By Wednesday, all of the Power conferences tournaments were underway and focus was beginning to shift away from the little guy to the matchups that would have an impact on the Bubble picture.
With that said, a few automatic bids were punched to the Big Dance from smaller conferences still finishing up their postseason tournament.
These teams should not be overlooked by the Power conference squads that may very well be pitted against them in the upcoming days. In particular, one of the teams seems primed to cause problems.
Let’s take a look at the automatic qualifiers from the Big Sky, Patriot League and Southland Conference.
Southland
Automatic Bid: McNeese State
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
The Cowboys decided to run it back this season and made good on it, breezing through the Southland Conference regular season to finish an astounding five games ahead of second place Lamar. Will Wade’s team reintroduced itself to the country early, as well, going on the road to Alabama and keeping things competitive, and nearly knocking off a ranked Mississippi State squad at home later in the year.
Four of the top five scorers on this year’s squad were part of the team that made the NCAA Tournament last year, including leading scorer Javohn Garcia, so there is no shortage of experience here, a unique aspect to the small/mid-major participant group. The Cowboys are solid on both ends of the court, and the aforementioned schedule actually has them in the top 25 nationally according to KenPom’s non-conference strength of schedule rating.
This is all to say that, despite a disappointing end to last year’s efforts (a blowout loss to Gonzaga in the Big Dance), McNeese State is squarely in the mix once again to try on the glass slipper. Perhaps this time they’ll find it fitting much better.
Patriot
Automatic Bid: American
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Eagles have made the NCAA Tournament three previous times, most recently in 2014, but have never managed to keep a final score within single-digits. Perhaps the fourth time is a charm?
Unfortunately, probably not. American is not particularly potent offensively, not overly stout defensively, and operates at one of the slowest paces in the country. Additionally, the Eagles are one of the luckiest teams in the country according to KenPom, which effectively means that American’s winning percentage is higher than expected based on its game-by-game efficiencies.
How about a positive, though? Regardless of what happens to the Eagles, fans should keep an eye on 6’9” senior Matt Rogers, whom the American offense runs through and averages 17 PPG. If Rogers goes on a tear and some things bounce the Eagles’ way, anything can happen. We already know luck is on the side of this squad.
Big Sky
Automatic Bid: Montana
Projected Seed: 14 or 15
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
Thus far, the Grizzlies are one of the most difficult teams to size up heading into this year’s NCAA Tournament. Let’s start with the good, which are the metrics. Montana shoots the ball extremely well from inside the arc, with a 50.2 percent clip that is good for second best in the country. A testament to this is that guard Joe Pridgen, who contributes a respectable 11.5 PPG, boasts a 63.6 percent rate from the field. Guards just don’t do that. The Grizzlies aren’t bad from behind the arc, either.
Now, the not so good part. Despite both a regular season and conference tournament title in the bag, the Grizzlies aren’t being projected by many bracketologists to receive much better than a 15 seed (I give them a shot at slightly higher because I think they deserve it). We don’t need to go through the specifics to understand that a 15 beating a 2 just doesn’t happen all that often (though it happening more in recent years). The reputation of the Big Sky isn’t doing Montana any favors, but then again, neither is the Grizzlies’ out-of-conference results.
If anything, keep an eye on offensive star Money Williams. Not only is he already a candidate for the All-Name team, but his creativity with the ball is likely to cause fits for Montana’s opponent. Montana should be an interesting watch, but it is a stretch to say they’re primed to wreak havoc.
