NL EAST
Atlanta Braves – Over 93.5 Wins
This is a tough line, as it’s not easy for a team to get over 94 wins, but the Braves lineup is just ridiculous all around, especially with the addition of Jurickson Profar to a lineup already loaded with talent. My one concern for this team is the pitching; they need to stay healthy this year to get over that 93.5 wins, and it’s been an obvious struggle for this team to avoid the injury bug. If they do, they dominate the NL East division, even the Phillies and Mets.
Exact Record Prediction: 99 – 63
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Jurickson Profar (3-year deal)
OF Bryan De La Cruz (1-year deal)
Who Left?
LHP Max Fried (Yankees)
OF Jorge Soler (trade with Angels)
C Travis d’Arnaud (Angels)
RHP Charlie Morton (Orioles)
LHP A.J. Minter (Mets)
3B Gio Urshela (Athletics)
OF Ramón Laureano (Orioles)
RHP John Brebbia (Tigers)
RHP Luke Jackson (Rangers)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over 90.5 Wins
I love the duo of Bryce Harper and Kyle Shwarber – what a threat for opposing pitchers! I do think their starting pitching rotation overperformed for the first half of the season last year, coming back to reality in the second half, but Wheeler is a certified Cy Young contender in 2025. My favorite acquisition for them is Max Kepler, who is a much needed buffer to their slowly sliding outfield core. He never got enough playing time in Minnesota, which was wild to me, as he proved to have some great power. We’ll see how he does defensively. Overall, I like the over on the Phillies.
Exact Record Prediction: 92 – 70
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Jesús Luzardo (trade with Marlins)
RHP Jordan Romano (1-year deal)
OF Max Kepler (1-year deal)
RHP Joe Ross (1-year deal)
Who Left?
RHP Jeff Hoffman (Blue Jays)
OF Austin Hays (Reds)
RHP Carlos Estévez (Royals)
Miami Marlins – Over 63.5 Wins
Sometimes I don’t think this organization actually cares about building a team, which is unfortunate for the fans (if they even have any at this point). The Marlins just try to get lucky with young players every one to two years, then trade away and rebuild. They continue to trade away their talented players. And yes, Milwaukee Brewers fans still thank the Marlins for Christian Yelich. The saddest part is that when considering it from a legacy standpoint, Marlins hats in Cooperstown and player banners in the rafters both seem incredibly unlikely. It’s a gross franchise, but this over/under is pretty much a tossup since half of their lineup hasn’t stepped foot on an MLB diamond yet. So screw it – let’s just go with the over.
Exact Record Prediction: 64 – 98
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Cal Quantrill (1-year deal)
INF Eric Wagaman (1-year deal)
1B Matt Mervis (trade with Cubs)
Who Left?
LHP Jesús Luzardo (trade with Phillies)
1B/3B Jake Burger (trade with Rangers)
Washington Nationals – Over 70.5 Wins
Lots of additions, minimal subtractions = bountiful opportunity. 71 wins last season for the Nationals highlighted their continuing rebuild after winning the World Series in 2019 and moving on from Juan Soto. Look to see a nice jump in their starting pitching rotation this upcoming season. In 2024 they showed signs of improvement all around. I really like the over here, as the Nationals got to 71 wins in both 2023 and 2024. This year they will hit the over.
Exact Record Prediction: 80-82
Big Offseason Acquisitions
1B Nathaniel Lowe (trade with Rangers)
RHP Michael Soroka (1-year deal)
1B Josh Bell (1-year deal)
RHP Trevor Williams (re-signed; 2-year deal)
INF Paul DeJong (1-year deal)
RHP Kyle Finnegan (re-signed; 1-year deal)
SS Amed Rosario (1-year deal)
RHP Jorge López (1-year deal)
LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara (2-year deal)
RHP Lucas Sims (1-year deal)
Who Left?
LHP Robert Garcia (trade with Rangers)
New York Mets – Under 90.5 Wins
Yikes – their starting rotation is not great and getting old! I don’t see this going well for them down the stretch in 2025 when it comes to pitching. My favorite addition is Juan Soto, as he’s going to get you wins on his own (7.9 WAR last season with the Yankees). They’re also in a highly explosive division when it comes to the offensive abilities of each team, so if their plan is to just outscore their division, they’re in for a rude awakening. I’ll take the under here, as they need more starting pitching.
