A ton of action occurred in college hoops on Saturday, including a host of bids being punched from small and mid-major leagues.
As we prepare for the bracket to be released later today, this breakdown will help you sort out everything that has happened over the last 24+ hours.
We’ll unpack nine bids in this article.
America East
Automatic Bid: Bryant
Projected Seed: 15 or 16
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Bulldogs will be participating in the Big Dance for just the second time in school history, and this time around Bryant appears to be a much more intriguing squad. Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad gets after it, pushing the pace offensively and landing at No. 7 nationally in KenPom’s tempo rating. Solid backcourt play led by Rafael Pinzon (18.5 PPG) and Earl Timberlake (15.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) are the catalysts for this approach, but a relatively deep rotation ensures that there isn’t a loss of energy in the late stages of games.
The problem with getting overly excited about this group is that opponents have seemingly been able to neutralize that pace in games which the Bulldogs have lost. In six of its 11 defeats this season, Bryant has been held to 70 points or fewer, which is significant for a squad that ranks No. 24 in the country averaging 81.6 PPG.
Assuming that the Bulldogs receive one of the lowest seeds in the Tournament, it’s a decent bet that they could be the most exciting outfit of such seeds. However, I don’t see there being more than one game for this squad.
Mid-Eastern Athletic
Automatic Bid: Norfolk State
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Spartans needed to claw back from a first half deficit, then stave off a furious comeback in the final minutes of the MEAC title game to ensure that they would be dancing. Needless to say, Robert Jones’s team is battle tested, but to drive that point home further, Norfolk State has engaged in eight games decided by five points or fewer this season. Adding to that, the Spartans really challenged themselves in the non-conference schedule, taking on the likes of James Madison, Stanford, Grand Canyon, Baylor and Tennessee.
Norfolk State shoots the ball very well from inside the arc (48.9 percent, No. 17 nationally), and leading scorer Brian Moore Jr. (18.4 PPG) leads the charge from that perspective by also leading the team with a 54.6 percent field goal percentage. The team tends to lean heavily on Moore for production offensively, which could present a problem against more equipped competition that have the personnel to mark him well.
The Spartans were the last MEAC program to wear the glass slipper when they upset No. 2 seed Missouri in 2012. A repeat of such success doesn’t appear likely.
Mountain West
Automatic Bid: Colorado State
Projected Seed: 11 or 12
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
At-Large Bid Potential: Boise State, New Mexico, Utah State
The prevailing sentiment that the Rams will end up with a double-digit seed in the Big Dance puts this team comfortably in the camp of being able to accept the glass slipper with a couple of victories. Based on record and conference affiliation alone, it does feel like a bit of an undersell, but digging into the details more, we find out why Colorado State may have a hard time fitting into that choice of footwear.
Niko Medved’s team is very deliberate offensively and won’t be goaded into accepting a pace it isn’t comfortable with (it’s preferred pace: slow). The Rams shoot the ball well from both inside and outside the arc and have enough length to give larger brands some issues. Guard Nique Clifford is an athletic 6’6” guard with NBA potential and the ability to put this team on his back, doing just about everything for the Rams at a high level. He is certainly capable of becoming a breakout star this March.
Despite all of these positives, Colorado State’s resume was boosted in large part by three victories over Boise State and two over Utah State. There were other opportunities to prove that the Rams can beat Tournament competition, but for the most part those were wasted. I like this team on paper but do feel like they will come up short in a bid to be a Tournament darling.
Metro Atlantic Athletic
Automatic Bid: Mount St. Mary’s
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Mountaineers are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2021, and despite never having received better than a 16 seed, will be looking to add to their Division I NCAA Tournament victory tally (both previous came in the First Four). That being said, it’s unlikely that Mount St. Mary’s will improve upon its seeding and similarly unlikely that they will be wearing this glass slipper this season.
Donny Lind’s squad gets after it on the boards, gobbling up rebounds at a rate that puts it near the top ten percent of teams in the country. As a result, three players average near a double-double (forwards Dola Adebayo, Terrell Ard Jr. and Jedy Cordilia) and keying in on any one person is difficult to do with this team. The Mountaineers will need to be resourceful in order to play more than one game, as its offensive efficiency isn’t great and they have been one of the luckiest teams nationally according to KenPom (No. 2 in luck rating).
Having finished fourth in the MAAC, Mount St. Mary’s is already playing with house money and should be happy to be part of the Big Dance. Their probability of being a Cinderella is very low.
Mid-American
Automatic Bid: Akron
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Zips have lost only one game since the beginning of 2025 and managed to withstand the pressure of being such a heavy favorite in the MAC tournament, closing out the final in the waning seconds with a bucket to knock off Miami of Ohio. Making that basket to send Akron to the NCAA Tournament was team leader Nate Johnson, who gets things done on both sides of the court, leading the team in scoring (14 PPG) and defensive takeaways (1.8 SPG).
