It really has been a great college football season thus far.
For the second time, we hyped up a slate of games as being “can’t miss”, and for all intents and purposes Week 5 was even bigger than the opening weekend. Week 1’s results were going to be difficult to top, but I think Week 5 actually accomplished that feat.
All five of the top games to watch last weekend were decided by one possession. Two of them went into overtime. Three Top 5 teams were defeated.
And in the head-to-head prediction game, things ended as they started.
The current records after Week 5:
K. Becks – 14-10 SU, 9-13-2 ATS
Guests – 16-8 SU, 9-13-2 ATS
We’re still waiting for the feedback related to the fan request that someone “needs to pour through the ancient texts and tabulate the head-to-head historical record against ‘Dad’”.
This week, my buddy Matt joins to make picks on his birthday week.
Hype has to be manufactured by the Sickos for Week 6. We’ll dive into the top games to watch.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#14 Iowa State at Cincinnati (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN2)
The Cyclones took care of business in an impressive way last weekend, easily dispatching an Arizona team that I thought had the ability to give Iowa State trouble. Instead, it was the Cyclones that served up trouble, primarily in the form of an offensive line push that the Wildcats simply did not have an answer for when defending in the redzone. Matt Campbell’s squad has shown the ability to mix things up offensively and has been solid defensively, laying the groundwork for a run at the Big 12 crown. What has been accomplished already, though, is only the beginning of the test. The Cyclones are entering the meat of their schedule, starting with their first true road test of the season against a P4 opponent in Cincinnati.
Scott Satterfield’s group has quietly emerged as one of the more potent offenses in the Big 12, trailing only the expected suspects Texas Tech and Baylor in total offensive yards per game (479.5). If you don’t know it already, remember the name Brendan Sorsby. The junior quarterback is largely responsible for the offensive comeuppance from the Bearcats, leading the team in both passing and rushing yards this season. His physical style and mobility can give the disciplined Iowa State defense fits in a way that fellow dual threats Mark Gronowski and Avery Johnson were unable. The Cyclones can certainly win this game and will hold the upper hand if Cincinnati’s run defense plays like Arizona’s did last week. Betting against Rocco Becht is always going to be risky, but the Bearcats have played unafraid this season and seemingly have nothing to lose. In a tight one, I like Sorsby to do just enough to give Cincinnati a marquee victory that puts the Bearcats in a surprise position to fight for the Big 12 title as well.
My Pick: 31-28 Cincinnati (covers -1.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 24
Iowa State has shown flashes of being able to pull away, but Cincinnati at home will make it tough. I expect a late push by the Bearcats, but the Cyclones escape with a one-possession win.
#16 Vanderbilt at #10 Alabama (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
The job that Clark Lea has done at Vanderbilt has been nothing short of spectacular, turning what has historically been the laughingstock of the SEC into a Top 15 offensive power that is heading into the rematch of one of last season’s biggest upsets with a legitimate chance to win on the road. Meanwhile, Alabama has worked its way back into the good graces of the general public thanks to last weekend’s gritty victory over Georgia. There is an argument to be made that Kalen DeBoer is saving his job simply by beating Kirby Smart every year. That aside, the Crimson Tide are once again in the Playoff conversation, and this season a victory over the Commodores appears to hold more value than just exacting revenge.
It isn’t just wishful thinking to assert that Vanderbilt can come away from Bryant-Denny Stadium with a victory. The Commodores boast the SEC’s second most potent rushing attack, thanks in no small part to Diego Pavia, who leads the team with 294 rushing yards. The Crimson Tide really struggled with Thomas Castellanos’s mobility in Week 1 and Pavia is just as good at extending plays with his legs. Alabama did a nice job adjusting to stop Georgia’s strong rushing attack last weekend, but containing Gunner Stockton in the pocket isn’t the same as doing that with Castellanos or Pavia. Luckily, DeBoer isn’t afraid to engage in track meets and the Crimson Tide should be more successful through the air against Vanderbilt than it was against Florida State. Ty Simpson has made strides every week since the loss and also gets to play this one in front of a home crowd. The Commodores really do have weapons that play to Alabama’s weakness defensively, so this one will be close. But the Crimson Tide showed fight last weekend and I think they are a team quietly gaining confidence at the right time. Revenge will be exacted on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.
