AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles – Under 86.5 Wins
There’s something just off about this young and talented team. Last season was a disappointment, and now their best pitcher, Corbin Burnes, has left for Arizona. I will say, they do have young talent all around the order, but it just seems as if they are sliding rather than improving. Specifically looking at Adley Ruschmann, which may have been just a sophomore slump. The exception to this is shortstop Gunnar Henderson, and I’m not sold on Jackson Holiday just yet – we’ll see more of him next season. What I’m sure about is no pitching improvement for them in 2025. So, to get over this hump, they’ll need to rely once again on their young hitting talent having lost offensive player Anthony Santander, who hit 44 home runs last season.
Exact Record Prediction: 86 – 76
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Tyler O’Neill (3-year deal)
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (1-year deal)
C Gary Sánchez (1-year deal)
RHP Charlie Morton (1-year deal)
RHP Andrew Kittredge (1-year deal)
OF Dylan Carlson (1-year deal)
OF Ramón Laureano (1-year deal)
Who Left?
RHP Corbin Burnes (D-backs)
OF Anthony Santander (Blue Jays)
DH Eloy Jiménez (Rays)
LHP John Means (Guardians)
OF Austin Slater (White Sox)
LHP Danny Coulombe (Twins)
RHP Jacob Webb (Rangers)
Boston Red Sox – Over 86.5 Wins
This is going to be the most competitive division in the AL this upcoming season, but I like the Red Sox odds to win it the most. The additions of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler add fantastic depth to their 2024 starting pitching rotation, which I would call “average”. The biggest question will be their closer, and how newly acquired Aroldis Chapman will be used. Chapman is still in the league?! Damn! Their hitting should be an improvement over a solid season last year, with Trevor Story returning and my favorite addition of Alex Bregman. I see an experienced, well-rounded team here looking to build off an 81-win season in 2024. The one thing I will comment on that I didn’t like was leaving Kenley Jansen to free agency. Do they really think that Chapman and Hendriks improve their bullpen? Either way, they may not need a great closer with the starting pitching and lineup that they’re posting for this season. Easily taking the over here.
Exact Record Prediction: 93 – 69
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Garrett Crochet (trade with White Sox)
3B Alex Bregman (3-year deal)
RHP Walker Buehler (1-year deal)
LHP Patrick Sandoval (2-year deal)
LHP Aroldis Chapman (1-year deal)
LHP Justin Wilson (1-year deal)
LHP Jovani Morán (trade with Twins)
C Carlos Narvaez (trade with Yankees)
RHP Adam Ottavino (MiLB deal)
LHP Matt Moore (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
OF Tyler O’Neill (Orioles)
RHP Kenley Jansen (Angels)
C Danny Jansen (Rays)
RHP Chris Martin (Rangers)
RHP Nick Pivetta (Padres)
RHP Lucas Sims (Nationals)
New York Yankees – Under 88.5 Wins
Wow – a pretty active offseason for the Yankees after making it to the World Series in 2024. I didn’t know about Paul Goldschmidt until researching – that went under the radar for me – but could be a huge addition. So yeah, they lost Juan Soto, and the Soto/Judge duo last year was incredible, posting over 250 RBIs for the Yanks in 2024. This is a huge loss in the most competitive division in the AL. Adding to this loss is the news that ace Gerrit Cole is out for the season with Tommy John surgery incoming. My favorite addition to the team has to be the airbender, Devin Williams, as it adds a much needed shutdown closer to get the job done. Look for this to be a bit of a rebuild year for the Yankees as they search for some young talent to fill gaps in the lineup. Taking the under here, sorry Yankees fans.
Exact Record Prediction: 88 – 72
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Max Fried (8-year deal)
RHP Devin Williams (trade with Brewers)
OF Cody Bellinger (trade with Cubs)
1B Paul Goldschmidt (1-year deal)
RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (re-signed; 1-year deal)
RHP Fernando Cruz (trade with Reds)
LHP Tim Hill (re-signed; 1-year deal)
C Alex Jackson (trade with Reds)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (MiLB deal)
LHP Tyler Matzek (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
OF Juan Soto (Mets)
2B Gleyber Torres (Tigers)
RHP Clay Holmes (Mets)
LHP Nestor Cortes (trade with Brewers)
RHP Tommy Kahnle (Tigers)
3B Jon Berti (Cubs)
LHP Tim Mayza (Pirates)
C Jose Trevino (trade with Reds)
RHP Cody Poteet (trade with Cubs)
Tampa Bay Rays – Over 81.5 Wins
Never bet against the Rays. They’re a grinding organization who always seems to have a plan with the less talented lineups they maintain compared with the competition. Favorite acquisition here is Ha-Seong Kim, hopefully giving their infield much valued depth this season. Look to see a better offensive year out of the young stud Christopher Morel as well, as he’s got the talent but needs to find his rhythm. This is just an all around solid organization and player roster, and I’m liking the over on this one.
