Watch out for the hook.
It’s uncommon that Around The Corn’s head-to-head prediction game is settled by a half point, but that was the case this past weekend. The -14 spread we settled on for the Notre Dame vs. Navy game ended up costing me a tie against Kevin thanks to my pick (a prediction which would have been just fine based on what I was seeing at most books on Thursday), and thus further pushed the guests ahead overall.
The current records after Week 9:
K. Becks – 28-17 SU, 23-22 ATS
Guests – 30-15 SU, 26-19 ATS
It was a relatively quiet weekend in terms of upsets, though there were a handful of games that came down to the wire. As we turn the calendar to November this week, the number of nailbiters should only increase.
Joining the blog this week is my buddy Ryan, who will be making his first appearance as guest prognosticator on Around The Corn. The guests are now on a winning streak for the first time this season, though the gap is not insurmountable and the most difficult part of the season in terms of predicting results still remains.
Due to time constraints, the analysis will be a bit shorter this week. Let us know what you think compared with previous previews, as we’re always looking for ways to positively refine the content provided.
Before we look at Week 10, let’s briefly rewind the week that was in college football.

3 Things We Learned in Week 9
It is Boise State’s G5 Playoff auto-bid to lose
Make no mistake, Boise State’s season was far from over after the close loss to Oregon on the road in September. In fact, the competitiveness of the Broncos in that game simply confirmed that if they ran the table the rest of the season, they’d almost surely be in line to receive the automatic Playoff bid awarded to the highest ranked G5 conference champ.
There is still work to be done, and perhaps a rematch against UNLV, but the toughest test was seemingly just passed. Beating the Rebels at home will be an easier task than besting them in Las Vegas.
The stats don’t lie about LSU
There’s a saying that a former President famously fumbled – it correctly goes, “fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Well LSU, shame on me, because you have fooled me twice. I thought your offense was good enough to overcome the deficiencies I have pointed out about your defense already.
Enter Marcel Reed. The redshirt freshman embarrassed the Tigers’ defense, to the extent that Reed probably just earned himself the starting job for Texas A&M over Connor Weigman. You can win big games with an iffy defense, sure, but LSU’s defense is downright bad, and the writing is on the wall. Next time I’ll ignore my gut.
You never forget your first (victory as an FBS member)
A friend of mine asked me earlier this season what needed to be done to ensure that Liberty didn’t finish the regular season unbeaten. Neither of us had previously winless, new-to-FBS Kennesaw State ending Liberty’s non-bowl winning streak of 18 games.
It was a joyous occasion for the Owls and their fans, who had yet to witness a game this season in which their program had ended a contest within a single score of the opposition. Though many around the country overlooked the Thursday evening affair, word quickly spread about one of the biggest upsets of the season. A gift is likely on its way postmarked from Boise, Idaho.

