Last year the ACC shook things up by eliminating its divisional format, ending a nearly two decade run that was marked by some pretty unfortunate title game matchups (looking at you, 2018 edition between Clemson and Pittsburgh). All in all it was a good move, allowing the conference an opportunity to try to keep pace with the other Power leagues in the shift towards super-conferences. Unfortunately for commissioner Jim Phillips, the end product didn’t bear fruit. In a controversial decision, undefeated champion Florida State was left out of the final four team College Football Playoff, in large part due to an injury suffered by its star quarterback. The rest, as they say, is history that most people outside of Tallahassee, Florida won’t remember five years from now.
Heading into 2024, the conference got serious – by adding geographically sensible additions Cal, SMU and Stanford. While this does add significant travel burdens for a number of teams this season, the league is getting closer to compete academically with the likes of the Big Ten. Not all bad, right?
Wrong. This season could be defining for the cash cow, Florida State, which has already voiced not so quietly its desire to explore its options if the relationship between school and league (i.e. mutual monetary benefit) doesn’t improve. Costly as it may be, that exploration will likely continue and if departure occurred, would seemingly be the first of many dominoes to fall.
But back to the present – Florida State will have its hands full trying to defend its ACC title in 2024, with a number of teams chomping at the bit to take the crown.
Teams I Like
Clemson
Did you buy the dip? Dabo Swinney warned college football fans that the Tigers’ struggles during the early part of 2023 were an anomaly and that Clemson would be back to their consistent winning ways soon enough, and it appears as though Swinney wasn’t just blowing smoke. The Tigers are as well set up as any team in the ACC to make it to the inaugural 12-team Playoff, with plenty of returning starters on offense familiar with Garrett Riley’s up-tempo system, now in Year 2 at Clemson.
We’ll know by early October just how valuable this stock is, as the Tigers kick off the season against Georgia in Atlanta and must travel to Florida State, but following the game in Tallahassee things ease up considerably save an early November trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech. If the offense improves behind a better line, it will be tough to beat the Tigers given that their defense should be one of the best in the country, let along the conference.
Miami
Call this one K Becks Wishful Thinking / K. Becks Kiss of Death / a plain bad take, but remember Around The Corn if the Hurricanes make good on a prediction to waltz into the 12-team Playoff in Year 1 of its existence. An inconsistent 2023 squad has been upgraded in a major way thanks to the transfer portal, with Mario Cristobal landing highly touted running back Damien Martinez from Oregon State and one of the most sought-after quarterbacks in the portal, Cam Ward, from Washington State. Ward will have the luxury of throwing behind a strong O-line and throwing to one of the most sure-handed guys in the country in Xavier Restrepo, so expect the Hurricanes to be potent offensively.
Things ramp up for Miami quickly with a trip to Gainesville to start the year, but the Hurricanes manage to draw both Virginia Tech and Florida State at home and miss Clemson entirely. Recall that Miami lost to Georgia Tech in one of the most improbable ways last season, and that brings up a key point – Cristobal has perhaps his most complete team as a head coach. He needs to avoid trying to do too much, and just let these guys play. They’ll reward him for it.
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack are certainly a dark horse to make the Playoff this season, but Dave Doeren’s hard-nosed, ‘Never Give Up’ attitude is paired well with North Carolina State’s newest signal-caller, former Coastal Carolina and three-time Sun Belt Conference POY Grayson McCall. The Wolfpack also picked up underrated Duke transfer Jordan Waters to be the feature back, and he’ll thrive behind a veteran O-line.
It has felt before like North Carolina State is missing something in order to be considered a true threat to the big boys, but the additions to the offensive skill positions coupled with what should again be a strong defense may change that. A trip to Clemson mid-September feels like the only game where the Wolfpack deserve to be a significant underdog.
Not High On
Florida State
Writing this makes me feel even worse for Florida State fans, a group that suffered incredibly bad fortune last year when Jordan Travis went down with a leg injury in the penultimate regular season contest against North Alabama. To add insult to injury, the Seminoles aren’t even remotely the same team as in 2023 and I have major doubts that DJ Uiagalelei is going to have a meteoric rise after two decent but not spectacular seasons quarterbacking Clemson and Oregon State.
We’re going to find out this season just how keen an eye Mike Norvell has in the transfer portal, as the Seminoles will be relying on a number of new pieces to replace 10 NFL draft picks. Gelling together won’t be easy, but will be imperative, facing a gauntlet of a schedule that includes trips to SMU, Miami, Clemson, a Euro trip to face Georgia Tech and home contests against Clemson, North Carolina and Florida.
Players To Watch
Cam Ward, senior Miami quarterback
Ward quietly produced better than all but a few future NFL Draft picks out of the Pac-12 last season, and the only reason it was done so quietly is because Washington State faded hard in the second half of the year. Otherwise, Ward’s status as one of the top targets in the portal may have been elevated further and the preseason expectations placed upon him loftier.
