, Florida 13
#25 Army at North Texas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN2)
The Black Knights are being disrespected once again despite an undefeated record, coming in at No. 25 in the first CFP rankings of the season while having climbed to No. 18 in the AP poll. Though it may not translate from a rankings perspective, a road victory over a decent North Texas squad will add weight to the argument that the Black Knights are for real.
Grandpa’s Take: North Texas 27, Army 21
#23 Clemson at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Clemson’s Playoff hopes took a major hit last weekend with a loss to Louisville, as the Tigers no longer control their own destiny in terms of an ACC title game appearance. Virginia Tech has been inconsistent in 2024, but showed earlier in the year that it can spar with the best that the league has to offer.
Grandpa’s Take: Virginia Tech 27, Clemson 19
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
Both teams have delivered gut punches to top SEC competition this season, though neither have been good enough to break into the CFP rankings – yet. Expect the winner of this one to make an appearance next week, as both arguably have a better resume than a team like, say, Missouri.
Grandpa’s Take: Vanderbilt 20, South Carolina 17. Mighty Commodores.
#9 BYU at Utah (Saturday, 10:15 PM ET – ESPN)
The bottom has dropped out on Utah’s season, thanks in large part to Cam Rising’s health, and the Utes are not fighting for CFP or Big 12 title position as once hoped. However, this is still the Holy War and BYU has a target on its back following an unexpected 8-0 start. A massive upset in this one would bring a bit of positivity to an otherwise disappointing season for Utah.
Grandpa’s Take: BYU 24, Utah 17. Losers ride home on their bicycles.
