The games on New Year’s Eve were excellent, provided you were a neutral viewer.
If you were a fan of the SEC or Around The Corn Sports Blog, the final results were horrible.
The self-proclaimed “toughest conference in college football” by its own fans is currently 6-5 in bowl games this season, and while there are a lot of factors that make judging a league by its postseason record difficult, the results yesterday were about as close as you can come to having an opportunity to draw conclusions from bowl games.
Illinois and South Carolina both cared. Alabama may not have, but Michigan wasn’t a good team this season. LSU was the only SEC team yesterday to actually outclass its opponent, and that opponent was Baylor.
To add insult to injury, the Around The Corn entry in the Von Hugendong Bowl Mania group went 1-4 yesterday. The CFP bracket is now busted, too.
As we turn the calendar to a new year, it’s probably time to turn the page on the minigames, too.
Let’s take a brief look at the New Year’s Day slate, exclusively featuring CFP Quarterfinal matchups.
Chic-fil-A Peach Bowl
#5 Texas vs. #4 Arizona State (Wednesday, 1 PM ET – ESPN)
A Longhorns team that is long on talent but short on offensive consistency will take on a Sun Devils squad that defied the odds this season to make it to this point. The Longhorns looked in control for nearly the entirety of their First Round matchup against Clemson, and Quinn Ewers has dispelled any concern about his health heading into this game. Quarterback play will be important for Texas in this one, as the Sun Devils boast the Big 12’s top run defense which can neutralize an area which has been key for Steve Sarkisian’s team in wins this season.
Arizona State’s approach may be rather simple – stop the run on defense, and use the run on offense to take chunks off the clock and possessions away from Ewers. By this point everyone knows Cam Skattebo, including the Texas defense, but as we saw in the Fiesta Bowl last night, knowing the challenge is only a sliver of the battle. Stopping it is an entirely different animal. I do think Skattebo can cause the Texas defense some issues, but in the end the Sun Devils will need to play a nearly perfect game in order to pull off the upset. If Arizona State doesn’t win the turnover battle, it will have a difficult time slowing down the Texas offense for four quarters. The end result of this game may draw close parallels with that of the Fiesta Bowl.
My Pick: 33-20 Texas
Bowl Mania Confidence: 41 points
Rose Bowl Game
#8 Ohio State vs. #1 Oregon (Wednesday, 5 PM ET – ESPN)
The Rose Bowl got exactly what it hoped for, which is a rematch of one of college football’s best games of the 2024 regular season. It doesn’t come as much of a surprise to pundits and casuals alike – anyone who has watched the Buckeyes and Ducks this season can see that these are two of the best teams in the game. I’ll go out on a not-so-flimsy limb and say that this game is effectively the national title decider, and the winner of it will be holding up the trophy at the end of the night on January 20.
In the first matchup, the Buckeyes were unable to record a single sack on Dillon Gabriel, bringing into question the true strength of Ohio State’s defense. It is imperative that this time around, the Buckeyes are able to create more pressure on the Ducks’ quarterback and do their best to put Oregon in third-and-long situations. Ohio State’s secondary is good enough to play man defense on Oregon’s receivers, but even the best in the business cannot hang on forever if there is no pressure up front. If the Buckeyes can do this, I like their chances in this game. There of course will be some adjustments made from both sides, but in the end the strengths of both teams were on display in round one and Ryan Day knows as well as anyone what can happen if you try to get too cute with a gameplan. Dan Lanning showed his cards in the first game, and I don’t see a timely onside kick or creative substitutions bailing the Ducks out of any precarious situations this time around. This game will be a straight up sword fight, mimicking the regular season contest in style and flair, but this time the Buckeyes will show why nobody wanted to see their name across from theirs in this bracket.
My Pick: 30-28 Ohio State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 31 points
Allstate Sugar Bowl
#7 Notre Dame vs. #2 Georgia (Wednesday, 8:45 PM ET – ESPN)
It feels like a lifetime since the Fighting Irish drilled Indiana in South Bend, and it essentially has been since Georgia last played on December 7 of last year. In the interim, Georgia announced it will be without starting quarterback Carson Beck, which puts a major dent in the Bulldogs’ chances of not only winning the national title, but surviving this quarterfinal matchup. Notre Dame’s defense has not been kind to quarterbacks this season and will give Gunner Stockton, who will be making his first collegiate start on Wednesday night, plenty to think about. For a team that was third in the SEC in passing yards per game, it will require a coaching masterclass by Kirby Smart not only to slow down Notre Dame’s rushing attack, but to somehow put Stockton in a position to succeed.
For the majority of the regular season Georgia has seemingly had a problem getting its run game in gear, but somehow when needed it has shown up in some pretty big spots. Twice this season the Bulldogs had their backs against the ropes, only to find a way to run the ball on one of the best run stopping defenses in the country (Texas). The argument can be made that everyone will know it’s coming in this game, but the same could be said of the SEC title game approach as well. The advantage Georgia has now is that Stockton has had nearly a month to prepare, whereas he was thrown into the fold in early December. Notre Dame is a capable team and if Georgia isn’t crisp, the Fighting Irish will make them pay. But it feels like Coach Smart has been doubted before and came away smelling like a rose. I’m still picking the Bulldogs to come away victorious in this one, even without their star quarterback.
My Pick: 24-17 Georgia
Bowl Mania Confidence: 32 points
