As expected, Week 1 was filled with plenty of close games, some surprises and ample opportunity for overreactions to be thrown around.
After all, of the four losses by teams ranked in the AP poll’s Top 10, three of them came at the hands of other teams also ranked in the Top 10. It’s difficult to say that most of the teams on the losing end of those battles are in serious danger of their seasons getting away from them at this juncture.
Additionally, with so many of the marquee matchups from the previous week featuring new faces at the quarterback position, the reality is that the AP poll figured to be even less accurate than it usually is pre-Week 1.
So despite a poor showing in Week 1, I’m not worried yet when it comes to the head-to-head prediction game. Trent got the best of me, but it was an imperfect week from both sides.
To try to keep things headed in the right direction for the guests, Trent’s brother Matt has agreed to make picks for Week 2. Moving forward in this preview, we’ll refer to Matt as “The Thumbnail”, per his request. In his own words, “The Thumbnail isn’t here to please. He will ruffle feathers if that’s what the truth does.”
The current records with one week in the books:
K. Becks – 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS
Guests – 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
With fewer bluebloods taking center stage this week, this preview should be more informative than formality when compared to last week. Here are the top games to watch in Week 2.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
Iowa at #16 Iowa State (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
A staple on the early season Games to Watch list, the annual battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy figures to be hotly contested once again. The Cyclones have already engaged in a nail-biter this season, but this will be their first one on American soil that figures to be close, having waxed South Dakota last Saturday. Iowa breezed by Albany last weekend, but didn’t need to show much offensively, so this figures to be our first real look at anything resembling a “revamped” offense that has been teased in Iowa City.
Mark Gronowski’s arm was lightly utilized last weekend, but the Hawkeyes will likely need to rely on it more this coming weekend if they want to escape Ames with a victory. Gronowski’s dual-threat ability somewhat resembles that of Avery Johnson, who the Cyclones generally kept in check for most of their season opener in Dublin, Ireland. However, Gronowski is more physical when running and the Cyclones were lucky to have the weather working alongside them in terms of limiting Johnson’s effectiveness through the air. At time of writing there is little chance that precipitation will affect this contest, and I expect the passing game to have a large say in determining the outcome. If Gronowski is truly the best guy that Iowa has had at the quarterback position in years, he’ll prove it as the Cyclones will force that hand. I already know Rocco Becht can do it, though, and like Iowa State to exact revenge on the Hawkeyes for last season’s result.
My Pick: 24-20 Iowa State (covers -3.5 spread)
The Thumbail’s Take: This one is always fun. A classic intrastate rivalry that consistently delivers low-scoring Midwestern football. I never like picking Iowa in these types of games for a few reasons. If they fall behind by a score or more, you might as well take a nap or change the channel. The Hawkeyes aren’t built to come from behind with their I-formation offense. It’s time to move on from the 1990s, even if that means leaving behind some nostalgic, simpler football.
Iowa State is quicker and employs a more modern approach, spreading the field and making the defense cover every blade of grass. If the Cyclones can keep this game from becoming a trench battle, I see them pulling off a close win.
Give me the Cyclones, 17-9.
#20 Mississippi at Kentucky (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
The most shocking of Mississippi’s three regular season losses in 2024 came at the hands of the Wildcats, and although it was early, probably did the greatest amount of damage to the Rebels’ Playoff chances last season. Lane Kiffin isn’t one to hold grudges, but the players on this year’s team that experienced the loss may see this as an opportunity for vengeance.
The Rebels wasted no time introducing the country to their latest crop of offensive weapons, torching Georgia State’s defense for 695 yards, most in the country in Week 1. However, at times new quarterback Austin Simmons looked the part of an inexperienced signal-caller, throwing two interceptions in the first quarter and generally deferring to his initial option downfield if at all. Kentucky looked good defensively last weekend, neutralizing a much more experienced quarterback in Toledo’s Tucker Gleason throughout the first half. The Wildcats will likely dial up a similar amount of pressure on Simmons to see if they can force some mistakes. It will be interesting to see whether Kentucky can last the entire 60 minutes against Mississippi, though. Toledo began to move the ball in the second half, and for as much as the Wildcats figure to lean on their defense in this game, the Rebels’ up tempo approach could create some very tired legs in the later stages. I think that Kentucky can keep things interesting for a half, but unless its offense is more potent the Rebels should pull away as the game wears on.