5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
There have been rumblings in and around Columbus since the conclusion of the Nebraska game about Ohio State’s struggles in the run game and performance of the offensive line. Yes, the Buckeyes had issues last weekend, but it was also the first time the offense has been held under 140 yards all season. Penn State is excellent up front defensively and Will Howard will need to lead the charge in order for the Buckeyes to have success offensively.
Drew Allar remains a game time decision for the Nittany Lions, and his absence would be difficult to overcome if Ohio State’s defensive pressure is better than it was against Oregon. Even if Allar plays, though, it feels like a “new year, same result” situation for Penn State. Neither James Franklin nor Ryan Day has an excellent track record against top competition, but someone must win. Day will quiet some doubters on Saturday.
My Pick: 31-23 Ohio State (covers -3.5 spread)
Ryan’s Take: Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2016, although they’ve consistently given the Buckeyes one of their toughest games of the year. The two keys here will be the health of Drew Allar and if Penn State can attack the left side of OSU’s line. Look for Abdul Carter to have a huge day and James Franklin to get over the hump. Penn State 31 Ohio State 28
Duke at #5 Miami (Saturday, 12 PM ET – 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Blue Devils have been one of the bigger surprises amongst Power conference programs this season, as they were picked by most to finish near or at the bottom of the ACC. Instead, Duke has maintained a strong defensive presence despite the departure of Mike Elko. The Blue Devils have forced more turnovers this season (19) than all but one other team nationally.
Though the Blue Devils could bait Cam Ward into making some mistakes, the Miami quarterback has displayed supreme confidence in his ability to succeed under pressure and continues to produce positive results with an occasional misstep. Good offense will beat good defense here, as Duke hasn’t faced an offense as potent as the Hurricanes.
My Pick: 34-17 Miami (does not cover -20 spread)
Ryan’s Take: They’re calling this the Manny Diaz revenge game. Miami has won some close games this year and I believe that luck will finally run out. Duke’s defense will turnover Cam Ward a few times. This will end his Heisman campaign and Miami’s undefeated season. Duke 24 Miami 21
#13 Indiana at Michigan State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – Peacock)
Curt Cignetti’s team continued rolling last weekend, even with starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke sidelined with an injury. That performance against a decent Washington squad has converted me into a believer in the Hoosiers’ offensive capabilities.
The Spartans have surprised at times this season (see: Iowa game), but the offense is too inconsistent with Aidan Chiles to weather the constant punches that Indiana will bring offensively. Michigan State’s best opportunities to pull an upset come if the Hoosiers suffer from a post-GameDay hangover or are looking ahead to bigger games later in the season.
My Pick: 34-24 Indiana (covers -7.5 spread)
Ryan’s Take: This is the biggest November of IU football history. Even with a TBD quarterback situation, undefeated IU keeps things rolling against MSU. IU 35 MSU 14
#10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
The Aggies have entered the radar of casual fans following their convincing victory over LSU last weekend, but anyone who knows Mike Elko’s track record as a head coach isn’t as surprised by Texas A&M’s ascent. Elko’s teams are marked by a strong defense and generally creative offensive attacks, and that is a great way to describe Texas A&M. The Aggies have not missed a beat when utilizing Marcel Reed at quarterback, to the point where Steve Sarkisian isn’t the only ball coach in Texas with a “good” problem to have at the position.
South Carolina has come so close to pulling off a big upset this season, taking both LSU and Alabama to the brink of defeat. The Gamecocks make up for a lack of offensive firepower with tough defense and have the talent to contain Reed or Connor Weigman. Given that the Aggies are coming off of the emotional high of a big win at home and must travel to Columbia for a night contest, I do see South Carolina having another great shot at causing chaos near the top of the rankings.
My Pick: 28-27 South Carolina (covers +2.5 spread)
Ryan’s Take: Texas A&M is flying high after a big win against LSU. SC is looking for the upset special. This A&M team is different than years past under Mike Elko. Look for the Aggies to remain unbeaten in SEC play as the matchup with Texas inches closer. A&M 21 SC 17
#18 Pittsburgh at #20 SMU (Saturday, 8 PM ET – ACC Network)
My heart says take the Panthers in this one, but my head is still leaning towards my preseason prediction that SMU would fight for an ACC title in 2024. Pittsburgh reminded everyone in the country why Kyle McCord transferred out of Columbus to Syracuse in the first place, though the five turnovers forced last weekend make up nearly half of the team’s season tally. There is an opportunity against SMU, the leader in the ACC in turnovers lost, but the Mustangs are as aggressive defensively as they are loose offensively.
In the end, these are two good football teams that have earned their Top 25 ranking. But with SMU’s offense being a bit more potent, I think the Mustangs will see this one through even if Pittsburgh is able to force some turnovers. If I’m wrong, then I already know who I can call to make guest picks for an upcoming weekend.
My Pick: 31-28 SMU (does not cover -7.5 spread)
Ryan’s Take: Undefeated Pitt faces a huge road test this week. QB Eli Holstein has the Pittsburgh media fired up as well. However, SMU is at home and can’t afford a loss. Mustangs eke out a close one. SMU 28 Pitt 24

5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#19 Mississippi at Arkansas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
The top two offenses in the SEC face off in Fayetteville on Saturday, yet the O/U on the game was at 53.5 as of Monday afternoon. That seems like a good opportunity to hammer the over, if I’ve ever seen one.
Florida at #2 Georgia (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
The origin of the now unofficial nickname for this rivalry, The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, stems from a meeting in 1958 between the two programs that was less than thrilling on the field. Though some would not be surprised if that happens again this season, the Gators have held their own since being blown out by Miami to start the season and should be able to do the same in this one.
#1 Oregon at Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
The Wolverines held off Sparty at home but still don’t have a solution to their quarterback woes. That will likely be a problem against the No. 1 Ducks, but Oregon has yet to visit the Big House as a member of the Big Ten Conference and will be getting everyone’s best shot as long as that number is attached to its name.
Texas Tech at #11 Iowa State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
There aren’t a ton of opportunities remaining for Iowa State to suffer its first loss of the season, and this weekend the Big 12’s top offense visits Ames. It will be a battle of strength against strength, as the Cyclones boast what is for all intents and purposes the best defense in the conference right now (sorry, Utah).
Kentucky at #7 Tennessee (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET – SEC Network)
The Wildcats have been inconsistent this season but have had their best performances against what is seemingly the toughest competition on their schedule. To keep the trend going, Kentucky will need to find a way to slow down Tennessee’s potent rushing attack, as run defense has been an area of concern for the Wildcats the previous few weeks.