Say what you want about the revolving door that is the American Athletic Conference, but it’s still with us, unlike some other wannabe Power conferences (I really don’t mean that, ghost of the Pac-12).
Truthfully, what has been impressive about the AAC is that despite heavy turnover, the quality of the league does appear to be maintaining at the very least a level of consistency. Despite the loss of some of its best programs (Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF) in recent years, the schools left have made a conscious effort to bring guys in that want to grow with their team, not simply use it as a launching pad for the next job.
Take UT-San Antonio head coach Jeff Traylor. Despite winning two straight Conference USA titles and creating a fortress out of the Alamodome (23-4 as a head coach there), Traylor has certainly bucked offers to head to greener pastures in favor of cultivating a winner where he’s at, which is now the AAC.
This conference may be on the outside looking in to the Power Party, but its teams will collectively be taken seriously every year as we usher in the age of the expanded Playoff.
Teams I Like
UT-San Antonio
The Roadrunners test themselves early with trips to in-state (but out-of-conference) foes Texas State and Texas, but even if those don’t end with marks in the win column, it’ll prepare Jeff Traylor’s team well for the AAC schedule ahead. It will also quickly reveal whether Traylor has his replacement for four-year starting quarterback Frank Harris in Owen McCown (son of Josh). UT-San Antonio has a manageable slate in-league, facing arguable favorite Memphis at home and missing the likes of South Florida, Tulane and UAB entirely.
There are some question marks offensively for this team which could put them in difficult spots at times, but I have come to highly respect what Coach Traylor has built in San Antonio and he appears committed to cultivating it further. The defense will almost undoubtedly be the best in the league and that has served the Roadrunners well in the past.
South Florida
There has been quiet optimism since he arrived on campus that second year head coach Alex Golesh has the ability to turn this program around, and 2023 was a great start to build on and even exceed this season. The Bulls return a ton of guys to starting roles, including all but one lineman position on the offense. That side of the ball is Golesh’s specialty and South Florida will rival the known entities in the AAC for most potent offense in 2024.
Like many AAC programs, the Bulls will be challenged early by tough Power conference competition, but South Florida barely has time to recoup before facing their stiffest conference foes (at Tulane and against Memphis off of a bye for their first two AAC contests). I like them to pull at least one upset between those two games and that should put them in good position to be in the title hunt come November.
Not High On
Tulane
The Green Wave recently experienced the most successful two year run in program history, winning a NY6 bowl game and notching double-digit victories in consecutive seasons for the first time ever. Much of that success can be attributed to the job of Willie Fritz, who has moved on to Houston, and quarterback Michael Pratt, who has moved on to the NFL. Tulane had a target on its back heading into the 2023 season and although plenty of teams got close, Fritz, Pratt & Co. still managed to get back to the AAC title game.
Unfortunately, I see no such luck in the Green Wave’s immediate future. New head coach Jon Sumrall is a defensive guy and so I expect that side of the ball not to miss a beat, but the offense could struggle initially without Pratt and the early part of the schedule is not kind. Frankly, the schedule in general won’t be easy. There is still talent here and Sumrall did a good job at Troy previously, so I don’t expect a cliff dive but do expect two new participants in the conference title game.
Players To Watch
Seth Henigan, Memphis quarterback
It’s not often in today’s college football landscape that a guy capable of starting for four years sticks around the same place, but that’s exactly what Henigan has done, becoming the school’s all-time passing yards leader last season. For Henigan, the individual accolades have been nice, but Memphis has also steadily improved each season that he has been on campus and last year finished with double-digit wins for only the fourth time in school history.
If Henigan can will the Tigers to a better record for a fourth consecutive season, it’ll almost surely mean a trip to the AAC title game and perhaps even a shot at the Playoff, which extends a bid to the highest ranked G5 champion. I have at least one buddy who thinks this is a great possibility.
Jacob Zeno, UAB quarterback
The Blazers boasted one of the worst defenses in all of college football last season but was a polar opposite on the offensive side of the ball, thanks in large part to Zeno. The former Baylor recruit has been head coach Trent Dilfer’s star pupil, managing an impressive completion percentage in 2023 (73.6 percent) that was better than every quarterback not named Bo Nix.
Even minor improvement on the defensive side of the ball should put less pressure on Zeno to push the ball downfield, so don’t expect the accuracy number to dip much this season. In a league filled with talented quarterbacks, UAB has the most efficient of the bunch.
Byrum Brown, South Florida quarterback
South Florida’s comeuppance in 2023 was thanks in no small part to Brown, who seized the starting role at the beginning of the season and never made the coaching staff think twice about that call. Brown is one of the most dynamic players in the entire country, let alone the AAC, and led the Bulls in both passing and rushing yards last season. While it isn’t impossible that Brown could improve upon the rushing figure (809 yards) in 2024, the running back stable is strong and in the interest of keeping Brown healthy may not materialize that way.
The Bulls taking the next step would mean a legitimate push towards the AAC title game, which in turn would require Brown to become one of the faces of the league. He has the ability and I like Coach Golesh’s offensive philosophy and history of positive results.
Games to Watch (Non-Conference)
UT-San Antonio at Texas State (September 7)
Believe it or not, this game currently stands as one of the best G5 non-conference matchups of the 2024 regular season. The Roadrunners are the known commodity but Texas State will likely surprise a lot of people this year.
Kansas State at Tulane (September 7)
For the second straight season Tulane welcomes a Power conference team with Playoff ambitions to Yulman Stadium. We’ll learn a lot about both teams from this game.
Memphis at Florida State (September 14)
Given Florida State’s Week 0 flop, it’s hard to argue that the Tigers will be able to take the Seminoles by surprise here. But really, that wasn’t going to happen anyway – ‘Noles head coach Mike Norvell came from Mmephis.
Games to Watch (Conference)
South Florida at Tulane (September 28)
The AAC is coming out of the gate swinging! This is the conference opener for both teams and will set an early barometer for what we can expect from the top half of the league this season.
Memphis at UT-San Antonio (November 2)
Possibly a preview of the AAC title game, the preseason expectation is that this showdown will be between the conference’s most potent offense and most stifling defense.
Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
South Florida over 7 wins (+105)
This bet might end up looking really poor after the Bulls’ first five or six games of the season, but keep the faith! The forecast looks significantly brighter on the back end, and there could even be an upset or two brewing in those first six (at least one will likely need to happen for South Florida to be a true AAC title contender).
UT-San Antonio to make Playoff (+1200)
This one is inspired by the fact that a buddy of mine took Memphis to make the Playoff. If the Roadrunners can get consistent quarterback play out of someone, they are the most complete team in the conference.
Army to win Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy (+160)
The Black Knights ditched the shotgun offense midway through last season and ended the year on a four-game winning streak. All is right again in Service Academyland and Army can pair a return to conference affiliation with bragging rights over the other military branches.
Predictions
- UT-San Antonio (9-3, [7-1])
- Memphis (9-3, [6-2])
- Tulane (8-4, [6-2])
- South Florida (8-4, [6-2])
- East Carolina (6-6, [5-3])
- Army (7-5, [5-3])
- UAB (8-4, [5-3])
- Florida Atlantic (6-6, [4-4])
- North Texas (5-7, [4-4])
- Rice (5-7, [3-5])
- Tulsa (4-8, [3-5])
- Navy (3-9, [2-6])
- Charlotte (1-11, [0-8])
- Temple (0-12, [0-8])
Conference Title Game
Memphis at UT-San Antonio
Champion: UT-San Antonio
