Tuesday was a busy day for conference tournaments, and not only because some of the Power conferences tipped off.
Four small/mid-major leagues also concluded their postseason tournaments, which meant that several more bids to the Big Dance were punched throughout the evening.
Ensuring that they are not forgotten amongst the madness, we’ll take a closer look at the champions from the Coastal Athletic, Northeast, West Coast conferences and Horizon League.
Northeast
Automatic Bid: St. Francis (PA)
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
So as not to take away from the terrific work done by Dan Gartland, I’ll direct you to a story that breaks down just how improbable St. Francis’s run to the NCAA Tournament has actually been.
If you want the blunt version, the Red Flash got hot when it mattered, but weren’t very good beforehand. Here are the facts: since the Tournament expanded in 1985 to 64 teams, a total of 19 others besides St. Francis have come into it with a losing record. All of them received a 16 seed, and none of them made it past the First Round. The average margin of loss by applicable teams was 25 points.
The Red Flash are almost certainly headed to Dayton, and getting any further will already be a steep hill to climb. It’s almost an assurance that Rob Krimmel’s team won’t last into next weekend.
Horizon
Automatic Bid: Robert Morris
Projected Seed: 14 or 15
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Colonials have won an impressive 16 of their last 17 contests, a streak that would give even the most conservative of squads a lot of confidence heading into the Big Dance. That streak propelled Robert Morris to the Horizon League regular season crown, a testament to the fact that this team is not a March flash in the pan. The issue, however, is the competition.
Andrew Toole’s squad has a strength of schedule rating outside the Top 300 according to KenPom, which is an unfortunate biproduct of playing in the Horizon League. You can only deal with what is in front of you, but what will ultimately be in front of the Colonials next week will be better than most of what they’ve seen this season. Luckily, their do-it-all talent Kam Woods has been around the block a few times, including a one-year stint with North Carolina State last season where he saw limited minutes against Power conference competition.
As a friend put it, Pittsburgh is a Robert Morris town now, and the flag will be flown proudly in hopes that the Colonials will shock the world. It would madness in every sense of the word if the glass slipper fit these boys.
Coastal Athletic
Automatic Bid: UNC Wilmington
Projected Seed: 13 or 14
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The conference formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association has had a storied past when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Think Georgia Mason circa 2006, VCU circa 2007 and Old Dominion circa 2010. Despite conference realignment over the years that has seen all of the aforementioned teams depart for greener pastures, the Coastal Athletic is still a strong mid-major outfit that can produce winners in March.
Enter the Seahawks, which amassed an impressive 27 regular season victories but somehow still managed to finish multiple games behind regular season CAA champ Towson. UNC Wilmington can get after it offensively, especially on the boards, an area where it ranks No. 37 nationally thanks to an all hands on deck approach. Takayo Siddle’s squad runs deep, with 11 players averaging double-digit minutes this season.
Gameplanning for the Seahawks will be tough given the rotation they like to employ, but at the same time, I have doubts about who UNC Wilmington will turn to in a clutch moment. Given their likely seeding, this solid team may simply come up against an opponent that is a little bit better at most of the things the Seahawks do well.
West Coast
Automatic Bid: Gonzaga
Projected Seed: 7 or 8
Cinderella Probability: N/A
At-Large Bid Potential: St. Mary’s (CA)
Another year, another opportunity to mention that regardless of what Gonzaga does in the NCAA Tournament, they won’t be considered for the glass slipper. You’re forgiven if you slept on the Bulldogs this season – they didn’t win the WCC regular season title for the second straight year (first time that has happened during Mark Few’s tenure), and the team’s 25 victories heading into the Big Dance is its lowest since the 2010-2011 campaign. But it’s time to wake up to what the Zags are capable of achieving.
Gonzaga is one of the most potent offenses in the country, averaging 86.6 PPG (No. 3 nationally) without sacrificing field goal percentage (50 percent, also third best nationally). The Bulldogs are incredibly unselfish, with Ryan Nembhard leading the way (and the country) with 9.8 assists per game. But what might be the greatest asset for Few this season is experience. A total of 11 players are upperclassmen, and the top five in terms of average minutes per game played are seniors.
Few has found his own unique way to navigate the choppy waters that represent college basketball in the NIL age. Nobody should be surprised if the Bulldogs are one of the last ones standing this season.
