The automatic bids began to trickle in slowly but surely throughout Sunday afternoon, with Arch Madness setting the tone for what is to come later this month by providing the setting for a wild first weekend of championship basketball.
On one hand, there is an argument to be made that the small and mid-major conferences are better off providing a significant advantage to its top teams from the regular season, as only one school will typically represent the majority of leagues in the NCAA Tournament. However, while the “flying V” bracket structure may become more prevalent in the coming years, chaos ensuing before the Big Dance even begins is part of what makes the month of March so captivating.
With all due respect to teams like Belmont, there isn’t even overwhelming evidence that mid-major teams that dominated a regular season perform better in the Tournament.
Indeed, only one team on Sunday that clinched an NCAA Tournament berth was the top seed in its conference tournament. We’ll dive in further to explore the auto-bids from the Missouri Valley, Big South, Atlantic Sun and Summit League.
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Missouri Valley
Automatic Bid: Northern Iowa
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
It might not seem like it’s been this long, but the Panthers last made the Big Dance in 2016. This may be surprising to some, and that’s not a coincidence. Northern Iowa’s program is characterized by a level of continuity that is uncommon in college basketball these days. Head coach Ben Jacobson has been with the program since 2006, placing him just outside the top 10 in terms of active coaching tenures at a single school. Jacobson’s team has stuck together, too – it brought back more players from last season than all but two other programs (Navy and Purdue).
What this has molded is a cohesive unit that shares the ball well and is a top 25 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency. Guard Trey Campbell, who leads the team in points, assists and steals per game, is a rare four-year player at the same program. The four games in four days that the Panthers had to win to punch their ticket to the Tournament may suggest that this team is already a Cinderella of sorts, but it’s really a consequence of injuries that plagued the team throughout the regular season.
There is a quiet confidence about this group, and for good reason. The Missouri Valley Conference was one of the stronger mid-major leagues this season and Northern Iowa should have an excellent chance to prove that to the country next week.
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Big South
Automatic Bid: High Point
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
For the second straight season, the Panthers rode an exceptional regular season into the Big Dance, this year hitting the 30-win mark for the first time in school history. In fact, since the 2023-2024 season, only three other Division I teams have amassed more victories than High Point. Flynn Clayman took over where former head man Alan Huss left off with the program, though Clayman has brought in a number of new faces to continue the success. Most of the production for this year’s team was elsewhere during High Point’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament last season.
Nevertheless, the Panthers will once again be one of the popular choices to knock off at least one higher seed in the Tournament. Similarly potent offensively and the country’s most opportunistic defense (forcing a national best 10.9 steals per contest), there isn’t a moment where High Point isn’t looking to put the ball in the cup. Given the depth and high major talent that Clayman brought in through the portal, the Panthers look to be a handful for anyone that matches up against them.
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Atlantic Sun
Automatic Bid: Queens
Projected Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
Four years ago, Queens University in Charlotte wasn’t playing Division I basketball. On Sunday afternoon, the Royals qualified for their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Head coach Grant Leonard has guided the team during all four years at the premier collegiate level and encourages his group to play a free flowing, entertaining style of basketball that has the Royals ranked in the top 30 in points per game as well as both three pointers made and attempted per game.
Chances seem good that Queens will continue forward with the approach that got it to this point, and if the ball is going down then this can be a dangerous group. But the offensive potency isn’t met with the same vigor on the defensive side, as the Royals are one of the worst defenses in the country from a metrics perspective and struggle defending the interior. Additionally, the team struggled to close out the A-Sun Championship Game primarily thanks to a press break that leaves something to be desired.
There is a chance that the Royals end up in Dayton for a play-in contest, and if that’s the case then they have a shot at winning an NCAA Tournament game. But don’t get too high on this debutant making an extended appearance in the Big Dance, and there appear to be a few too many glaring weaknesses to support that.
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Summit
Automatic Bid: North Dakota State
Projected Seed: 14 or 15
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Bison quietly went about topping the Summit League during the regular season, then took care of business rather handily in the conference tournament, securing a return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2019. On the surface things look pretty impressive – 27 victories, only two losses since December 22 of last year and a quartet of guards that can both score and distribute the basketball.
However, it’s hard to find a ton of truly impressive victories amongst all of them that the Bison have racked up. Perhaps more importantly, the slower tempo is somewhat surprising from a team that is guard-centric and will look to play significant minutes with a smaller lineup. While the Bison are fairly disciplined in terms of shot selection and don’t have any glaring weaknesses, there is a good chance they are matched up with a high seed with plenty of length and athleticism to spare.
The ingredients of an upset often lie within the matchups, and it feels like there is a high probability that North Dakota State won’t fare well in that regard.