Exact Record Prediction: 85 – 77
Big Offseason Acquisitions
INF Ha-Seong Kim (2-year deal)
C Danny Jansen (1-year deal)
DH Eloy Jiménez (MiLB deal)
RHP Alex Faedo (trade with Tigers)
Who Left?
OF Jose Siri (trade with Mets)
LHP Jeffrey Springs (trade with Athletics)
OF Dylan Carlson (Orioles)
LHP Tyler Alexander (Brewers)
Toronto Blue Jays – Over 79.5 Wins
Last season, it was 74 wins for the Blue Jays. Favorite acquisition they made during the offseason is the addition of Anthony Santander. The Venezuelan had a personal best 44 home runs last season, and will help the Blue Jays secure more power in their order with Vladdy Jr. Also look for Bo Bichette to have a solid comeback season after a disappointing year in 2024, although he only had a little over 300 ABs. The biggest question for this team is if their aging pitching staff can hold up, as their top 3 in the rotation are 34, 40 and 36-years old, respectively (YIKES). I’ll take the over here, as they do have a high ceiling if their pitching can hold up.
Exact Record Prediction: 83-79
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Anthony Santander (5-year deal)
RHP Jeff Hoffman (3-year deal)
RHP Yimi García (2-year deal)
RHP Max Scherzer (1-year deal)
2B Andrés Giménez (trade with Guardians)
RHP Nick Sandlin (3-team trade with Pirates/Guardians)
LHP Josh Walker (1-year deal)
OF Myles Straw (trade with Guardians)
Who Left?
RHP Jordan Romano (Phillies)
1B Spencer Horwitz (3-team trade with Pirates/Guardians)
AL Central
Chicago White Sox – Under 54.5 Wins
No explanation needed, always bet the under on the White Sox. How far can you really bounce back coming off of a historically terrible season and getting rid of your best starting pitcher (Garrett Crochet)? Sure, they’ll have more wins than last season – most likely.
Exact Record Prediction: 50 – 112
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Martín Pérez (1-year deal)
OF Austin Slater (1-year deal)
OF Mike Tauchman (1-year deal)
RHP Bryse Wilson (1-year deal)
3B Josh Rojas (1-year deal)
OF Michael A. Taylor (1-year deal)
LHP Tyler Gilbert (trade with Phillies)
C Matt Thaiss (trade with Cubs)
Who Left?
LHP Garrett Crochet (trade with Red Sox)
RHP Michael Soroka (Nationals)
3B Yoán Moncada (Angels)
Cleveland Guardians – Over 82.5 Wins
What a year for the Guardians in 2024, making the ALCS and really shocking the whole league. Did they outperform their projected win total last year? – Yes, with 92 wins. Why would their projected total wins drop from 92 to 82.5? I think the division is increasingly becoming more competitive, and analysts don’t believe that the Guardians are keeping up, even after looking at their acquisitions. They’re still a good team that will look to build upon the season they had last year. My favorite acquisition for them is the signing of Luis Ortiz and Paul Sewald, giving their pitching staff a much needed buffer. I like this team overall.
Exact Record Prediction: 89 – 73
Big Offseason Acquisitions
C Austin Hedges (re-signed; 1 year-deal)
RHP Shane Bieber (re-signed; 1-year deal)
1B Carlos Santana (1-year deal)
RHP Paul Sewald (1-year deal)
LHP John Means (1-year deal)
RHP Luis L. Ortiz (3-team trade with Pirates/Blue Jays)
RHP Jakob Junis (1-year deal)
RHP Slade Cecconi (trade with D-backs)
Who Left?
LHP Matthew Boyd (Cubs)
RHP Alex Cobb (Tigers)
2B Andrés Giménez (trade with Blue Jays)
RHP Nick Sandlin (3-team trade with Pirates/Blue Jays)
RHP Eli Morgan (trade with Cubs)
1B Josh Naylor (trade with D-backs)
OF Myles Straw (trade with Blue Jays)
Detroit Tigers – Over 83.5 Wins
What a finish to their 2024 season! No one saw that coming, especially winning their Wild Card round. They got hot at the right time. Could Tarik Skubal be this generation’s Randy Johnson? He’s got the stuff, obviously. Hoping for him to continue his dominance, and simultaneously hoping he doesn’t kill any birds. Seems like they have great team chemistry and, as an impoverished sports franchise, hungry to win. My favorite additions are Jack Flaherty and Alex Cobb – this should help their overall pitching staff dominate, rather than just Tarik carrying.
