Having been off the grid for the majority of last weekend, I would be lying if I said I had a ton of my own thoughts about Week 12.
I was able to watch the highlights of South Carolina vs. Texas A&M, which I imagine didn’t come close to doing the game justice in terms of the disbelief that would have occurred in real time. And while surprised by Alabama’s loss, I had to remind myself that I did believe in both the Sooners and Crimson Tide at the beginning of the season.
It is probably time to update the Texas website.
In the head-to-head prediction game, it was another mediocre week, though a rare one in 2025 in which I actually clawed back a bit on the guests.
The current records after Week 12:
K. Becks – 34-26 SU, 22-36-2 ATS
Guests – 38-22 SU, 26-32-2 ATS
This week, my buddy Andrew will look to slam the door on my late comeback attempt. He’ll be tough to beat, though I do already have a victory over one member of his household this season.
Let’s take at the best that Week 13 has to offer.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#22 Missouri at #8 Oklahoma (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Sooners notched the win of the week last Saturday, rolling into Tuscaloosa and knocking off the Crimson Tide while also likely ending Ty Simpson’s Heisman hopes in the process. Oklahoma has rallied brilliantly since the loss to Texas, which John Mateer played in with just half a working throwing hand. But while Mateer’s presence on offense has been important, the Sooners are really getting things done on the defensive side first and foremost. This weekend, they’ll play their fourth straight game against a ranked opponent, which also happens to be the only team in the SEC that is statistically more dominant defensively.
Speaking of Missouri’s defense, the Tigers have allowed more than 357 total yards of offense just once this season, against Texas A&M. The bad news – as impressive as that has been, Eli Drinkwitz’s squad is 0-3 against ranked competition this season. The trend isn’t promising, either. After coming within a field goal of beating Alabama, Missouri’s next two losses against ranked foes have been increasingly less competitive (by seven against Vanderbilt and by 17 most recently to the Aggies). Luckily for the Tigers, Oklahoma isn’t likely to try to engage in a track meet and the methodical approach and intention to keep things within a single score is more likely against the Sooners than it was going to be against Texas A&M. But Oklahoma’s strength is its defense as well, and it’ll have an answer for a Missouri offense that has become increasingly reliant on the run game since the loss of Beau Pribula. Even if Pribula is back (questionable to play), I like the Sooners.
My Pick: 23-13 Oklahoma (covers -7.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: Missouri’s QB is questionable and I don’t believe will play. If I’m Venables and reading signs I project a defensive slugfest. I think Moneyline Mateer will do just enough magic to keep the Sooners’ Playoff hopes alive. Oklahoma 21, Missouri 17.
Montana State at Montana (Saturday, 2 PM ET – ESPN+)
Places like the Worldwide Leader may have to play politics when choosing its featured game of the week, but at Around The Corn, we’re nimble and don’t have to do that. The Brawl of the Wild is the game of the week – both in terms of what’s at stake and in terms of the passion that will be on display from both sides of the aisle. The Bobcats and Grizzlies are ranked No. 3 and No. 2 in the FCS, respectively, and boast perfect records in Big Sky play. This weekend’s tilt will determine the Big Sky champion, but just as importantly will have an impact on playoff seeding (FCS Playoffs begin next weekend). Don’t let everything that has happened with the network recently deter you from utilizing ESPN+ this weekend; this game is worth compromising on principles.
Removing the many layers that exist in this game, ultimately it’s a traditionalists dream matchup that will see two offenses that like to establish the run game go up against defensive units capable of stopping that with physical play and intensity. Montana State’s Justin Lamson (former Stanford) has done an excellent job replacing Tommy Mellott at quarterback and is something of a lite version of Mellott. The Griz also have a dual threat option in Keali’i Ah Yat, whose shiftiness is a dangerous combination to go along with Eli Gillman (No. 7 in rushing yards and No. 6 in rushing touchdowns in FCS). Ultimately, both teams will have their moments and the momentum swings may have this one feeling a bit like a basketball game. However, when push comes to shove (perhaps literally), I look to the team that makes fewer mistakes as the one to put faith in when there is so little to separate the two sides. Lamson doesn’t make mistakes, whereas Ah Yat sometimes forces things. This one should come down to the final minutes of play, but I like the Bobcats to hand Montana its first loss of the season and pin down the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs.