That being said, he’s still a legitimate Heisman contender and that will only become more likely if Miami has the season I think they’re capable of having. Expect Ward to improve upon key metrics like completion percentage (66.6 percent) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (25-7) this season.
Thomas Castellanos, junior Boston College quarterback
Castellanos wasn’t even projected to be a starter at the beginning of last season, but by its end he was the most productive dual-threat quarterback not named Jayden Daniels (whatever happened to him?). While needing to cut down on his turnovers, some level of riskiness can be accepted by the coaching staff to promote versatility.
The Eagles have a revamped coaching staff this season, but Castellanos should still thrive and likely improve under Bill O’Brien’s group. He also has the luxury of throwing/running behind a very talented offensive line, which makes things even more interesting.
Grayson McCall, senior North Carolina State quarterback
It’s shocking that it took this guy five years to finally transfer to a Power program (though he did flirt with the portal once before the previous offseason). McCall is the kind of player that fits perfectly in Dave Doeren’s system, willing to put his body on the line for an important first down. That being said, I hope he stays healthy as that has been a slight issue in the past.
McCall boasts over 10,000 yards passing, over 1,000 yards rushing and 106 touchdowns between his arm and legs to Raleigh, where the fan base is desperate for a team that breaks through the proverbial ceiling of expectations. Health willing and with a bit of luck, McCall can get that done.
Xavier Restrepo, senior Miami wide receiver
Restrepo is the type of player that is easy for opposing teams’ fans to hate, because his receptions often come at the most inopportune times for their team. His ability to get open downfield is exceptional and he has a sixth sense for where the first down marker is located.
With Cam Ward throwing the ball, Restrepo has an opportunity to eclipse his 85 receptions from last season and could very easily beat his total of 6 touchdown catches (in fact, it seems likely). Another first-team ACC selection seems imminent.
Games to Watch (Non-Conference)
Clemson vs. Georgia [game in Atlanta] (August 31)
Nothing like a massive tilt with Playoff implications to kick off the first full weekend of college football. Clemson’s offense in year two with Garrett Riley will need to be sharp.
Florida State at Notre Dame (November 9)
Depending on what happens during earlier ACC play, this could be a Playoff knockout round for the Seminoles. The Fighting Irish should be fresh coming off of a bye.
Games to Watch (Conference)
Florida State at SMU (September 28)
Welcome to the ACC, Mustangs. Game one of SMU’s existence as an ACC member is a big one, and could be a day to remember in Plano if the offense is electric.
Clemson at Florida State (October 5)
Circled on the calendar by both ACC fans and those nationally, the road to the conference title game almost surely runs through Tallahassee on the first weekend of October. Recall that last year’s edition of this matchup took overtime to settle.
Florida State at Miami (October 26)
If Miami lives up to the hype, then this will be the biggest game in Coral Gables since the dynasty teams of the early 2000s. The ACC is better when these two are battling for conference supremacy.
Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
SMU over 8.5 wins (+120)
It may seem like a stretch to say that the Mustangs can compete with ACC competition week in and week out in their first year within the conference, but the offense is strong enough to keep pace even if the defense is in for a rude awakening. The biggest game on the schedule is also at home.
Duke under 5.5 wins (+140)
Sadly for the Blue Devils, it appears that the departure of Mike Elko, Riley Leonard, Jordan Waters, et al. will take a quick toll on this program. The schedule is tough, and even a proven defensive mind like Manny Diaz will have a tough time slowing down the likes of Florida State, SMU, Miami and North Carolina State, all in successive weeks, to the extent that it will translate to wins.
North Carolina State to make Playoff (+500)
How badly do you root for the underdog? The guys that just don’t quit? A Playoff bound Wolfpack squad would mean that Dave Doeren’s philosophy still works in this day and age, and would likely mean Grayson McCall proved he could work magic at the Power conference level as well.
Predictions
- Miami (12-0, [8-0])
- Clemson (10-2, [7-1])
- SMU (10-2, [6-2])
- Florida State (9-3, [6-2])
- North Carolina (9-3, [6-2])
- North Carolina State (9-3, [5-3])
- Boston College (8-4, [5-3])
- Louisville (7-5, [5-3])
- Virginia Tech (8-4, [4-4])
- Pittsburgh (6-6, [4-4])
- Wake Forest (6-6, [3-5])
- California (6-6, [3-5])
- Syracuse (7-5, [3-5])
- Georgia Tech (3-9, [1-7])
- Stanford (3-9, [1-7])
- Virginia (2-10, [1-7])
- Duke (3-9, [0-8])
Conference Title Game
Clemson vs. Miami [game in Charlotte, NC]
Champion: Clemson