Exact Record Prediction: 87-75
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Jack Flaherty (2-year deal)
2B Gleyber Torres (1-year deal)
RHP Alex Cobb (1-year deal)
RHP Tommy Kahnle (1-year deal)
RHP John Brebbia (1-year deal)
LHP Andrew Chafin (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
RHP Alex Faedo (trade with Rays)
Kansas City Royals – Over 82.5 Wins
2024 was a shocking season for the Royals, as their win total ended at 86, which was more than 30 wins better than the 2023 campaign. A big reason for this is the emergence of Bobby Witt Jr. My favorite addition this season is Jonathan India to help support Witt Jr. Their rotation, even without Singer, is looking really good as well. The one critique I have of their lineup is that the outfield needs some help, and I don’t think Joey Wiemer is going to do it for them. Maybe, though? Overall, I’m confident they’ll hit this win total.
Exact Record Prediction: 86 – 76
Big Offseason Acquisitions
2B Jonathan India (trade with Reds)
RHP Carlos Estévez (2-year deal)
RHP Michael Lorenzen (re-signed; 1-year deal)
OF Joey Wiemer (trade with Reds)
Who Left?
RHP Brady Singer (trade with Reds)
2B Adam Frazier (Pirates)
OF Tommy Pham (Pirates)
INF Paul DeJong (Nationals)
1B Yuli Gurriel (Padres)
Minnesota Twins – Over 83.5 Wins
The twins are a solid team, no question. They are so pretty much every year, but they just can’t seem to get over that hump towards becoming a great team. The Twins have a good starting rotation and many refer to their bullpen as the best in baseball. Their hitting underperforming in 2024 is the issue that needs to be solved to get over the 84 win total. Will Royce Lewis be able to play this year? Looks like he’s starting the year on the IL once again. Another factor playing into the wins total is stolen base attempts; in 2024 they were dead last in the category, but have a relatively faster lineup this year with Max Kepler and Carlos Santana out the door. I’d expect to see better performances from their ace, Pablo Lopez, this year as well to bring them closer to 84 wins.
Exact Record Prediction: 85 – 78
Big Offseason Acquisitions
OF Harrison Bader (1-year deal)
1B Ty France (1-year deal)
LHP Danny Coulombe (1-year deal)
Who Left?
INF Kyle Farmer (Rockies)
OF Max Kepler (Phillies)
1B Carlos Santana (Guardians)
LHP Caleb Thielbar (Cubs)
LHP Jovani Morán (trade with Red Sox)
AL WEST
Houston Astros – Under 86.5 Wins
Bold to say, but I think Houston’s time has come and gone. In 2025, we’ll see some more regression, adding to what we saw last year. They’re just getting old, that’s it. Yes, they’re bringing in talent to replace Kyle Tucker and Bregman, but when I look at their lineup, I’m just not impressed anymore. My favorite addition is Christian Walker to help replace Tucker/Bregman. This division is going to be interesting this season, and I predict the Astros do not win it.
Exact Record Prediction: 81-81
Big Offseason Acquisitions
1B Christian Walker (3-year deal)
3B Isaac Paredes (trade with Cubs)
RHP Hayden Wesneski (trade with Cubs)
OF Ben Gamel (re-signed; 1-year deal)
2B Brendan Rodgers (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
OF Kyle Tucker (trade with Cubs)
3B Alex Bregman (Red Sox)
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (Angels)
RHP Justin Verlander (Giants)
RHP Ryan Pressly (trade with Cubs)
LHP Caleb Ferguson (Pirates)
OF Jason Heyward (Padres)
RHP Kendall Graveman (D-backs)
Texas Rangers – Over 85.5 Wins
78 wins last season was a huge disappointment after watching them win the World Series in 2023. So what went wrong last year that hopefully will change this year? The pitching staff was the issue. My favorite acquisition is Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Martin, to help produce for what was a struggling pitching rotation last season. We’re all praying that Jacob DeGrom stays healthy this year, as he’s on the verge of becoming a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher but just needs to stay healthy. Jake Burger is another good addition, with the Marlins doing classic Marlins things by trading away their best players. With the weakening of the AL West division, I believe the Rangers make a comeback this year and hit their over for wins. They have a very high ceiling if things go right for them.