Exact Record Prediction: 88 – 74
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Juan Soto (15-year deal)
1B Pete Alonso (re-signed; 2-year deal)
RHP Clay Holmes (3-year deal)
LHP Sean Manaea (re-signed; 3-year deal)
RHP Frankie Montas (2-year deal)
LHP A.J. Minter (2-year deal)
OF Jesse Winker (re-signed; 1-year deal)
OF Jose Siri (trade with Rays)
RHP Ryne Stanek (1-year deal)
RHP Justin Hagenman (1-year deal)
INF Jared Young (1-year deal)
RHP Griffin Canning (1-year deal)
RHP Drew Smith (re-signed; 1-year deal)
Who Left?
RHP Luis Severino (Athletics)
OF Harrison Bader (Twins)
RHP Adam Ottavino (Red Sox)
NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee Brewers – Over 82.5 Wins
Year after year, the Brewers “over” achieve when it comes to win totals. By most accounts the Brewers were projected to finish dead last in the NL Central in 2024, but surprised many by winning the division. In fairness, the Brewers did have a weak pitching staff last season after losing Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for the season. What is underestimated is the ability of the Brewers to develop starting pitching and bullpens, and this will continue to be a strong point for the Brewers in 2025 thanks in part to my favorite addition, Nestor Cortes. A lot depends on starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff’s return, as he’ll need to be a big piece of the starting rotation in 2025. We will see how they deal with Willy Adames and Devin Williams leaving the team, but the Brewers’ starting lineup is still incredibly well rounded this season. Look to see the same old aggressive baserunning and dominant bullpen in 2025.
Exact Record Prediction: 94 – 68
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Nestor Cortes (trade with Yankees)
RHP Grant Anderson (trade with Rangers)
RHP Elvin Rodriguez (1-year deal)
LHP Tyler Alexander (1-year deal)
LHP Grant Wolfram (1-year deal)
OF Mark Canha (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
SS Willy Adames (Giants)
RHP Devin Williams (trade with Yankees)
RHP Frankie Montas (Mets)
C Gary Sánchez (Orioles)
LHP Hoby Milner (Rangers)
RHP Joe Ross (Phillies)
LHP Wade Miley (Reds)
RHP Colin Rea (Cubs)
Chicago Cubs – Over 86.5 Wins
The Cubs will be decent this season. They’re a well managed team under Craig Counsell and his management of the team is continuing to improve. The offense will be improved with my favorite additions Kyle Tucker, Justin Turner and rising star Pete Crow-Armstrong. There are many other pieces that make this lineup scary, but their outfield is the strong suit. They currently have one of the best defensive outfields in the league. Big questions linger about the bullpen for the Cubs, as it doesn’t look to be one of their strong suits again this upcoming season. I think they hit the over and make a playoff appearance this upcoming season.
Exact Record Prediction: 87 – 75
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Kyle Tucker (trade with Astros)
LHP Matthew Boyd (2-year deal)
RHP Ryan Pressly (trade with Astros)
RHP Eli Morgan (trade with Guardians)
C Carson Kelly (2-year deal)
1B Justin Turner (1-year deal)
LHP Caleb Thielbar (1-year deal)
RHP Ryan Brasier (trade with Dodgers)
RHP Colin Rea (1-year deal)
3B Jon Berti (1-year deal)
RHP Cody Poteet (trade with Yankees)
UTIL Vidal Bruján (trade with Marlins)
INF Nicky Lopez (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
OF Cody Bellinger (trade with Yankees)
RHP Kyle Hendricks (Angels)
OF Mike Tauchman (White Sox)
RHP Jorge López (Nationals)
3B Isaac Paredes (trade with Astros)
RHP Hayden Wesneski (trade with Astros)
Cincinnati Reds – Over 79.5 Wins
The Reds’ 2024 season was disappointing, as they had a lot of hype surrounding them before the season started. While they didn’t have a terrible year, they just never found any momentum during. Looking forward to 2025, they have some bright spots to build on at all positions. Elly De La Cruz needs to build on last season for this to work. Elly had an OPS of .805, which is good, but they need more production from him overall. A factor of this is his strikeout rate, having 218 last season in 618 at bats (yikes). When looking at the acquisitions, Brady Singer stands out to me, helping their starting rotation immensely. I think they narrowly beat last season’s win total of 77 and achieve over 80 wins in 2025.
