The turn of the page to the second half of the season brought with it a ton of surprises, to once again remind us that nothing is certain at the collegiate level of football.
Just when we started to give Miami and Texas Tech their flowers, they both go and lose. Mississippi and LSU had difficult games last weekend, but they were also amongst the nearly half of Top 10 teams that went down. What looked like the strongest Group of Five program in the country did, too.
Somewhat surprisingly, the chaos that ensued spared us in the head-to-head prediction game, at least straight up. Sam went a perfect 5-0 while I managed a 4-1 record picking the winners. However, against the spread it was a different story, particularly for me.
The current records after Week 8:
K. Becks – 26-14 SU, 14-24-2 ATS
Guests – 28-12 SU, 19-19-2 ATS
It’s not too early to suggest that my chances of winning this year are on life support. I think I saw the champagne being wheeled up the tunnel on my way over. My buddy Colin (who will be referred to as ‘CMAD’ from this point forward) will try to keep things going for the guests this week, while I may need to dust off the old “K. Becks’s Wishful Thinking Picks” box after a long hibernation.
Let’s take a look at the top games to watch in Week 9.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#19 South Florida at Memphis (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN2)
This contest was setting up to be an easy sell for the Group of Five’s Game of the Year – then UAB happened. The Blazers, more than 20-point underdogs to Memphis last weekend and led by a 39-year old interim making his head coaching debut, shocked the Tigers by winning their first American Conference game this season. Adding to the shock is how it was accomplished. UAB had rushed for more than 103 yards just once this season (against FCS Alabama State) and was going up against the American’s toughest run defense. Deploying a run-heavy attack, the Blazers rushed for 219 yards on 41 carries and played keepaway from a Memphis offense that was without its starting quarterback for the majority of the second half. Not surprisingly, the AP poll votes dried up entirely for the Tigers and it would take a win in this game and some help to propel them back into the Playoff conversation.
All that being said, Memphis can maintain its pulse if a couple of things go its way this week. For one, the Tigers will need to hope that starting quarterback Brendon Lewis is good to go. At the time of writing, he is listed as day-to-day with a lower body injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. While AJ Hill stepped in valiantly for his first action of the season, South Florida will smell blood in the water if he has to lead the Tigers this week. On the other side of the ball, Memphis needs to find a way to get back to its stifling ways against the run. The Bulls are even more dangerous than their 215 yards per game rushing would suggest because their leading rusher can also throw the ball. Byrum Brown is showing the country what he can do when he stays healthy and is one of the most difficult players in the country to slow down. Memphis’s first six games would suggest it has the personnel to do it, but a lot of unforeseen questions arose following last week’s game. I contemplated rolling with the Tigers with a suspicion that the American Conference could get funky, but there’s just too much unknown about where that team is at both physically and mentally to pick against the Bulls.
My Pick: 28-20 South Florida (covers -6 spread)
CMAD’s Take: Boy, what a letdown for the blue boys of Memphis last week. On the bright side, they can still control their own destiny for the quest to the CFP. It all starts with USF. The Bulls have that QB that runs around and can be exciting. The Tigers will have to play the role of the rodeo clown and wrangle that Bull up. Also, do Bulls make sense for a school that’s in Tampa Bay, Florida? They should be called something that matches the area better like the Beach Showers or the Fighting Cuban Sandwiches. Anyways, Brady Kluse is going to score 2 TDs and have 124 receiving yards. He has good genes.
Memphis 34, USF 27
#8 Mississippi at #13 Oklahoma (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Rebels’ loss to Georgia last Saturday sets up an interesting battle in Norman between two one-loss teams that it feels like both need to win in order to stay relevant in the Playoff conversation. The road actually looks less treacherous for Lane Kiffin’s squad after this game, with no more currently ranked opponents left on the schedule. However, given Kiffin’s history of dropping games he should win, that shouldn’t make Rebels fans feel overly safe. Conversely, Oklahoma has nothing but currently ranked opponents left on the slate. A war of strengths should ensue, with Mississippi boasting one of the SEC’s most potent offenses and Oklahoma entering this game as the conference’s best defense by a country mile, at least on paper.
I was impressed with the Rebels last weekend, with Kiffin’s squad nearly going into Athens and handing Georgia a loss. In my opinion, Kirby Smart has been putting together a masterclass in coaching this season and the Bulldogs are still in the thick of the SEC title race primarily because of him. I don’t know that I would say the same about Brent Venables, and in fact, the Sooners appear to go as John Mateer goes this season for the most part. I’m a big fan of Mateer’s, but question whether the Superman cape will work if the Rebels are able to turn this one into a track meet. So far, Oklahoma has played mostly offenses with deficiencies in at least one area, and there aren’t many weak spots in Mississippi’s attack. The Rebels have been unable to separate themselves in contests where the run game isn’t humming, which is a good sign for Oklahoma, which has proven to be able to contain the run. However, the Rebels are more balanced offensively than teams like Michigan and Auburn and I don’t see Kiffin trying to get too cute in a must-win game. The Sooners will have opportunities to get back into the Playoff conversation thanks to their remaining schedule, but will be on the ropes following a loss here.
