Let’s preview the South Region.
Best First Round Matchups
#8 Louisville vs. #9 Creighton (Thursday, 12:15 PM ET – truTV)
From a metrics perspective, the Cardinals are one of the most underseeded teams in the entire Tournament, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that means that Creighton will just roll over in this one. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a handful as far out as behind the three point line, and Steven Ashworth will ensure that the Bluejays are still effective offensively against Louisville’s stingy defense.
#4 Texas A&M vs. #13 Yale (Thursday, approx. 7:25 PM ET – TBS)
The Bulldogs made it known last season that they are not to be taken lightly, and the reason that statement still makes sense is that this season’s Yale squad retains a large portion of the productivity that helped it upset Auburn in 2024. That starts with team leader John Poulakidas, but the top four scorers on this year’s team are returning pieces.
Things have already started off poorly for the Aggies, having gotten to Denver late thanks to a gas leak near campus that prevented their flight.
#5 Michigan vs. #12 UC-San Diego (Thursday, approx. 10 PM ET – TBS)
A trendy upset pick for good reason, the Tritons are making their first appearance in the Big Dance after having joined the Division I ranks just five years ago. Michigan had an excellent run in the Big Ten Tournament to capture that title but were not handsomely rewarded for the efforts. The Wolverines, which turn the ball over more than 14 times per game, received an invitation to face the country’s fourth best team in terms of steals.
#7 Marquette vs. #10 New Mexico (Friday, approx. 7:25 PM ET – TBS)
A contrast of styles will ensue in this one which always makes for an interesting watch. But additionally, when considering the names on each side this is arguably the most underrated matchup of the First Round based on talent alone. Between Marquette’s Kam Jones and David Joplin, and New Mexico’s Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph, there is as much future NBA talent in one place as you’re going to find in Thursday and Friday’s games.
Team That Could Make a Run
UC-San Diego
The Tritons are a very rare example of when the general public’s feeling about a possible Cinderella actually marries up nicely with the team’s metrics on paper. UC-San Diego isn’t just a good team based on its record – its strength is backed by metrics, beginning with its adjusted efficiency rating, which is better than teams such as Arkansas, Memphis and Oklahoma.
Eric Olen’s team plays good defense, boasting the nation’s leader in steals per game (Hayden Gray), which bodes well against teams like Michigan and possible opponent Texas A&M that both struggle with turning the ball over. The Tritons don’t turn the ball over themselves, either. This is all to say that, while UC-San Diego isn’t likely to beat itself, this squad is well equipped to take advantage of the mistakes of their opponent. A trip to the second weekend of the Tournament is well within reach for this Tournament debutant.
Buyer Beware
Iowa State
The Cyclones have had a great season, and at full strength could be considered one of the true national title contenders. The problem is that Iowa State won’t be at full strength in this year’s Tournament. Guard play has been important to the success of T.J. Otzelberger’s team, and the Cyclones are dealing with injuries to two very good ones heading into the Big Dance. Second leading scorer and leading assist man Keshon Gilbert will be out for the entirety of the Tournament, and Tamin Lipsey will be coming back fresh off of his own injury for the opener against Lipscomb.
Not only do these losses upset the balance of the rotation, but it significantly affects the ability for teams to key in on Iowa State’s other talents, namely forwards Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic. It would not be shocking to see the Cyclones out of sorts in their Tournament opener, which would likely foreshadow any future results.
Remember The Name
Wade Taylor IV, Texas A&M
Assuming that the Aggies’ First Round contest will be a nailbiter, expect that Wade Taylor IV will have the ball in his hands a lot in the waning moments. Taylor is the soul of this team, a guy who has the iso ball skills capable of putting the team on his back in a crucial moment, and the Kobe-esque confidence in himself to continue putting up the shots he know he can make, even if things aren’t working perfectly that day.
Texas A&M might not be a more efficient offensive team with Taylor on the court, but it is a more confident one in terms of getting its shot, something that is very important at this time of year.
John Poulakidas, Yale
Poulakidas is a walking bucket, averaging 19.2 PPG for the Bulldogs this season. He also does all the extra things as well, placing him within the small group of players in this Tournament who can be incredibly impactful both on and off the ball. He is deadly from behind the arc and proved that on the biggest stage last season as well, hitting six of nine from three point land in Yale’s upset over Auburn.
The 6’6” guard is the undisputed leader of the Bulldogs and has been in the spotlight before, providing confidence that he can deliver a special moment if needed yet again.
Sean Pedulla, Ole Miss
Unassuming physically, the 6’1” Pedulla plays a lot bigger than his stature would suggest. The Rebels’ point guard leads the team in minutes, points, assists and steals per game, and for good measure scraps for rebounds for a team that shares the load pretty evenly in that department. For Ole Miss to win basketball games, Pedulla needs to operate at a high level.
Last week, Pedulla kept the Rebels alive in the SEC Tournament with a game-winning three pointer against Arkansas with less than two seconds remaining on the clock. His postgame response, following a pedestrian performance in which the game winner was his only made three out of seven attempts? “Shooters keep shooting.” Perhaps some foreshadowing there.
Donovan Dent, New Mexico
The Mountain West Conference’s Player of the Year has been instrumental in New Mexico’s overall success this season. A natural scorer with the intelligence to succeed as a distributor as well, Dent’s 20.6 PPG ranks eighth in the country while his 6.4 APG are tied for twelfth nationally.
The Lobos drew a difficult but intriguing matchup with Marquette in the first round, where Dent will face a talented Golden Eagles roster that is pushed to create havoc on defense under the guidance of Shaka Smart. If he is successful in this challenge, NBA scouts will certainly take notice, and so will you.
Around The Corn’s Picks
First Round
#1 Auburn over #16 Alabama State
#8 Louisville over #9 Creighton
#12 UC-San Diego over #5 Michigan (upset alert)
#4 Texas A&M over #13 Yale
#11 North Carolina over #6 Ole Miss (upset alert)
#3 Iowa State over #14 Lipscomb
#7 Marquette over #10 New Mexico
#2 Michigan State over #15 Bryant
Second Round
#1 Auburn over #8 Louisville
#12 UC-San Diego over #4 Texas A&M (upset alert)
#11 North Carolina over #3 Iowa State (upset alert)
#2 Michigan State over #7 Marquette
Sweet 16
#1 Auburn over #12 UC-San Diego
#2 Michigan State over #11 North Carolina
Elite 8
#2 Michigan State over #1 Auburn