Exact Record Prediction: 81-81
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Nick Martinez (re-signed; accepted qualifying offer)
RHP Brady Singer (trade with Royals)
2B Gavin Lux (trade with Dodgers)
LHP Taylor Rogers (trade with Giants)
OF Austin Hays (1-year deal)
LHP Wade Miley (MiLB deal)
C Jose Trevino (trade with Yankees)
RHP Scott Barlow (1-year deal)
Who Left?
LHP Justin Wilson (Red Sox)
2B Jonathan India (trade with Royals)
1B Ty France (Twins)
SS Amed Rosario (Nationals)
RHP Jakob Junis (Guardians)
OF Joey Wiemer (trade with Royals)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over 75.5 Wins
The Pirates are actually making some decent offseason moves. Funny enough, FanDuel places them at the exact 76 win total that they achieved last season. While this team is still in rebuild mode, they’re moving up the ladder now. I love that they re-signed former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, as he has proven to still have some gas in the tank at 38 years old! What I like about this team is their starting pitching rotation – they’re young and ready to carry this team forward through the stretch. I’m taking the over this season for the Pirates, simply based on their pitching and hopefully some hitting development with the young talent and new acquisitions.
Exact Record Prediction: 82 – 80
Big Offseason Acquisitions
DH Andrew McCutchen (re-signed; 1-year deal)
1B Spencer Horwitz (3-team trade with Blue Jays/Guardians)
OF Tommy Pham (1-year deal)
LHP Andrew Heaney (1-year deal)
2B Adam Frazier (1-year deal)
LHP Caleb Ferguson (1-year deal)
LHP Tim Mayza (1-year deal)
INF/OF Enmanuel Valdez (trade with Red Sox)
Who Left?
LHP Aroldis Chapman (Red Sox)
RHP Luis L. Ortiz (trade with Guardians)
OF Bryan De La Cruz (Braves)
1B Connor Joe (Padres)
OF Michael A. Taylor (White Sox)
St. Louis Cardinals – Under 75.5 Wins
You are reading correctly – the Cardinals added ZERO players from free agency or trades with other teams! So yeah, you could say they are in full rebuild mode right now. 83 wins last year with a negative run differential of 47 is very lucky, to say the least. But this team seems to continually have luck on their side year after year. With that being said, I’m just not seeing a great run, especially with Goldschmidt gone this year. Therefore, I’m taking the under. Hopefully they’ll develop the young talent they’re expecting to utilize this season.
Exact Record Prediction: 69 – 93
Big Offseason Acquisitions
None
Who Left?
1B Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees)
RHP Andrew Kittredge (Orioles)
NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over 86.5
The D-Backs had 88 wins last season, missing the playoffs. Over the past two seasons, they’ve tended to struggle early in the year, hanging around the .500 mark, only to come alive toward the back half of the campaign. Look to see more stability early this year with additions to the starting pitching. While they lose their big sluggers Christian Walker and Joc Peterson, they did add Josh Naylor to counter Walker’s absence. Though this is a step back, I’d like to point attention to their starting pitching staff, which will be dominant for them this next season. Look to see Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Zach Gallen do good work, along with the addition of Corbin Burnes – my favorite this season. This starting rotation will be the most dominant in the National League this season and carry them to over 86.5 wins.
Exact Record Prediction: 91 – 71
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Corbin Burnes (6-year deal)
1B Josh Naylor (trade with Guardians)
OF Randal Grichuk (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RHP Kendall Graveman (1-year deal)
Who Left?