John Groce’s team is relatively experienced, with seven of its eight top players in terms of minutes and scoring are upperclassmen. Offensively, Akron is a solid outfit which shoots the ball well, but sometimes the Zips are questionable on the defensive end.
If Akron is able to turn its game(s) into a track meet, it will be a dangerous lower seed. Neutralizing the Zips means slowing the game down, playing good closeout defense and forcing the game to be as physical as possible so as to challenge this slightly undersized squad to play big.
Conference USA
Automatic Bid: Liberty
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
The Flames are making their sixth appearance in the Big Dance, and over the course of the last decade or so have elevated their status to one of “happy to be here” to a team with real aspirations to make a run in the bracket. This year’s team will look to continue that trend, building on an impressive regular season in which Liberty was one of the more unselfish squads in the country, averaging 16.9 assists per game (No. 24 nationally).
Ritchie McKay relies on a relatively small rotation of seven players to do most of the heavy lifting for the Flames, but that has generally been a very successful approach this season, as Liberty has been respectable from an offensive efficiency perspective and very solid in terms of defensive efficiency. All seven from that rotation are upperclassmen and while the Flames aren’t overly large, they do have decent length.
One thing seems almost certain: Liberty is very unlikely to get blown out in any game it plays in the Tournament. The Flames have lost just a single game by more than 10 points this season, and this was with a schedule that saw them take on opponents like Florida Atlantic, Kansas State and McNeese State.
Southwestern Athletic
Automatic Bid: Alabama State
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Hornets are almost certainly headed to Dayton with a spot in the First Four, where they will look to grab their first Division I NCAA Tournament victory in the program’s fifth appearance.
Tony Madlock’s team has had a rollercoaster affair this season, at one point dropping seven of eight before reeling off victories in 10 of its last 11 games (including the SWAC tournament) to punch an unlikely bid to the Big Dance. Instrumental in the success during that time was guard CJ Hines, who hit better than 43 percent of his three-point attempts during that 11 game stretch. Fellow backcourt mate TJ Madlock has been consistent all season and leads the team in assists and rebounds per game, and is third on the team in points per game (12.6 PPG).
Alabama State may continue to surprise people when it comes to a possible First Four date, but beyond that not much can be expected of this team. The glass slipper will almost certainly be too big to fit.
Big West
Automatic Bid: UC-San Diego
Projected Seed: 11 or 12
Cinderella Probability: Decent
At-Large Bid Potential: UC-Irvine
It can often be hard for West Coast teams to drum up a lot of interest in their success, but it has truly been a banner year for the Tritons. Eric Olen’s squad will be making the first appearance in the Big Dance for UC-San Diego as a program and set the school-record for victories with 30 on the season. There is a decent chance that the party isn’t over yet, either, as this team appears primed for a surprise run.
The Tritons do almost everything well, from running an efficient offense and playing very efficient defense, to preventing costly mistakes (the team is No. 2 in the country averaging just 8.7 turnovers per contest). Team leader Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a big, physical guard at 6’6” 200 pounds that can create chances for himself around the basket, and as a whole the Tritons can rip your heart out thanks to good three-point shooting. In particular, guard Hayden Gray is deadly from behind the arc, averaging 42.8 percent from that range. Gray put on a display in the Big West title game with six three-pointers.
Try to learn how to say the New Zealander’s name correctly (pronounced On-i-wan-iwa), because he just might be the breakout star of the tournament.
Western Athletic
Automatic Bid: Grand Canyon
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
Since joining the Division I ranks just over a decade ago, the Antelopes have quickly ascended as one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country. This season’s bid to the Tournament will mark the fourth time since 2021 that Grand Canyon has made the Big Dance, and each time success has been built upon. Most recently, last season the Antelopes notched their first NCAA Tournament victory, as a 12 seed.
Much of last season’s team remained intact, including guard and former Kansas Jayhawk Tyon Grant-Foster. Bryce Drew pulled JaKobe Coles from TCU for this season, and the forward has added additional length and scoring prowess (14.8 PPG) to a squad that likes to push the pace. The Antelopes are much more comfortable getting to the basket than playing from behind the arc. They don’t take a ton of threes (19.8 attempts per game) and don’t make a high percentage of the ones they do take (31.5 percent as a team).
Many fans will be familiar with Grand Canyon following last season’s upset victory in the first round of the Tournament, and the team certainly won’t sneak up on any opponents. Coach Drew is one of the best in the business orchestrating the approach he believes in, though, so the Antelopes should be considered a threat to make waves in March again.
