The ending of the Music City Bowl was very Iowa-esque.
My buddy said it best – “nothing short of a medical emergency is taking Ferentz out of that job. They already had the chance to fire him with cause.”
As we move beyond the black-and-gold bowl, a full slate of games await for the final day of 2024.
Let’s take a look at the New Year’s Eve lineup, which features the first of the CFP quarterfinal matchups.
ReliaQuest Bowl
#11 Alabama vs. Michigan (Tuesday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
How the Wolverines managed to beat Ohio State this season will remain a mystery for quite some time, but the unlikely upset was Michigan’s ticket to the postseason. The reward for that victory is a date with the Alabama Crimson Tide, one of college football’s biggest underachievers in 2024 but in possession of one of the game’s brightest stars in true freshman wideout Ryan Williams. In Williams, the Crimson Tide have a weapon that can single-handedly break down Michigan’s defensive secondary if Kalen DeBoer is willing to let Jalen Milroe take advantage of his top downfield asset.
Michigan will be without two of its top rushing threats in Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, pieces that were instrumental in the Wolverines’ offensive attack this season. Also opting out of this game is tight end Colston Loveland, who while injured for a portion of the regular season provided Michigan with what little downfield threat it posed in the passing game for most of the year. Scoring was an issue for Michigan during the regular season and the challenges will be magnified in this game. The absences for Michigan combined with the mismatch Williams & Co. figure to be on the offensive end for the Crimson Tide make this an easy pick. I have Alabama for as many points as you can wager on a game in Bowl Mania.
My Pick: 34-13 Alabama
Bowl Mania Confidence: 47 points
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Louisville vs. Washington (Tuesday, 2 PM ET – CBS)
Correctly identifying which team is more excited to play in the West Texas sun on New Year’s Eve will be as important as anything in determining a winner of this game. Neither side will start the quarterback that led his team during the majority of the regular season, with Louisville’s Tyler Shough preparing for the NFL Draft and Washington having opted for backup Demond Williams Jr. in favor of Will Rogers in the regular season finale, foreshadowing the bowl game decision. Williams looked competent against Oregon despite the Huskies getting blown out, and appears to have more of a future than the Cardinals’ Harrison Bailey, a fifth-year senior currently with his third program.
In addition to the quarterback absence, Louisville is also without its top receiver, two defensive linemen and its top pass coverage cornerback in Quincy Riley. All of the aforementioned absences are preparing for the NFL Draft, meaning that the Cardinals are not only going to require other players to step up, but in a big way. Louisville will also be looking to completely shift its offensive approach for this game, relying on a heavy dose in the running game when normally the passing game leads the way. Washington was a mediocre team at best this season, but isn’t losing as many pieces to the team that got it to this point and the coaching staff will probably want to evaluate players at key positions a bit more, starting with Williams. It could be a bit ugly, but the Huskies will get the job done in El Paso.
My Pick: 27-20 Washington
Bowl Mania Confidence: 23 points
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
#20 Illinois vs. #15 South Carolina (Tuesday, 3 PM ET – ABC)
It is a shame that this game is being overshadowed by the Fiesta Bowl and the New Year’s Eve calendar date, as both the Ilini and Gamecocks massively overachieved this season and deserve the number of eyeballs that a bowl game traditionally played on New Year’s Day would ordinarily attract. If you combined Illinois’ 6-1 start with South Carolina’s 6-0 finish, it would be impossible to ignore such a team.
I was sold on Illinois after watching Bret Bielema’s team whittle away at Nebraska in a hostile Lincoln environment, dinking and dunking down the field thanks to a masterclass performance at quarterback by Luke Altmyer. The redshirt junior Altmyer proved his ability to be more than a game manager in that contest, and his willingness to spread the ball around to multiple targets provides confidence that he’ll be fine in this game without top wideout Pat Bryant. Luckily for Illinois, Bryant is the only key opt-out for this game, whereas South Carolina will be without top running back Rocket Sanders and edge rusher Kyle Kennard, whose 11.5 sacks this season led the way for the Gamecocks, which were third in the SEC in sacks (40 overall). More pressure will be placed on LaNorris Sellers, the SEC’s breakout performer this season, to keep the chains moving. Given his abilities with both his legs and arm, I think the Gamecocks will do just enough to take care of the Illini, which have struggled with dual threat quarterbacks. However, I won’t be surprised at all if it goes the other way.
My Pick: 28-27 South Carolina
Bowl Mania Confidence: 30 points
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
Baylor vs. LSU (Tuesday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Not surprisingly, LSU will be more affected by opt-outs in this game than Baylor. The Tigers will be without both starting tackles, top wideout Kyren Lacy and tight end Mason Taylor, who also played a key role in the passing attack for Brian Kelly’s team this season. Garrett Nussmeier may or may not suit up for the Tigers, which would dramatically change my pick, but has voiced his intention to return to LSU in 2025 so I am expecting he will play. The Bears are a much younger team with no talent ready to bolt for the NFL and can essentially treat this game and the bowl practices that come with it as extra reps heading into next season.
The main problem for the Tigers this season was their awful defense, particularly against the run. This reality should make Dave Aranda’s eyes light up, as the Bears did a 180 degree turn with their season by committing to the run in the second half of the year. Only once did Baylor fail to rush for at least 180 yards in its last six contests and won all six of them. Though I still believe there is enough talent for LSU to win this game if Nussmeier plays, Baylor may surprise people with its ability to keep the chains moving against its SEC foe. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this one, and if the Bears are able to do that then it could come down to the final few possessions. As we creep near the end of the bowl season, Bowl Mania points wagered don’t always reflect my true confidence that a team will win, and this game is a great example of that.
My Pick: 38-34 LSU
Bowl Mania Confidence: 40 points
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (CFP Quarterfinal)
#6 Penn State vs. #3 Boise State (Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The wise guys in Vegas are too close in proximity to Glendale to be underestimating Boise State’s chances in the Fiesta Bowl. Heading into this game, the Broncos are double-digit underdogs to the Nittany Lions, which easily dispatched of an SMU team that proved little other than providing strong validation for the argument that the Mustangs had no business being in the CFP to begin with. Many are questioning Boise State’s inclusion as well, particularly as an automatic quarterfinalist, but the Broncos proved they could hang with the big dogs in early September, barely falling to current No. 1 Oregon on the road.
Having Jeanty in the backfield will force Penn State to respect his abilities and bring more guys into the box to stop the Heisman runner-up. However, the Nittany Lions are as capable as any defense Jeanty has seen this season to contain him. The Broncos won’t be able to jump on Jeanty’s back as they have so many other times in 2024, and instead will need to rely on Maddux Madsen to make some throws. The sophomore quarterback is capable, but I have also seen good defenses make him look pedestrian. Penn State is one of the best, so it will be a tough task. On offense, Penn State is good enough with Drew Allar to take full advantage of a porous Boise State defensive secondary, so the Broncos will need to be ready for a track meet to stay competitive. However, the Fiesta Bowl is Boise State’s postseason home away from home, and I’m not going to bet against that. Give me the Broncos to shock the world in Glendale once again, almost 18 years to the day since doing it the first time.
My Pick: 37-34 Boise State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 21 points