My Pick: 35-33 Alabama (does not cover -10.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 20
My old adage of “don’t pick against Bama” may no longer hold true, but home field in Tuscaloosa, plus Alabama’s depth and talent likely prove decisive. Vanderbilt has been impressive, but this step up is steep. I give Vandy credit—they’ll keep it respectable in the first half, then Tide pull away.
#11 Texas Tech at Houston (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
The Program Builder is at it again. Willie Fritz has the Cougars 4-0 for the first time since 2016, and already with as many wins as the program had all of last season. Houston is bucking the typical trends of the Big 12, winning with strong defense and behind the play of a revitalized Connor Weigman, who has been arguably more dangerous with his legs than the arm that was so highly touted when he was at Texas A&M. The Red Raiders are off to a strong start as well, seemingly proving that if you offer it (NIL money, that is), they will come. And by “they”, I’m of course referring to the talent on both sides of the ball that have propelled Texas A&M to one of the strongest statistical starts in the country (No. 2 total offense, No. 12 total defense).
Admittedly, it would be a pretty big upset were Houston to win this game. The last time Texas Tech faced a defense that was supposed to test its offense (Utah), the Red Raiders torched it for 484 yards and 34 points. The Utes did no favors for themselves offensively, however, turning the ball over four times. Houston is unlikely to give Texas Tech any freebies, of which it needs none. The Cougars have turned the ball over just once this season and Coach Fritz knows just how important retention of possession will be in this game. The Texas Tech run defense has terrorized just about everyone it has played this season, so Houston’s offense will need to get creative to find ways to move the football. If there is anyone who can orchestrate such creativity, it is Fritz. Houston is the ultimate underdog this week, as one of two unbeaten teams in the country that did not receive a single AP poll vote. They are being disrespected, and while I think Texas Tech has a bit too much on both sides of the ball, I do think the Cougars will validate the claim that they are a very underrated football team.
My Pick: 30-20 Texas Tech (does not cover -11 spread)
Matt’s Take: Texas Tech 28, Houston 23
Close one. Houston is scrappy at home and can make it messy. But ultimately Tech’s firepower edges them out in a tight finish.
#3 Miami (FL) at #18 Florida State (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
With the losses that ended up occurring last week, all Florida State had to do was beat unranked Virginia at home on Friday night to set up the first Top 5 matchup in this rivalry series since 2004. But instead, the Seminoles forgot how to play defense and we’re left with the consolation of the first Top 25 tilt between these two since 2016. Not bad, and with the game being played in Tallahassee the Seminoles will receive a slight bump from the home crowd. But beating Miami this year has proven to be an impossible task thus far, and the Hurricanes very much look the part of the No. 3 team in the country. Thanks to last week’s slip up, this is no longer just a “nice to have” for Mike Norvell’s squad – it’s a must-win in order to keep pace with the rest of the crowd in the ACC title game race, as well as to retain any real hope of an at-large berth to the Playoff.
Florida State’s loss last week confirmed what was previously an unknown based on prior competition. Despite the gaudy defensive statistics, particularly against the run, the Seminoles still have some issues on that side of the ball. Virginia gashed the Florida State defense for 211 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, providing the blueprint for how the Hurricanes can take care of their in-state rival as well. Miami’s two-headed monster at running back (Mark Fletcher, Jr. and CharMar Brown) should give the Seminoles trouble, and Carson Beck’s return to solid form this season is almost like an added bonus. The Hurricanes protect Beck well and make room for their running backs. Defensively, Mario Cristobal’s squad is as good as Florida State will have seen this season and have already handled a dual threat quarterback in Byrum Brown. They’ll likely give Castellanos some room to throw, but will try not to let him create havoc with his legs. I am coming around on the Hurricanes despite not believing in the preseason, and think that they will be able to get things done in Tallahassee on Saturday evening.