My Pick: 24-17 Mississippi (covers +5.5 spread)
CMAD’s Take: Battle of the big Os. This game reminds me of a recently divorced woman who stuck with her marriage too long, and wishes she were a Miss-Sooner. I have been respecting Lane Kiffin’s trolling on Twitter lately, so I like the momentum Ole Miss has going. Buddy boy Mateer will be trying his best to will the Sooners to victory. For this game, I like Oklahoma. Mainly because the landshark for Ole Miss sucks and I miss Colonel Reb.
Oklahoma 33, Ole Miss 23
#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The spotlight wasn’t too bright for the Commodores last weekend, with Clark Lea’s team notching a signature win over a Top 10 squad while Diego Pavia enjoyed some moments that might help him to secure a trip to New York later this year (which was certainly not lost on him, if a particular touchdown celebration was any indication). It’s a weekly grind, however, and Vanderbilt welcomes another Top 15 team to Nashville this weekend. Similarly, it’s a team with a stout defense but won’t have to deal with the absence of its leader like LSU did. The Missouri offense has also shown much more this season than LSU, so I expect this to be an even tougher test for Vanderbilt.
Brian Kelly was correct when he mentioned that a key to stopping Vanderbilt would be limiting Diego Pavia’s running ability, but the Tigers were unable to execute the gameplan. Missouri will try to do the same thing, but has already shown a couple of times this season that it can force dual threat quarterbacks into doing one or the other. While I won’t predict that Pavia will be forced into mistakes like he was against Alabama, I do think that this week’s Tigers can force him into being more one-dimensional. If that happens, it will then be up to the Vanderbilt defense to slow down a Missouri offense that has the SEC’s most potent rushing attack, with Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts as good a 1-2 punch at running back as any in the country. No one in the conference is better than the Tigers at holding onto the football, and Eli Drinkwitz’s team is also No. 4 nationally in that category (over 34 minutes average TOPPG). You know it’s a crazy time in college football when the name of the game is playing keepaway from Vanderbilt’s offense, and that’s what Missouri can do to win this game.
My Pick: 31-28 Missouri (covers +2.5 spread)
CMAD’s Take: Battle of the useless SEC schools who have a form of gold. That Pavia fella is a cocky little thing. Like the throwing chairs off of rooftop bars on Broadway type. Vandy’s stadium has been under construction for 845 years. So, curious to see the crowd. Missouri is called the Show Me State. They’ll have to Show Me that they’re legit. And I think they will. Naturally, I think everyone will be high on Vandy after last week, but hangovers in Nashville are very common. Tigers get it done.
Missouri 28, Vandy 24
#11 BYU at Iowa State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – FOX)
For the second straight season, Kalani Sitake has guided the Cougars to a 7-0 start. BYU is the only remaining undefeated team from a Power 4 conference that sits outside the AP poll’s Top 10, a testament to the quiet nature with which the Cougars have once again climbed into serious Playoff contention while almost nobody notices. What it is a not a testament to is how good of a job Sitake has done with the program. BYU wasn’t supposed to be relevant this season after losing Jake Retzlaff in July, forcing the team to roll with an unknown true freshman at quarterback named Bear Bachmeier. Sitake and offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick have responded beautifully, molding the offense into one that is more run-oriented than last season and plays within Bachmeier’s strengths and experience level. I thought that Iowa State would be the team ranked somewhere around No. 11 heading into this one, but that’s been the story of the Big 12 as a whole this season.
It has been an October to forget for Matt Campbell’s squad, which was cruising along at 5-0 and No. 14 in the country before its season got blown up by consecutive losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. Both games were characterized by penalties and a number of defensive breakdowns, two things that Campbell’s teams typically don’t do. The Cyclones have had a week off to reset and prepare, which I think will help them a lot in this one. BYU has been impressive on both sides of the ball this season, but Utah did manage to slow down BYU’s offense enough that the game was within reach. Iowa State has struggled at times offensively this season, but I know Rocco Becht has the capability to take over games and the gap in experience level between the two quarterbacks in this one is immense. I thought last weekend was the one where Bear Bachmeier would unravel, and while it didn’t happen I am pretty confident it’s coming. I’ll take the more experienced quarterback, at home, following a bye week for the hosts and an emotional victory the week prior for the visitors.
