Monday marked the final day of Championship Week that the small and mid-major tournaments don’t have to contend for eyeballs with the power conferences.
On one hand, this is a positive because it is an indication of just how close we are to the big bracket being released this coming Sunday. On the other, it’s time to pour one out for the teams and leagues that won’t get the deserved attention as the week continues on.
Bridging that gap is something that we’re committed to applying at Around The Corn Sports Blog.
Here we take a look at two more automatic bids punched to the Big Dance, from the Fun Belt and SoCon.
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Sun Belt
Automatic Bid: Troy
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
The Sun Belt Conference tournament received a lot of attention in the days leading up to and during the event, and nearly became a meme had the top-seeded Trojans not captured the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Alas, Troy may have ended a Cinderella story already but has solid potential to become one itself next week. Scott Cross’s team has continuity (top four scorers have all been with the program for multiple years) and while not incredibly big, make the most of the size they do have. Juniors Victor Valdez (6’7”) and Thomas Dowd (6’8”) are both forwards that possess a high level of comfort handling the ball, which gives this team a lot of versatility and ability to open up space on the floor.
This group is gritty, ranking inside the top 40 in the country in rebounds per game despite the relative lack of size. The continuity aspect mentioned earlier shows itself in the way that the offense flows. If you’re a fan of complex metrics, it’s worth mentioning the following: of teams that have already punched their bid to the Big Dance at the time of writing, Troy tops the nation in Evan Miya’s “Opponent Adjust” ranking. This is essentially a measure of how well a team plays relative to expectation, based on whether it is playing an opponent better than average based on their schedule or one below average. In layman’s terms, it seems to check out – this season the Trojans have beaten San Diego State and Akron, and lost by one to Southern Cal despite losing 10 other times.
The Trojans were on shaky ground from late January to late February but appear to be peaking at the right time, with a second chance in as many years to wear the glass slipper.
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Southern
Automatic Bid: Furman
Projected Seed: 13 or 14
Cinderella Probability: Decent
Looking at the overall record and regular season finishing position in the Southern Conference is not a great way to evaluate the Paladins. Furman dealt with a number of injuries throughout the regular season, to the extent that they needed to burn freshman guard Cole Bowser’s redshirt just to keep things afloat in January. Bob Ritchey’s squad is young in general, with important roles being filled by other underclassmen outside of Bowser. Of particular note is fellow freshman Alex Wilkins, who leads the team in minutes per game, points per game and assists per game.
The team understandably needed time to heal and gel as a group thanks to the relative lack of experience, but things seem to be coming together at exactly the right time. Furman will be difficult to dispatch in the Big Dance, if only because their patience offensively and general pace (No. 266 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) has been frustratingly productive. The Paladins aren’t afraid to let the shot clock work to their advantage and that may give them an opportunity to keep things close against the higher seeds.
This is one of the few instances I can remember where my seed projection is significantly different than the professional bracketologists, and that has a lot to do with my probability rating that the Paladins can be a Cinderella. That said, if they do end up as a No. 16 seed as the pros are prognosticating, there’s no doubt in my mind that Furman would be the toughest of them.