My Pick: 31-16 Mississippi (covers -10 spread)
The Thumbail’s Take: This game may get out of hand – quickly. Kentucky struggled with a MAC school last week on its home turf. The MAC is so weak right now that one of its teams is ineligible for postseason play due to poor academic performance. Yes, this is real – Google it, Zippy.
I’m sorry if this take upsets the fanbase of Cornversations and Around the Corn Sports Blog. But for anyone who knows me, I don’t cater my opinions to appease an audience. I’m here to give in-depth analysis – even if it hurts a few feelings.
Ole Miss is a run-and-gun-style team with NFL-level talent.
Give me the Rebels, 42-21.
Kansas at Missouri (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN2)
One of the most underrated rivalries in college football is the Border War, which will be played for the first time since 2011 on Saturday afternoon. An unfortunate victim of conference realignment, these two former Big 12 adversaries are neck and neck in a series that has seen 120 previous editions, with Missouri leading by the narrowest of margins (56-55-9 all-time). This is easily the most difficult non-conference battle for each this season, and a chance to prove that early blowout victories weren’t simply a biproduct of the competition. Kansas already felt like it had a real playmaker at quarterback in Jalon Daniels, but Beau Pribula made a solid first impression in Columbia last week and brings to the table some of the same electricity that Daniels provides.
The Tigers needed to replace a lot of offensive talent from last season’s team, but between Pribula, running back Ahamd Hardy and wide receiver Kevin Coleman, may have found the answers rather quickly. All three were productive last week and should challenge a Kansas defense that, while allowing just a touchdown per game thus far, was bending but not breaking at times against a Fresno State team in Week 0 that is far less talented offensively than Missouri. Kansas is no slouch offensively, either, and is good enough on the offensive line to get a push and prevent Daniels from being on the run all game. Defensive pressure will have perhaps the biggest impact on this game, though – the team that applies it better will have the best chance at disrupting the flow of a very talented dual threat quarterback. While Kansas figures to be aggressive defensively to try to knock Pribula out of rhythm, I trust the Tigers to come up big a few more times on that side of the ball thanks to their experience and proven track record under Coach Drinkwitz.
My Pick: 35-31 Missouri (does not cover -6.5 spread)
The Thumbail’s Take: This game is boring as sin. I’m starting to regret volunteering for Week 2 coverage – there aren’t too many intriguing matchups outside the nightcap.
I’ll take a brief detour to mention an Instagram Reel I recently saw. I’m sure many members of K. Becks’s audience are familiar with The Sphere in Las Vegas. There’s now a new 4D viewing experience of The Wizard of Oz there. It includes immersive effects like smoke, wind and leaf machines to simulate the tornado scene where Dorothy’s house gets whisked away to Oz. It’s super cool, but with today’s entertainment prices, I’m sure tickets are well into triple digits. Seems neat—but probably pricey.
Anyway, back to the game.
Give me Missouri, 27-21.
South Florida at #13 Florida (Saturday, 4:15 PM ET – SEC Network)
South Florida’s victory over Boise State last Thursday in itself was only a minor surprise, but the way the Bulls went about neutralizing the Broncos was what had some eyebrows raised across the country. Alex Golesh’s defense was aggressive, making the loss of Ashton Jeanty look all that much worse for Boise State. Offensively, Byrum Brown showed what he can do when he is fully healthy. Now, South Florida will look to make it two for two against ranked opponents this season when it travels to The Swamp to take on the Gators. What feels like a little brother vs. big brother matchup got a little more intriguing based on what we saw in Week 1.
Florida wasn’t expected to struggle in its Week 1 matchup, but no penalty yards was a pleasant surprise on top of the shutout victory. It may not seem like a huge deal, but South Florida shot itself in the foot a few times last week and that’s part of why it took until the second half for the Bulls to really pull away from Boise State. Discipline will be mandatory against the Gators, as there is already a size and talent gap that the Bulls didn’t have to contend with last week. While the focus will be on DJ Lagway, it’s Florida’s offensive line and middle of the defense that gives it the edge in this one. I expect the Gators to be able to move the ball on the ground, somewhat neutralizing the aggressive approach that the South Florida defense deployed in Week 1. On defense, Florida should be more successful containing Byrum Brown, limiting the number of opportunities that Brown has to exploit one-on-one coverage downfield. The Week 1 upset was an indication that South Florida is a true contender in the American Conference this season, but I do not expect the Gators to drop this one at home.