Exact Record Prediction: 87 – 75
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (re-signed; 3-year deal)
DH Joc Pederson (2-year deal)
1B/3B Jake Burger (trade with Marlins)
C Kyle Higashioka (2-year deal)
RHP Chris Martin (1-year deal)
RHP Jacob Webb (1-year deal)
LHP Hoby Milner (1-year deal)
RHP Shawn Armstrong (1-year deal)
RHP Luke Jackson (1-year deal)
LHP Robert Garcia (trade with Nationals)
RHP Luis Curvelo (1-year deal)
OF Kevin Pillar (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
1B Nathaniel Lowe (trade with Nationals)
C Carson Kelly (Cubs)
RHP Grant Anderson (trade with Brewers)
RHP José Leclerc (Athletics)
RHP Kirby Yates (Dodgers)
RHP Max Scherzer (Blue Jays)
LHP Andrew Heaney (Pirates)
LHP Andrew Chafin (Tigers)
RHP José Ureña (Mets)
Seattle Mariners – Over 84.5 Wins
85 wins in 2024, and the team severely underperformed offensively. That’s especially looking at you, Julio Rodriguez. Not you, Cal Raleigh. And what happened to Mitch Haniger? This guy had 39 home runs in 2021, but in 2024 had only 12 with over 120 strikeouts to boot! Their offensive struggles were hidden by their starting pitching staff, but how much pressure can you put on that group year after year? They didn’t bolster this team much at all in the offseason, so I wouldn’t say I have a favorite acquisition. Similarly to the Astros, the weakening of this division overall will allow the Mariners to win more than if they played in another division. I predict the Mariners do a bit better and secure their over. Per usual, they’ll need to rely on their starting pitching immensely to do so.
Exact Record Prediction: 88 – 74
Big Offseason Acquisitions
INF Donovan Solano (1-year deal)
INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni (trade with Cubs)
2B Jorge Polanco (re-signed; 1-year deal)
Who Left?
RHP Yimi García (Blue Jays)
3B Josh Rojas (White Sox)
3B Luis Urías (Athletics)
1B Justin Turner (Cubs)
Los Angeles Angels – Under 72.5 Wins
This franchise is due for some sunny days ahead. The amount of talent and money that this organization has effectively wasted in the last 10 years is crazy to think about (Ohtani, Trout, etc.). Don’t forget, they still have Anthony Rendon for a couple more years – all will be saved when he comes back, right? The amount of wasteful spending by this organization in relatively recent memory has been enough to build an entire article around.
Moving on from that, I did like the addition of Yusei Kikuchi and Kenley Jansen, hopefully improving upon their dismal pitching staff from 2024. Although this helps a bit, I just don’t see their lineup being able to compete offensively this year, unless Trout carries, so I’m taking the under.
Exact Record Prediction: 71 – 91
Big Offseason Acquisitions
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (3-year deal)
OF Jorge Soler (trade with Braves)
RHP Kenley Jansen (1-year deal)
C Travis d’Arnaud (2-year deal)
RHP Kyle Hendricks (1-year deal)
3B Yoán Moncada (1-year deal)
INF Kevin Newman (1-year deal)
3B J.D. Davis (MiLB deal)
SS Tim Anderson (MiLB deal)
Who Left?
LHP Patrick Sandoval (Red Sox)
RHP Griffin Canning (trade with Braves)
C Matt Thaiss (trade with Cubs; later traded to White Sox)
INF Eric Wagaman (Marlins)
LHP Matt Moore (Red Sox)
OF Kevin Pillar (Rangers)
Sacramento Athletics – Over 71.5
The Athletics aren’t done yet after leaving Oakland. They made a series of offseason moves and trades that bolster the team overall, with an emphasis on pitching. I liked the additions of Jeffrey Springs and Luis Severino. Considering the breakout season from Brent Rooker and the addition of young talent such as Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday to continue improving their hitting last season, I see this as pretty much a lock for the over. Even the general shape of the franchise as a result of the move to Sacramento won’t stop that. This could be a shocking 2025 year for the Athletics, and you may find them in the race for the AL West pennant.
Exact Record Prediction: 82-80
Big Offseason Acquisitions
RHP Luis Severino (2-year deal)
LHP Jeffrey Springs (trade with Rays)
3B Gio Urshela (1-year deal)
RHP José Leclerc (1-year deal)
3B Luis Urías (1-year deal)
LHP T.J. McFarland (re-signed; 1-year deal)
Who Left?
LHP Scott Alexander (Rockies)
RHP Ross Stripling (Royals)