My Pick: 35-21 Miami (FL) (covers -4.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Miami 34, Florida State 27
This is a heavyweight tilt. FSU will bring energy, especially at home, but I see Miami just having enough to cover. Expect some big plays, turnover swings, and a wild finish.
Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – SEC Network)
The Bulldogs proved that their fast start was no fluke last Saturday, taking Tennessee to the brink of defeat in a game that Mississippi State looked at times like it was going to win. If not for two defensive touchdowns by the Vols, we may be looking at Jeff Lebby’s team very differently heading into this week’s clash with the Aggies. Still, the Bulldogs going toe-to-toe with perhaps the country’s best offense is enough to suggest that no one should be taking the team lightly moving forward. Mike Elko’s squad has already faced a couple of decent opponents this season, each of which exhibit some of the best characteristics of the Mississippi State squad, and should be ready for yet another SEC test.
While Tennessee ultimately won the turnover battle last week, Mississippi State made it close by forcing two if its own, one of which put it in great field position in the second half. Free opportunities will be tougher to come by against the Aggies, which have turned the ball over just three times all season. While the Bulldogs won’t have to contend with a receiver as physical as Chris Brazzell this week, Texas A&M has two receivers who do an excellent job creating space downfield in Mario Craver and KC Conception. The ability of Marcel Reed to buy time will make it difficult for the Mississippi State defense to keep track of the wideouts. The Aggies are not as potent offensively as Tennessee, but are better defensively and will be tougher to push the ball through the air against. I came away impressed with both Mississippi State and Texas A&M after last weekend, but I think the matchup against Tennessee was a bit for favorable for the Bulldogs. Additionally, they’ll trade in the comforting clanga clanga of cowbells for the roar of the 12th Man this weekend.
My Pick: 35-27 Texas A&M (does not cover -15.5 spread)
Matt’s Take: Texas A&M 35, Mississippi State 17
A&M has looked strong so far, I see them controlling this one. Mississippi State may hang around early, but the Aggies pull away in the second half.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#9 Texas at Florida (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The Longhorns and Gators have two things in common, both of which are none too complimentary. Neither Texas nor Florida has beaten a P4 school yet this season, which will change for one of these squads by default. The other commonality is difficulties offensively, particularly through the air. Be prepared to remind yourself that the two quarterbacks in this one were considered Heisman Trophy contenders in the preseason.
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – NBC)
What was initially pegged as a battle of Playoff-sized proportion has been diluted significantly thanks to losses by both sides. At this point, another loss is simply not an option if either team is to grab an at-large berth this season. Notre Dame’s defense finally showed up to play last week, suggesting this could be a tough matchup for the Broncos.
#24 Virginia at Louisville (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN2)
Amongst all the marquee matchups last week, Virginia orchestrated perhaps the biggest upset by dispatching of previously No. 8 Florida State at home. However, that victory and a Top 25 rank of their own isn’t enough for Vegas to have a lot of faith in the Cavaliers, as Louisville enters this one as the favorite.
Michigan State at Nebraska (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FS1)
Don’t worry – the half hour start time difference from the first three games highlighted should allow for an easy flip to this one if it ends up being close late in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, this is one of those matchups between mid-tier Big Ten teams that would get completely overshadowed in a more crowded game week. It’s not hating, it’s just honesty.
Duke at California (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET – ESPN) ACC After Dark doesn’t have quite the ring of its predecessor, but this one could be pretty entertaining nonetheless. Cal’s defense has served it well this season but are taking on a Duke offense that has been potent. The Golden Bears have also just been better at home. Chances seem good that both sides will have its moments and that this one will come down to the last few possessions.
