This group has been anointed the title “Group of Death”, which was only lightly debated in the lead up to this tournament.
France has either won or been in the final the previous two World Cups, and left players at home that could have assembled a competitive squad. Senegal by FIFA ranking is the second-best team out of Africa, though the experience on the Lions of Teranga coupled with a balanced tactical approach makes them as dangerous as anyone from that continent. Norway is as fun as anyone in the tournament on the attack and flew through European qualifying. And despite being the minnow, this young Iraq squad showed poise in the intercontinental playoff to get to this point.
Group I is can’t miss action across its roughly two weeks of existence.
The Teams
Embed from Getty ImagesFrance
Best Case Scenario
Following back-to-back Final appearances in the previous two World Cups and a trip to the semifinals in the most recent EUROs, France comes into this year’s tournament as favorites. This squad is absolutely stacked at all levels, with a strong mix of experience (from Kylian Mbappe to Lucas Hernandez and Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé) to pair with talented youth (Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki and Malo Gusto, to name a few).
The decisions Didier Deschamps had to make resulted in a group left at home that probably could have made the knockout rounds itself. If there is a question mark at all, it’s the lack of experience in goal, but even that is a stretch argument. Anything but a third World Cup title will be a major disappointment for the French.
Realistic Expectation
France will almost certainly book an extended stay in the United States, but for as good as the squad is this tournament is far from a them vs. the field choice to hoist the trophy. A semifinals appearance seems likely, sure, but the expectations are sky high and Deschamps has already stated that he intends to step down as manager following this tournament, adding an extra dose of pressure to perform.
If anything, France’s biggest competition in this tournament is itself. Often times that can be the most difficult opponent to beat.
Embed from Getty ImagesIraq
Best Case Scenario
Iraq’s first trip to the World Cup in four decades is littered with landmines, but on the bright side its style of play won’t have to be adjusted much to compete. The Lions of Mesopotamia are realistic about the firepower they have up front and prefer to play a disciplined game that relies on occasional counterattacks.
Any points earned in the group stage would still be considered a surprise, but at least if Iraq is going to secure them by stifling strong attacks, it won’t be trying to reinvent itself on the fly in the world’s biggest tournament.
Realistic Expectation
The other three teams in this group are ranked no lower than No. 31 in FIFA’s rankings. Iraq is No. 57.
Graham Arnold’s squad will do its best to grind out results and give themselves a shot in matchday three after facing the world’s most feared striker in matchday one and the world’s top overall team in matchday two. The task speaks for itself in terms of difficulty.
Embed from Getty ImagesNorway
Best Case Scenario
Generally overlooked thanks to the presence of France and people’s soft spot for Senegal, Norway is the x-factor that makes this group Around The Corn’s choice for the Group of Death in the tournament. The Norwegians were terrific in European qualifying, raising some eyebrows by scoring an astounding 37 goals (eight more than the next closest team).
At minimum, Norway should be one of the most exciting teams in the tournament thanks to an aggressive, fun offensive style that features Erling Haaland and silky midfield play from Martin Ødegaard. At best, the rest of the team clicks as well and this team serves as the surprise of the entire tournament, with the capability to make a run multiple knockout rounds deep.
Realistic Expectation
It’s incredibly difficult to totally neutralize Haaland, though possible for some of the better defensive teams in the tournament. Norway happens to play one of them in the group stage, and with Senegal presenting the opportunity for a shootout (which are difficult to predict), this team is equally as likely to finish third in the group as it is to shock people by topping it.
Given the feast or famine possibility, anything beyond a Round of 16 appearance would exceed expectations.
Embed from Getty ImagesSenegal
Best Case Scenario
If it weren’t for a generational Morocco squad, Senegal would come into this tournament as the darlings of Africa. There is a lot to like about this squad, particularly its experience. Between Sadio Mané, Idrissa Gueye and Kalidou Koulibaly, three players alone have amassed nearly 360 caps for their nation.
Age isn’t necessarily a detractor, either, as there is still enough athleticism on this roster to suggest Senegal could get a result against all three of its opponents in Group I, which is chalk full of athleticism. The Lions of Teranga are comfortable playing a variety of styles, which should bode well for the team to have a chance at advancing in the knockout rounds provided they can muster enough points in the group stage.
Realistic Expectation
The focus will be on the rematch with France, but Senegal’s most important battle may be with Norway. Any points there would put Pape Thiaw’s team in a great position, if it also takes care of business against Iraq.
A trip to the knockout round is very reasonable for this group. Winning a knockout round game depends a lot on the opponent, but as mentioned earlier the style of play won’t be a significant factor in determining that.
Matches to Watch
Embed from Getty ImagesFrance vs. Senegal (June 16 – 3 PM ET)
A rematch of the 2002 World Cup group stage between these two nations, which Senegal won, kicks off the Group of Death at MetLife Stadium.
Norway vs. France (June 26 – 3 PM ET)
From Erling Haaland to Kylian Mbappe and plenty in between, this match may be the most star-studded of the entire group play stage.
Predictions (Bold Advance to Knockout Stage)
Embed from Getty Images1. France
2. Norway
3. Senegal
4. Iraq