My Pick: 27-24 Montana State (covers -1.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: Brawl of the Wild, a classic rivalry with classic stakes. The winner earns a Big Sky title, an automatic qualifier and first round bye on the journey to Nashville – likely a collision course with North Dakota State for the FCS title. The atmosphere in Missoula would’ve been an ideal setting for a college GameDay Saturday, but alas. Recently this matchup has blessed the home team and I think that remains the trend. Montana 31, Montana State 28.
#15 Southern Cal at #7 Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
Though it’s not the “After Dark” variety, we’ll be treated to a former Pac-12 rivalry game on Saturday afternoon, which brings with it much of the same significance that we came to know and love when it represented the Conference of Champions. Both the Trojans and Ducks need to win this game to feel good about their chances of making the Playoff, and though neither control their own destiny in terms of a Big Ten title game berth, it still remains a possibility. Oregon’s offense ranks third best in the conference, but this one will certainly be pegged by the country as a battle between the Trojans’ potent offensive attack and the Ducks’ stingy defense.
Southern Cal’s offense was stifled by Iowa last weekend, mustering its second lowest total of the season (360 yards) against the Hawkeyes. However, it was the Trojans defense that came through in a big way, shutting out Iowa in the second half to allow for a successful comeback from being down double digits. While it’s an encouraging sign for Southern Cal fans that the team can win in multiple ways, there should be concern that a similarly slow start against Oregon won’t produce the same outcome. The Ducks are Iowa on steroids when it comes to the run game, and can do even more than the Hawkeyes when it comes to limiting the Trojans’ offensive touches. I think that last weekend’s matchup at the Coliseum gave us an indication of how this one in Eugene may go, and signs are pointing to further struggles for the Trojans. I like Oregon to control the pace of the game and become the fourth team this season to hold Southern Cal under 400 yards of total offense.
My Pick: 28-20 Oregon (does not cover -10 spread)
Andrew’s Take: USC notched a character defining win against Iowa in the rain but I remain unconvinced that the Trojans have risen from the third tier of the Big Ten to match a team of Oregon’s caliber. Dante Moore, despite multiple injuries at WR and OL, is having a quietly successful season in Eugene. I also believe Oregon will be able to have a successful game on the ground in Eugene. Oregon is anxious to record a new marquee win for the Committee after Penn State’s fall from grace and this is it. Give me the Ducks in a high scoring affair. Oregon 38, USC 28.
Pittsburgh at #16 Georgia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
The Panthers’ 22-point loss at home to Notre Dame last weekend has Pat Narduzzi right where he wants Pittsburgh – with a chance to qualify for the ACC title game by beating two Top 15 opponents in back-to-back weekends. Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been a kind environment for visiting teams as of late. The Yellow Jackets haven’t lost there since November 25, 2023 and have beaten opponents this season by an average of over 22 points at home. Brent Key’s group has been playing with fire recently, dropping one of its past two and narrowly avoiding a massive upset against Boston College last weekend. We’ll find out in this spot whether Georgia Tech is truly cracking under the pressure of November football, or just needed a return to the friendly confines to get back to its impressive form it held earlier in the year.
Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense did not come to play last weekend against the Fighting Irish, surrendering a season-high 175 yards on the ground. There are multiple weapons in the backfield for Notre Dame, but even with just one, Georgia Tech has the ability to do a similar number on the Panthers. Haynes King has been exceptional this season, and just as importantly, available by way of good health. Good ball security and capitalizing on redzone opportunities (95.35 conversion rate, No. 6 nationally) make the Yellow Jackets extremely difficult to beat in close games. That’s likely what the Panthers will try to do – keep things close and hope that Mason Heintschel bounces back from last weekend to provide a bit more juice for the offense. Heintschel may be a bit better this week against a slightly less aggressive defensive front, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to hand Georgia Tech its first home loss in almost two years. The Yellow Jackets will punch their ticket to the ACC title game with a victory on Saturday night.
