2025 NCAAF: Sun Belt Conference Preview

Comparing the strength of divisions within conferences used to be a regular occurrence across college football’s top division. As of last season, the Sun Belt stands alone in that regard.

While other conferences scrapped divisions in an effort to promote more equitable scheduling concepts, the Sun Belt marched to the beat of its own drum and decided to retain its East and West divisions. The two best teams made it to the league title game in 2024, but it’ll be interesting to see whether people feel that way this season.

The West division appears to be deeper from top to bottom than the East division. I see a possibility that three, perhaps even four teams could truly battle for the West crown, while the East appears to be two team race with a clear favorite.

Teams I Like

James Madison

The loss of Curt Cignetti and the bunches of players along with him did have its effect on the Dukes, which failed to make the Sun Belt title game in 2024 and lost four games in a season for the first time since 2018. This year the losses are far less significant and head coach Bob Chesney has as much talent as any team in the conference. While there was still a lot of transfer portal activity this offseason, there is more continuity on offense, particularly in the run game and on the offensive line. A question mark remains about who will start at quarterback, as presumed started Alonza Barnett was still rehabbing from an injury and missed spring practices. However, there is depth at the position with Matthew Sluka transferring in. Sluka may even start games this season, as there is familiarity between him, Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy, who were all at Holy Cross together from 2022-2023.

The Dukes get three of its most likely competition for the East Division crown (Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Old Dominion) at home and with the exception of Texas State miss most of the presumed contenders on the other side of the conference. If James Madison gets the immediate impact that it expects from some of the transfers on the defensive side, this will be the team to beat in the Sun Belt in 2025.

Southern Mississippi

Head coach Charles Huff won the Sun Belt with Marshall last season, departed the program for Southern Mississippi and brought a lot of his players with him, overnight turning the Golden Eagles program from a disaster that suffered through a 1-11 campaign to one that may contend for a Sun Belt title in 2025. Completely turning around a program is a tough ask in any environment, but admittedly made easier in the transfer portal era. Evaluating Southern Mississippi this season is almost like reviewing whether the defending champions can retain their crown for another school.

The Golden Eagles were abysmal on both sides of the ball last season, but with the additions brought in during the offseason should flip both scripts in 2025. Of particular note is the quarterback position, where Southern Mississippi threw for a combined seven touchdowns to 17 interceptions last season. Far better play will be expected from Braylon Braxton this season, who had a 19-2 TD-to-INT ratio in 2024. Even if Huff doesn’t “retain” the conference title won last season, the Golden Eagles should still have one of the most improved records in FBS.

Troy

The Trojans had their backs against the wall heading into last season, with a new head coach, very few returning starters and a difficult schedule. While it was still a difficult season that saw Troy start 1-7, the team showed fight throughout and ended on a relatively high note, victorious in three of its last four with much better play on the offensive side of the ball. With more starters back on the offense in 2025 than on the entire team in 2024, that momentum should carry over and see the Trojans be more competitive the first half of the season.

Troy has a winning culture and despite the tough start, Gerad Parker maintained that through last season’s struggles. A return to the postseason is certainly within reach for this squad, and if the offense takes a larger leap than I am expecting, perhaps even a serious run at the West Division title is a possibility.

Not High On

Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck’s approach to utilize the transfer portal heavily each season isn’t a shocking one, as it can be difficult for G5 schools to maintain continuity, especially if they have players that can make the jump to a P4 school. But the results last season for the Chanticleers were mixed, and relatively poor by the end of the season when it was clear that they were no longer playing for much.

I do not think that the results will be wildly different for Coastal Carolina this season, which faces a tough non-conference schedule and must travel to play conference foes Old Dominion, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. It could be a very similar story, in fact, where the Chanticleers are out of the Sun Belt title race before the regular season ends and motivation dips for the last couple of games.