My Pick: 28-27 Iowa State (does not cover -2.5 spread)
CMAD’s Take: BYU is usually what Shakespeare says after he gets stung. What a weird school where weird things happen. Cosmo kinda sucks. He acts like an athletic, bad boy, daredevil, but how badass are you with that school’s honor code? Can’t spell Mormon without Moron. Iowa State is one of the most exciting, boring teams. They’re somehow always both and I can’t explain why. But they’ll lose to the Morons. How will the BYU fans celebrate? A brisk Fresca and some side hugs.
BYU 30, Iowa State 14
#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
This rivalry has produced some wild results over the years, including the highest scoring FBS game in history (2018) as well as last year’s second half collapse by the Tigers that saw the Aggies erase a 10-point lead midway through the third quarter and go on to win by 15 points. The latest result, along with LSU’s defeat at the hands of Vanderbilt last weekend, will have more than just Brian Kelly out for blood on the side of the Tigers. Mike Elko’s team has done a great job this season, but victories never come easily at Death Valley and we’re at the point in the season where an undefeated record and Top 5 ranking result in a massive target on your back.
In a lot of ways, the Aggies play like Mississippi, a team that already beat the Tigers at home this season. Balanced offensively and with a dual threat quarterback that can extend plays, Texas A&M will be difficult to stop offensively if LSU is again without Whit Weeks, one of their best disrupters in the opposing backfield. Weeks is listed as questionable for the game and his absence last weekend was apparent against Vanderbilt. On the other side, Texas A&M is aggressive in trying to get to the quarterback (25 sacks on the season), and the Tigers will be without starting left tackle Tyree Adams. Though Adams was also out for the majority of last weekend’s game, Vanderbilt doesn’t get home defensively as much as the Aggies. All of this appears to be favoring Texas A&M, but I think Kelly feels the heat right now. And for as good as the Aggies have been this season, things have been much closer on the road. In what I would consider a true upset, I like an offensively challenged, somewhat banged up LSU squad to rally and use the home crowd to its advantage, sending yet another Top 5 team home disappointed in what has been a wacky October for top ranked squads.
My Pick: 27-24 LSU (covers +2.5 spread)
CMAD’s Take: I actually love the Texas A&M yell leaders. They are beautiful, strong men who lead community building, school spirited chants and body motions. They dress like milk men and usually have great triceps. LSU fans just tell us to “suck that tiger dick, bitch.” Have some class like the yell leaders, please. I wonder how much longer of a leash Brian Kelly has? It’s fun to think about where his next job will be and which accent he’ll try to mimic next. I wish there was an FBS team in Jamaica. Or Saskatoon. I kinda hope he ends up at Boston College so I can hear his Boston accent. Aggies win.
Texas A&M 36, LSU 35
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#23 Illinois at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – Big Ten Network)
Both of these teams are still being slept on by a lot of people, but we’re at the point in the season where if you don’t believe, nothing said about either squad is going to convince you otherwise. The Ilini can still make a serious run at a Playoff berth if they run the table, but beating the Huskies at home is a difficult task and Demond Williams is poised for a “get right” game after last week’s disappointing, three interception outing.
Baylor at #21 Cincinnati (Saturday, 4 PM ET – ESPN2)
The Bearcats are finally getting some attention from the national media, debuting at No. 21 in the AP poll heading into Week 9. Baylor is not an easy opponent, however, and will be the most dangerous offense that Cincinnati has faced thus far. The Bears have struggled against mobile quarterbacks already this season, though, and the Bearcats have one of the Big 12’s best in Brendan Sorsby.
#22 Texas at Mississippi State (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
One week removed from its victory over Oklahoma and the Longhorns were back to looking like a team that didn’t know what it wanted to do offensively. It took overtime to beat a Kentucky squad that, while pesky, doesn’t have nearly the offensive firepower that the Bulldogs boast. Texas should win this game, but as others have learned this season, leaving Starkvegas with a victory is tough.
#17 Tennessee at Kentucky (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET – SEC Network)
Speaking of that pesky Kentucky squad, it welcomes the Volunteers to Kroger Field on Saturday night for yet another crack at upsetting an SEC title contender. Tennessee now has its back against the wall in that regard, and may be too much offensively for the Wildcats, but Mark Stoops always gets full effort from his team and Alabama showed last week that the Volunteers can be being slowed down.
Houston at #24 Arizona State (Saturday, 8 PM ET – ESPN2)
The return of Sam Leavitt did so much for the Sun Devils last week, both offensively and for the team’s morale as a whole. I said last week that Kenny Dillingham seems to do his best work when the country isn’t watching, and generally speaking he proved me right last Saturday (most eyeballs came around in the fourth quarter). There is no opportunity to take the foot off the gas pedal, however, as Houston is having a nice season itself and is currently tied with Arizona State at 3-1 in Big 12 play.