My Pick: 31-24 Georgia Tech (covers -2.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: It has been a long time since Pitt’s loss in the Backyard Brawl. Since then, Pitt has struck gold with true freshman QB Mason Heintschel. Narduzzi was correct that a tough loss against the Irish had no impact on ACC standings, but they will need a more consistent performance if they want a chance against Georgia Tech. I’m projecting a rock fight and I think Yellow Jackets QB Haynes King will put his body on the line to ensure a W. Georgia Tech 31, Pitt 30.
#11 BYU at Cincinnati (Saturday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
The Big 12 title race was expected to be tight this season, and thus far has not disappointed. This game represents an opportunity for things to get significantly wilder, though. If the Bearcats were to win, there is a chance that a five-way tie for second place in the conference could exist heading into the final weekend of the regular season. It may be a tough ask of Cincinnati, which is currently on a two-game losing streak where which its defensive limitations have been put on full display. BYU hasn’t played in the Eastern time zone since mid-September, however, so it will be interesting to see whether that has any effect on Kalani Sitake’s squad.
Though it has felt like BYU has sort of flown under the national radar most of the season, the Cougars are in the enviable position where, if they take care of business and win out in the regular season, it’ll be very difficult to keep them out of the Playoff. Cincinnati’s defensive struggles really didn’t show up until recently, in part because the competition the Bearcats faced earlier in the season was incapable of exploiting the weaknesses. The most recent losses both came against teams in the top half of the Big 12 in total offense. But more importantly, both Arizona and Utah rank in the top five in the conference defensively and were able to prevent Brendan Sorsby from hurting them too significantly. BYU’s defense is right there with the Wildcats and Utes, and offensively is gaining momentum as Bear Bachmeier continues to gain experience. At this point, he’s not a freshman anymore and whereas a month ago I would have had my doubts, think he can exploit Cincinnati’s defense just like the previous two opponents did. With a decent crowd and high pressure on BYU, it may be close, but the Cougars will leave Nippert Stadium victorious.
My Pick: 30-27 BYU (covers -2.5 spread)
Andrew’s Take: Nippert Stadium is a louder home atmosphere than the national media gives it credit for. The Bearcats have a chance if Brendan Sorsby can play a turnover free game. I think BYU is on a collision course with another Texas Tech blowout in the Big 12 title game. BYU 28, Cincinnati 24.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Louisville at SMU (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN2)
Yes, this game fell down the list to becoming one to simply keep an eye on. No, I did not expect both the Cardinals and Mustangs to come into this one unranked. Such is the reality of the ACC these days, where matchups with significant title race hopes don’t have the backing of an CFP figure to help manufacture attention.
Washington State at James Madison (Saturday, 1 PM ET – ESPN+)
It is becoming more apparent by the week that the American Conference is going to have to completely choke away the G5’s lone automatic Playoff berth to not send a team. James Madison is doing its best to command the attention of the Committee, having scored at least 52 points in three of its last four games. But the Dukes have played just one P4 opponent all season, and unfortunately the Cougars don’t qualify as one anymore. However, I’m not sure every Committee member would know that.
Kentucky at #14 Vanderbilt (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The Commodores will likely need a little help to receive an at-large bid to the Playoff, but being right on the cusp is still reason to celebrate in Nashville. The Wildcats have given a number of solid teams a scare this season, so Vanderbilt can make a statement by winning convincingly.
#24 Tulane at Temple (Saturday, 3:45 PM ET – ESPNU)
This one is just a run of the mill contest between two average teams if you take Tulane’s Jon Sumrall’s comments earlier in the week at face value. Coach speak aside, the Green Wave are the latest American school to take the reins when it comes to Playoff positioning. We’ll see if Sumrall’s not-so-subtle attempt to motivate his squad is enough to ensure they retain control for more than a week, which is something their competition has struggled to do.
TCU at #23 Houston (Saturday, 4 PM ET – FOX)
The Cougars legitimately competing for the Big 12 title this season is quietly one of Around The Corn’s best predictions of the preseason. Willie Fritz has done it again, this time building back Houston into a contender in less than three years. It’s made more impressive by the fact that the Cougars are enjoying their first real taste of success in football since moving to the Big 12 in 2023.
