It was a busy Tuesday evening, with four more automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament secured. That’s the most bid punching since last weekend and the most that we’ll see in a single day until this coming weekend.
There’s little chance for a breather, however. By Wednesday all but two leagues (MAC and Ivy League) will have kicked off their conference tournaments. It’s one of the most frenetic periods on the sports calendar, with the next several days featuring games from 11 AM ET until after midnight on the East Coast.
This is to say, March Madness has officially arrived. Let’s take a look at five more programs that have extended their part in the madness for at least another week.
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Northeast
Automatic Bid: Long Island
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
New nickname, who dis? The program formerly known as the Blackbirds (and Pioneers, by way of a merger of two separate programs) will be making a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018, this time as the Sharks. Long Island achieved a rare feat for a Northeast Conference team by assuring its bid to the Big Dance before it won the league’s tournament, as opponent Mercyhurst was not yet eligible to advance onward.
Considering the combined program results, Long Island has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game in its seven previous appearances and hasn’t received higher than a 15 seed since 1997. Chances seem high that the team will receive a similar seeding this season, which renders its chances to be a Cinderella relatively low. The Sharks are one of the country’s least likely teams to jack up threes (averaging just 16.5 per contest) and outside of seldom used 7’1” forward Isaiah Miranda, are a guard-centric squad that doesn’t possess a lot of height. They’ll likely have trouble matching up against a higher seed.
If playing in Dayton first, Long Island might be able to notch its first Tournament victory. But the glass slipper will need to be reserved for another team.
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Horizon
Automatic Bid: Wright State
Projected Seed: 14 or 15
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
This self-proclaimed Former King of Fairborn is a proud former resident seeing the Raiders qualify for their third NCAA Tournament since 2018. Wright State was the best team in the Horizon during the regular season, but needed an inspired several minutes of play in the second half of the conference title game to dispatch Detroit Mercy after going ice cold from the field and beyond the arc throughout the back end of the first half and early part of the second.
Wright State isn’t a particularly experienced team, with only one senior getting significant minutes and the majority of offensive production being provided by freshmen and sophomores. One sophomore of note is guard TJ Burch, who was the Horizon’s Newcomer of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Matching Burch’s energy on the floor is forward Kellen Pickett, the league’s Freshman of the Year. They’re both key to an improved Wright State defense this season.
The fight that the Raiders showed in the Big Dance berth clincher is something that has been characteristic of this team all season, so they won’t be an easy out. However, it feels like Wright State lacks a bit of the juice necessary to take down one of the giants in this year’s Tournament.
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Coastal Athletic
Automatic Bid: Hofstra
Projected Seed: 13 or 14
Cinderella Probability: Decent
Hofstra legend Speedy Claxton, one of six former Pride players to play in the NBA, has added to his impressive resume supporting the program by coaching it to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001. Fittingly, this squad is led by a player that comes from the same mold as Claxton. Guard Cruz Davis is one of the top 30 players in the country in scoring (20.4 PPG) and like his coach has a knack for creating his own shot. He’s also dangerous from behind the arc, as is the team in general (36.8 3P% collectively).
The Pride went through a rough stretch during the middle of the regular season, losing five straight games from mid to late-January. But since that time Hofstra has gone 11-1 including the CAA Tournament, and only three of those games have been decided by single digits (including the loss). According to Evan Miya’s Opponent Adjust metric, the Pride are one of the best mid-majors already in the Big Dance when it comes to performances against “better” competition.
With a go-to guard, good outside shooting, a coach that supports his players’ natural playing style and supportive deep metrics, the Pride are a squad that cannot be ignored when it comes to Cinderella potential.
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West Coast
Automatic Bid: Gonzaga
Projected Seed: 3 or 4
Cinderella Probability: N/A
At-Large Bid Potential: Saint Mary’s (CA), Santa Clara
The Zags won the WCC Tournament for the 23rd (and final) time, suffering defeat in the event just six times total. The dominance deserves to be mentioned, and it’s a blow to the conference as a whole that the Bulldogs will leave for the Pac-12 next season. But we’ve been through this before – Gonzaga isn’t a Cinderella candidate and hasn’t been for a long time.
We’ll use this section to instead focus on the team Gonzaga beat to capture the conference tournament crown: Santa Clara. The Broncos are right on the Bubble, but if they do get in as a third representative from the WCC (only happened once in the last 13 seasons) are very much a candidate to do Cinderella-esque damage in the Big Dance. Herb Sendek’s group possesses significant length, athleticism and a free-flowing offensive style that has allowed the Broncos to become a top 20 team nationally in terms of efficiency on that side of the floor.
The metrics support Santa Clara not only as a Tournament worthy team, but one that shouldn’t truly be considered a Cinderella. However, the last time it made a Big Dance was with Steve Nash (1996) and the WCC is by definition a mid-major league, so we’ll make an exception here.
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Metro Atlantic Athletic
Automatic Bid: Siena
Projected Seed: 14 or 15
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
Millennial hoops fans, want to feel old? The Saints are making their first NCAA Tournament since 2010, led by head coach Gerry McNamara. Yep, that Gerry McNamara. And though their coach was regularly filling up the stat sheet (often from behind the arc) while at Syracuse, the Saints have found success this season in a very different way. Siena tends to favor shots inside the arc rather than from behind it, and not surprisingly have relied on its defensive prowess to win games this season, allowing opponents to score just 65.7 PPG.
The Saints lean heavily on their starting five and operate with a tight rotation as a whole, having only eight players that have played in at least 10 games this season. Their slow pace of play supports that style, but it will also make it difficult to compete if they don’t limit the opposition’s possessions and keep the score close. It’s a bit harsh to say, but nothing about this team stands out and Siena will have to play one of their best games of the season in order to move on beyond the first round.
And with that previous line, the K. Becks “Kiss of Death” may have been activated.
