Big things were expected from Week 4 and for the most part, it did not disappoint.
Thanks largely to the number of Top 25 matchups that existed across the country last weekend, it was a banner week for the still young 2026-2027 season in terms of top-level movement. Eight teams from the Top 25 suffered losses last weekend, and half of them dropped from the rankings entirely heading into Week 5.
It is interesting to view a week from such a lens, given the backdrop created by this week’s latest knee-jerk reaction in college football: outcry about a proposed 24-team tournament.
The money that stands to be made from something like that is the easy part to understand. How it truly affects the game, and more specifically the regular season’s perceived importance, is the wildly more difficult impact to quantify.
The truth is, the importance of college football’s regular season is rooted in what the fans decide to make of it. We’re already a far cry from the structure that existed in college football less than 20 years ago, yet the regular season still retains much, if not all, of the relevance that it did when the BCS format ran the show.
College football certainly has landmines to navigate moving forward, but an expanded Playoff is far from the most dangerous of them.
While this coming weekend doesn’t exhibit quite the “on paper” juice of last weekend, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. It still looks pretty attractive to me.
Let’s take a look at the top matchups on the Week 5 slate.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (Friday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
This game may go down as the most underrated matchup in FBS history. It is the first time on record that two P4 programs with a 4-0 record will face off and neither one of them will be ranked in the Top 25. Granted, both teams came into the season with little fanfare and the schedules haven’t provided much of an opportunity to invite people onto the bandwagon. Despite an offense that is averaging over 520 yards per game, Pittsburgh’s most impressive win is a victory over UCF in which the Panthers failed to score two touchdowns. Notable results were similarly difficult to come by for Virginia Tech, with a single-digit victory over Maryland (a team that just got smacked College Park by UCLA) serving as its most impressive showing thus far. On second thought, underrated may be the wrong descriptor to pin to this one.
One thing that is for sure is that there will be no love lost between the head coaches. The rivalry between the two has been well documented over the years, but James Franklin does hold a 3-1 advantage head-to-head against Pat Narduzzi. All four of those matchups occurred when Franklin was still at Penn State, however, and arguably had more talent at his disposal. In this one, the talent gap feels negligible and it will be, as Narduzzi accurately assessed, a chess match. While overthinking has cost Narduzzi in the past (particularly against Franklin), I do think he can come into this one confident that his players can succeed with a straightforward gameplan. The biggest question for the Panthers will be, “which Mason Heintschel will show up?” The sophomore has been lights out against non-P4 competition this year and underwhelming against the P4 ranks. I think that the Panthers will certainly keep things close, but the Virginia Tech offense has been more consistent so far this season and in what appears to be a tossup, I’ll side with what feels more stable.
My Pick: 21-20 Virginia Tech (does not cover -2.5 spread)
#7 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
As predicted, the part of the country unaware of the hidden gem down in Starksville, Mississippi was shown the light last Saturday evening. Kamario Taylor put on a show against the Missouri defense, tossing three touchdown passes to go along with 367 yards of total offense in a “welcome back to the big stage” moment for the Bulldogs collectively. While Jeff Lebby’s team will again benefit from the familiar sound of cowbells this weekend, the stakes ramp up significantly as the Alabama Crimson Tide come to town. Unlike the Tigers, the Crimson Tide have won plenty of Top 25 matchups over the past few years and boast an offense that isn’t wildly different from Mississippi State’s in terms of potency.
While Taylor has his breakout moment last Saturday, Keelon Russell is still seeking his despite starting off the season solidly. The redshirt freshman has been efficient and accurate for the Crimson Tide but has yet to be called upon to will his team to a victory. That has been by design, but nevertheless it feels like that comes to an end this Satuday. Mississippi State isn’t going to try to completely stop Russell – defense is optional for the Bulldogs, and they rank at the bottom in the SEC in terms of stopping the pass. But what Lebby’s team can do anyway is keep the pressure on an Alabama team that hasn’t truly felt it for four quarters this season. When Russell needs to make a play with the stands ringing, it will be interesting to see how the relatively young signal-caller responds. The Bulldogs are happy to engage in a track meet, and Alabama is capable of playing that way, too. For that reason, a shootout seems highly likely. Which team ends up having the ball last may be the one that escapes Week 5 with an unbeaten record still intact.
My Pick: 44-41 Mississippi State (covers +6.5 spread)
#5 Ohio State at #14 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
Outside of the Michigan faithful, college football fans across the country rejoiced thanks to the Hawkeyes last weekend, as they seemingly played the role of karma for the Wolverines, tossing a last second touchdown pass to beat the hosts in Ann Arbor in thrilling fashion. It didn’t feel like Iowa had done enough to beat the Wolverines, but no one is more familiar than Michigan this season with the reality that sometimes the game just doesn’t seem fair. Kirk Ferentz’s team will look to keep the good vibes going at home against the Buckeyes this weekend, seeking to become the first Iowa team ever to beat both Ohio State and Michigan in the same season. While Ohio State looks like one of the best teams in the country, the gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule remaining makes this a spot where Ryan Day’s team can ill afford a letdown.
