The year – 2024. The status – Mountain West Conference, marked safe from extinction.
The end of a storied run by the Conference of Champions paired with the Big 12’s rebranding as a nearly nationwide collective of castoffs from various other leagues has pretty much assured that the Mountain West’s most lucrative brands aren’t headed elsewhere any time soon. And that’s a good thing for college football diehards, some of whom are bemoaning the death of college football as it should be in favor of today’s ultra-commercialized product (get with the times, those of you out there, but also, I hear you).
The shift of the game towards more money for everyone has its perks for the league, too. As one of the two best G5 conferences year in and year out, the Mountain West should have plenty of chances to briefly gain national relevance with a couple of lucky results that sees a team from its stable advance past the first weekend of the new 12-team playoff. In the first year of the expanded Playoff’s existence, the Mountain West is as capable as any G5 league to send a team to do just that.
Sorry in advance, Boise State – you’ve just been kissed by K. Becks. And to the other 11 teams in contention, you’re welcome.
Teams I Like
Boise State
With the debut of the 12-team Playoff this season, the Broncos picked a great time to potentially return to dominance of the Mountain West Conference. Boise State has it all – a workhorse running back, a talented transfer QB from a major power (highly-touted redshirt freshman Malachi Nelson), a defense with nearly everyone back and a new head coach with the ability to unlock that defense’s potential.
The Broncos are nearly always the favorite, but have dipped out of the national spotlight recently after some less than impressive campaigns. Things set up nicely for Spencer Danielson’s squad to be able to reintroduce itself to that stage, with a trip to Las Vegas to face UNLV potentially the only conference game where the Broncos won’t be heavily favored.
Fresno State
Perhaps the biggest thorn in Boise State’s side over the past half decade has been the Bulldogs, which have beaten the Broncos in 3 of the past 5 meetings, including two Mountain West Conference title games. Though Fresno State misses Boise State during the regular season, it will be in great position to set up yet another title game showdown if it can successfully navigate one or both of tricky road tests against UNLV and Air Force.
Jeff Tedford is one of the best at developing quarterback talent, and sophomore Mikey Keene should be set up to be one of the conference’s best once again this season. Skill position talent returns in droves for the Bulldogs and Keene nearly eclipsed 3,000 yards passing last season with far fewer returning starters on offense.
Wyoming
The Cowboys are certainly a dark horse candidate to contend for the Mountain West title, and a bet on them would pay off handsomely. Confidence from the new coaching staff, which replaces Wyoming legend Craig Bohl following his retirement, suggests that the team is willing to bet on itself. That’s a promising sign, because the offensive success will largely hinge on an unproven talent in junior quarterback Evan Svoboda. Expected to be able to make tough throws and be accurate doing it, Svoboda will need to live up to the high praise received within his camp to ensure the Cowboys are strong on both sides of the ball.
If Svoboda delivers, Wyoming should also benefit from kind scheduling that sees it play fellow conference contenders Air Force, Utah State and Boise State all in Laramie. An upset or two could mean a thirteenth game for the Cowboys before bowl season.
Not High On
Air Force
The Falcons shot out of the gate in 2023 and put together their best start in a quarter century, earning a Top 25 ranking and prompting frat boys everywhere to don their royal blue crewnecks by the second leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s challenge. Unfortunately, even chants of “USA! USA!” by inebriated collegegoers couldn’t save Air Force from a dramatic plummet, as the team dropped its final four games of the regular season. Injuries will do that to you, and injuries often come with the territory when running a physical brand of the flexbone offense.
Why is any of that relevant? Well, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been with the program for 17 seasons and his OC is the longest-tenured in the country. You’re not getting anything new from this team. Consistency is important, but results are telling. The Falcons have never won the Mountain West and only been to the conference title game once, despite having multiple opportunities to get there more often. This year’s team is pretty talented overall, but that isn’t changing in 2024. Go ahead, Air Force – prove me wrong, I won’t be mad. It’s impossible to root against a service academy.
Players To Watch
Aston Jeanty, junior Boise State running back
Wisconsin may be Running Back U nationally, but Boise State certainly lays claim to that title out West. Jeanty is next in a long line of recent backs for the Broncos (Alexander Mattison, Jeremy McNichols, Jay Ajayi, Doug Martin) that have served as the bell cow for the Boise State offense before heading off to play on Sundays.