My Pick: 31-21 Florida (does not cover -17.5 spread)
The Thumbail’s Take: Ah, this game could get scrappy. I’d imagine a good number of these players squared off against each other in high school. Needless to say, these teams are familiar foes – it’s literally a turf war.
Expect a BATTLE early on. I could see South Florida hanging in there and maybe even leading at halftime. But as the game wears on, the team with the most resources will prevail. Ask any historian – they’ll tell you wars are won or lost based on which side has the resources (and leadership) to outlast the other.
Florida has the name, brand and NIL draw to land top talent.
Sorry, Bulls fans – but this one goes to the Gators.
Florida wins, 44-28.
#15 Michigan at #18 Oklahoma (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
The game of the week takes place in Oklahoma, where the Sooners will welcome the Wolverines in a clash between college football bluebloods. It has been some time since these two schools have been in such a position – the Wolverines have not traveled to face a ranked, non-conference opponent since 2018, and it has been two more years since the Sooners welcomed a ranked, non-conference opponent to Norman. This one should be highly educational in nature; despite both teams being considered as dark horse candidates to make the Playoff, we don’t know a ton about either of them and some assumptions that we have made to grant them such praise will be tested on Saturday.
Sherrone Moore is expected to be back on the Michigan sideline after serving his one-game suspension last week, but I think that the most important man holding a clipboard for the Wolverines this weekend will be Wink Mardindale. The defensive coordinator impressed me at times last season, dialing up blitz packages that befuddled quarterbacks I felt should have had their way with the Michigan defense. It will be incredibly important for the Wolverines to make John Mateer uncomfortable, and more specifically, to keep him in the pocket as much as possible. Michigan struggled with mobile quarterbacks last season, and the more stationary it can make Mateer the better off the Wolverines will be. Based on Mateer’s capabilities, I see Oklahoma having a better shot at running away with things, but doubt it will be anything but a one score game throughout. Despite my love for Mateer, defense will dictate this battle and give Michigan a shot at coming away with a huge road victory. Oklahoma’s new weapon will do enough to get the job done, though, and endear himself to fans in Norman even more than his 392 yard passing, four touchdown performance last week did.
My Pick: 28-24 Oklahoma (does not cover -5 spread)
The Thumbnail’s Take: I’m going to be as objective as possible with this prediction. I’m a Buckeye fan, so I’d love to see the Maize and Blue fall flat on their face in Norman, Oklahoma. Sadly for me, I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Michigan has positioned itself nicely despite the off-field chaos since Jim Harbaugh’s departure. They’ve built a strong, resilient culture grounded in hard-nosed, finish-the-job football. And what’s worse for me – they finally have a quarterback who’s not just capable, but on the verge of superstardom.
The Big Ten has made a national statement over the past two seasons, claiming championships by knocking off SEC powerhouses. That pattern repeated in Week 1 when OSU beat Texas.
I hate to say it, but Michigan gets my vote in this one. I see them on a collision course with the Buckeyes come late November.
Give me the Wolverines, 31-21.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
San Jose State at #7 Texas (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Spartans threw for over 300 yards last week, only allowed 16 points and lost. The Longhorns only allowed 203 total yards last week, and also lost. Something has got to give for these two teams this weekend, which will both be hungry to bounce back.
Baylor at #17 SMU (Saturday, 12 PM ET – The CW Network)
The Bears didn’t look bad on offense last Friday, but really struggled to contain the legs of Jackson Arnold. Kevin Jennings has wheels as well, and if Baylor doesn’t figure things out on defense quickly, could put itself in a deep hole early in the season.
Texas State at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN+)
The I-35 Rivalry may be one of the most offensively explosive games of the weekend. Texas State posted over 600 yards of offense in Week 1 and the Roadrunners figure to be one of the American’s best offenses in their own right.
West Virginia at Ohio (Saturday, 4 PM ET – ESPNU)
The Rich Rod Era, part II has gotten off to a fast start, but the Bobcats will be no pushover and showed last week that they’re never out of a ballgame. Expect Ohio to give West Virginia everything it can handle and truly test what was one of the country’s most potent rushing attacks in Week 1.
Western Kentucky at Toledo (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN+)
One of the most intriguing non-conference contests between G5 schools all season takes place in Toledo on Saturday evening. The Rockets were competitive against SEC foe Kentucky in Week 1 and should have the offensive firepower to hang with the Hilltoppers, which are cruising behind Maverick McIvor’s eight passing touchdowns (No. 1 nationally).