While Kinnick Stadium has proven to be a difficult place for Ohio State to win (3-2 there since the turn of the century), this does not appear to be an excellent matchup for the Hawkeyes. Yes, the Buckeyes gave up some yards (and points) in their first Big Ten contest, but the Illini are no slouch in the run game and are better equipped at quarterback than Iowa to really soften up an opposing defense. Against Iowa, the Buckeyes should be able to keep more personnel in the box to stifle the Hawkeyes’ true and singular strength, its run game. Defensively, Phil Parker routinely coordinates one of the best units in the country but Michigan proved last weekend it is possible to utilize a star wideout to gash Iowa through the air. As long as the Buckeyes capitalize on chances in the redzone (something the Wolverines didn’t do well last weekend), they should come away from Iowa City with a victory.
My Pick: 30-16 Ohio State (does not cover -14.5 spread)
#8 Florida at #25 Missouri (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
The beast has officially awoken. Florida curiously came in as a slight favorite for its game against then No. 4 ranked Mississippi last Saturday, but proved the wise guys in Vegas right and then some, torching the Rebels on the ground with over 300 yards rushing. The game was never really in doubt for Jon Sumrall’s team and seems to have solidified the hunch some had that Florida would have a say in deciding the SEC title race this season. The script very much flips heading into Week 5, as the Gators are now the team coming off a statement victory and must protect their jump in the rankings by handling another Top 25 team on the road.
I had questions about the Mississippi defense as a whole before last weekend, but those questions don’t exist to the same degree about Missouri. While the Tigers don’t look to be as dominant on defense as they have been in previous years, they’re a far cry from having the worst run defense in the SEC. That said, the Gators will need to return to a more balanced approach offensively to have as much success this weekend as they did in The Swamp a week ago. The personnel is there to achieve that, as Aaron Philo was in the shadows last Saturday only because the Rebels had no answer for Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark on the ground. Missouri should do a better job at limiting the ground game, but the Tigers are still facing the possibility of having to engage in another high scoring affair to win this week. We saw how that turned out last weekend against Mississippi State, and I am not convinced that Florida won’t take what they saw in Starkville last weekend and apply it to their own gameplan. This feels far less like a potential hangover spot for the Gators than it did for their opponent last week.
My Pick: 33-21 Florida (covers -5.5 spread)
#4 Miami (FL) at Clemson (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
In many ways, the Tigers (and more particularly, Dabo Swinney) are hanging on for dear life in terms of the prospect of 2026 being a successful season in Clemson. The defense hasn’t been great, the offense has been worse, and the only recent explanation that Swinney has been willing to offer in terms of the pressure that this may be causing is that winning games doesn’t define him. In other words, you’re buying the dip if you’re still taking Swinney’s 2023 advice to acquire stock in the program. Despite Swinney’s claim otherwise, in college football winning games does define you, and for struggling programs it has the ability to cure just about everything. Saturday evening is an opportunity for the Tigers to inject the cure when the country’s most potent offense visits.
Curiously, despite the offensive struggles it hasn’t been all doom and gloom on that side of the ball for the Tigers. Gideon Davidson is positioning himself as one of the better running backs in the country and the Clemson run game has improved in each of its four games this season. The Miami defense is the best in the country at stopping the run this season, however, so it’ll take more than Davidson & Co. to move the football against the Hurricanes. As questionable as the playcalling has been, the Tigers have talent on the outside and other teams have shown this season that Miami can be beat through the air. It might not be Clemson’s identity this season, but whether that has truly been established yet is up for debate anyway. The Tigers can hang around in this game if they throw caution to the wind and take a stab at utilizing their best offensive talent in ways that have already hurt the Hurricanes in 2026. Based on the comments from their head coach, giving things up to a higher power feels like something they would be willing to do.
My Pick: 37-24 Miami (FL) (does not cover -16.5 spread)
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Penn State at Northwestern (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
The Wildcats nearly pulled off the upset of the season last Friday on the road in Bloomington but will get another chance to raise eyebrows while simultaneously christening their new stadium under the lights. Penn State blew what appeared to be another hard-fought victory last weekend, and trying to pick up the pieces in Evanston won’t be as straightforward as you’d normally expect.
Virginia at Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN2)
The optics of this matchup make it very difficult not to frame it as a job-saving opportunity for Mike Norvell. The Cavaliers are a tough football team, but the Seminoles can exact revenge for a loss last season that proved to be the start of Florida State’s unraveling in 2025. I think Norvell will have his group ready to go for this one.
#24 Kentucky at South Carolina (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
Will Stein called his shot during the preseason and, with the exception of a poor fourth quarter against Alabama, has mostly been right about his ability to win at Kentucky. The Wildcats are back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2023, but have a tough assignment to remain within it following Week 5. Kentucky will need to find a way to stop one of the more potent offenses in the SEC, led by LaNorris Sellers and a rushing attack that leads the conference (262 YPG).
#10 BYU at TCU (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment this season, surprisingly having trouble moving the football consistently against capable competition. TCU has, however, kept things respectable on the scoreboard thanks to a strong defense and will hope to catch the Cougars sleeping this weekend.
#12 Texas Tech at Colorado (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – FOX)
The Buffaloes are making a change at the quarterback position for this one, opting to start Isaac Wilson following lackluster production from Julian Lewis through the first quarter of the season. The Red Raiders aren’t nearly the dominant force on defense that they were in 2025 and preparing for a new face at quarterback on short notice is always tough, so this one could end up closer than people think.