1B Christian Walker (Astros)
DH Joc Pederson (Rangers)
INF Kevin Newman (Angels)
1B Josh Bell (Nationals)
RHP Paul Sewald (Guardians)
RHP Slade Cecconi (trade with Guardians)
Colorado Rockies – Over 59.5 Wins
Still a developing team that’s fully in rebuild mode. I’m not going to dig into the Rockies too much for acquisitions and players who left as it’s a lot, and not many significant additions or subtractions. Look for Esequiel Tovar to continue his development and become a top 5 shortstop in the league this season offensively. Two additional offensive surprises from last season were Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia, and the trio combined for over 70 home runs in 2024. I don’t see regression from last year, as the team won 61 games and should hit the over for 2025 comfortably.
Exact Record Prediction: 69 – 92
Big Offseason Acquisitions
C Jacob Stallings (re-signed; 1-year deal)
INF Kyle Farmer (1-year deal)
INF Thairo Estrada (1-year deal)
LHP Scott Alexander (1-year deal)
Who Left?
RHP Cal Quantrill (Marlins)
2B Brendan Rodgers (Astros)
Los Angeles Dodgers – Over 104.5 Wins
Man, this team is good. I congratulate them for the amount of money they are able to spend, or defer – whatever. Oof. I mean, this team is unreal. I’m not going to wax poetic about it too much, as nearly everyone already knows just how good Dodgers have been and should continue to be. But hey, let’s say they have some injuries within the pitching rotation, as they did in 2024. Maybe then? Wait, sorry – that happened in 2024 and they still managed to amass 98 wins. Nope – sticking with the over 104.5. Favorite acquisition is Blake Snell, as he’ll add more to the starting rotation that weakened them in the regular season in 2024.
Exact Record Prediction: 110 – 52
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Blake Snell (5-year deal)
RHP Roki Sasaki (deal)
OF Teoscar Hernández (re-signed; 3-year deal)
LHP Tanner Scott (4-year deal)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (re-signed; 1-year deal)
UTIL Hyeseong Kim (3-year deal)
RHP Kirby Yates (1-year deal)
OF Michael Conforto (1-year deal)
RHP Blake Treinen (re-signed; 2-year deal)
UTIL Kiké Hernández (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RHP Giovanny Gallegos (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
RHP Walker Buehler (Red Sox)
RHP Jack Flaherty (Tigers)
2B Gavin Lux (trade with Reds)
San Diego Padres – Over 85.5 Wins
With 93 wins last season, the Padres were a juggernaut offensively, especially as the season progressed. Part of that was thanks to Jurickson Profar, who was signed by the Braves. The back end of their starting rotation worries me, particularly number five man Kyle Hart, who hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2020. But their offensive power is not to be overlooked. I think Jackson Merrill is one of the next MVP-level players in the MLB, and I excitedly look forward to seeing him continue to grow. My favorite acquisition from the offseason is Nick Pivetta, to help the starting rotation succeed in 2025. Taking this over, but barely.
Exact Record Prediction: 86 – 76
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Nick Pivetta (4-year deal)
C Elias Díaz (re-signed; 1-year deal)
1B Connor Joe (1-year deal)
OF Jason Heyward (1-year deal)
LHP Kyle Hart (1-year deal)
1B Yuli Gurriel (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
LHP Tanner Scott (Dodgers)
OF Jurickson Profar (Braves)
SS Ha-Seong Kim (Rays)
C Kyle Higashioka (Rangers)
LHP Martín Pérez (White Sox)
INF Donovan Solano (Mariners)
San Francisco Giants – Over 79.5
80 wins last season and now they add my favorite Brewer, Willy Adames. They’re going to be an offensive force, no doubt about it. On the other side, their pitching rotation is going to struggle, unfortunately. Their top two in All-Star Logan Webb and Justin Verlander are solid, but boy, oh boy, it looks pretty shaky after those guys. Hopefully, 23-year old Kyle Harrison makes a jump this year to bolster this pitching staff. I’m going to go with the over on this one, which will depend on the offensive scoring to pick up this year.
Exact Record Prediction: 82-80
Big Offseason Acquisitions
SS Willy Adames (7-year deal)
RHP Justin Verlander (1-year deal)
Who Left?
LHP Blake Snell (Dodgers)
OF Michael Conforto (Dodgers)
LHP Taylor Rogers (trade with Reds)
OF Mark Canha (Brewers)