A sizable back (215 pounds) with soft hands, Jeanty is versatile in the backfield but certainly physical enough to impose fear in opposing defenses. While his NFL Draft stock likely continues to rise, Jeanty will be instrumental in what should be a very productive season for the Boise State offense in general.
Ricky White, junior UNLV wide receiver
The only receivers in FBS to outgain White in the 2023 regular season were both first round Draft picks this April. Originally a Michigan State Spartan, the 6’1” junior took his talents to the G5 ranks in 2022 and has not disappointed there. Although White was fortunate to be working with revelation at quarterback Jayden Maiava last season (now with Southern Cal), there is little reason to believe he won’t make good on preseason predictions to be named to the first-team All-American list.
White’s combination of excellent route running and raw speed will be difficult for NFL-caliber defensive backs to deal with, let alone some of the competition he will line up against this season.
Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi, sophomore Colorado State quarterback
Still a raw talent with plenty of room to grow, the sophomore gunslinger’s best years appear to still be ahead of him. That’s a scary prediction for opposing defensive coordinators, given that Fowler-Nicolosi led the Mountain West in passing yards per game last season (288.3). The rest of the offense should be increasingly comfortable with the Air Raid scheme employed by the coaching staff, and that comfort should translate into more openings for Fowler-Nicolosi.
At times freshman mistakes were made last season (he also led the conference in interceptions thrown), but assuming a full year of experience under his belt will show almost immediately, the name Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi is poised to become a household name in the near term. The duel with Shedeur Sanders in September should be an opportunity to play in front of a national audience.
Games to Watch (Non-Conference)
Fresno State at Michigan (August 31)
The Bulldogs probably won’t win this game outright, but have a decent chance of casting major doubt that the reigning national champs will be in the thick of things once again come December.
Boise State at Oregon (September 7)
Two Playoff hopefuls square off in Eugene, and most fans would be wrong if asked to answer which program holds a 3-0 record versus the other. Keeping that streak alive will be tough for the Broncos, but it should be a good test for both either way.
Games to Watch (Conference)
Fresno State at UNLV (September 28)
The MWC opener for the Rebels is a big one, and also kicks off a nasty stretch of games featuring two conference heavyweights, two Power conference teams and a tricky road contest against Utah State. The good news for UNLV is that this one comes after a week off.
Air Force at Wyoming (September 28)
We’ll find out a lot about both teams in this one, which could realistically be a clash between unbeatens. Wyoming’s defense should be good but will have its hands full against an Air Force team that gets a bye week beforehand to prepare and recoup.
Boise State at UNLV (October 26)
A decent bet to be a part 1 of 2 (the title game being the ‘2’), this one sets up nicely for the Broncos despite being their toughest road game. Boise State will be coming off of a bye and the Rebels will be finishing up the toughest part of their slate, having just played away at Utah State and Oregon State.
Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
Boise State to Make Playoff (+400)
The joint odds leader in the clubhouse along with Liberty amongst G5 teams, Boise State’s superior brand should give it a slight leg up in the polls if there is debate about which of the two is actually better.
Air Force over 6.5 wins (-145)
Yes, earlier I dragged them through the trenches they’ll try to dominate this season, but they’re not going to be that bad. There’s an outside shot the Falcons even eclipse this mark in the first seven games of the season.
Wyoming to make Mountain West Conference title game (+400)
Now we’re cooking with gas. The Cowboys making this game would be a major surprise with so many other strong teams near the top of the conference, but if you buy stock when a coach tells you to, this is another opportunity.
Predictions
- Boise State (11-1, [7-0])
- Fresno State (9-3, [6-1])
- Wyoming (8-4, [4-3])
- Colorado State (6-6, [4-3])
- Utah State (6-6, [4-3])
- Air Force (8-4, [4-3])
- UNLV (7-5, [4-3])
- Hawaii (6-6, [3-4])
- San Jose State (4-8, [2-5])
- San Diego State (4-8, [2-5])
- Nevada (1-11, [0-7])
- New Mexico (1-11, [0-7])
Conference Title Game
Fresno State at Boise State
Champion: Boise State