Marshall

The Thundering Herd’s roster was decimated by the departure of former head coach Charles Huff, presenting new coach Tony Gibson with a really tough situation. Marshall deployed the Air Raid offense last season but will be moving away from that again with the new coaching regime, which is probably a good decision given the massive overhaul in personnel. However, with so many new faces and yet another new scheme to learn, it would not be surprising if the offense was near the bottom of the Sun Belt statistically in 2025.

Whereas Southern Mississippi has the possibility to go from worst to first this season, Marshall appears equally as likely to go the other direction. It is the unfortunate biproduct of the transfer portal, though in some ways it is hard to bemoan the reality as it is ultimately more fair to the players affected by a coach leaving a school to give them the same opportunity.

Players To Watch

Corey Rucker, Arkansas State wide receiver

Arkansas State’s all-time leading receiver, Rucker has thrice led the Red Wolves in receiving yards, once as a freshman and again 2023-2024. He is a familiar face for quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who has also been with the program since 2023 and whose comfort level in the pocket can be attributed at least in part to having a receiver like Rucker downfield.

A relatively big wide receiver in the Sun Belt at 214 pounds, Rucker has no issue with physicality downfield and is willing to run routes that ultimately put him in a position to take hits.

George Pettaway, James Madison running back

The Dukes like to establish a strong presence on the ground, and Pettaway leads a deep running back corps that figures to be one of the most productive in the Sun Belt this season. Pettaway asserted himself as the feature back last season and led the way with 980 yards rushing, but may be able to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in 2025, especially if there is less running from the quarterback position.

Pettaway is versatile, displaying soft hands and is the most valuable back that the Dukes have on obvious passing downs. Despite a crowded running back room, he should receive enough playing time to make a serious run at first-team all-conference honors this season.

Braylon Braxton, Southern Mississippi quarterback

The redshirt senior Braxton has never played a full season in college, but will be in line to do so in 2025 and will be integral to Southern Mississippi’s quest to orchestrate a monumental turnaround this season. Things began to click for Braxton midway through last season, when he seized the starting role at Marshall and went 8-1, throwing for 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

While Braxton has up to this point been a guy whose success as a passer has been because of his ability as a runner to freeze defenses, he was a participant at the Manning Passing Academy over the summer and appears committed to becoming a stronger pocket passer this season. If that happens, he’ll be one of the most dynamic players in the Sun Belt in 2025.

Games to Watch (Conference)

Georgia Southern at James Madison (September 27)

The conference opener for both of these programs may also serve as the decider in the East division. The Eagles and Dukes are the favorites from that side of the Sun Belt to make it to the conference title game.

Louisiana at James Madison (October 11)

Despite relative success for both sides over the past two seasons (Louisiana West division winner 2024, James Madison East division winner 2023), this is the first ever meeting between the Ragin’ Cajuns and Dukes. Could it be the first of two meetings in 2025?

Southern Mississippi at Louisiana (October 18)

Charles Huff’s inaugural conference slate as head coach of the Golden Eagles starts off with two really difficult games – on the road at Georgia Southern and then in Louisiana against the Ragin’ Cajuns nine days later. For Southern Miss to go from worst to first in one season, it will need to win at least one of those two.

James Madison at Texas State (October 28)

On paper, this looks like a matchup between the two best squads in the Sun Belt this season. These two programs have only met once prior, a blowout victory in favor of James Madison. It’s nearly guaranteed to be more hotly contested this time around.

Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (November 6)

One of the best rivalries in the conference between two programs with sustained success. Georgia Southern’s offense should be potent this season, but Appalachian State worked hard in the offseason to prepare a defense that should be much better than it was in 2024. Either school could reach the Sun Belt title game and it wouldn’t be shocking.

Texas State at Louisiana (November 8)

Though the West division appears to be the stronger of the two sides in the Sun Belt this season, this game may be the one that decides it. Despite contrasting offensive styles, both teams will score a lot of points this season and this should be a fun one to watch, likely with title game implications on the line.

Texas State at Southern Mississippi (November 15)

If Southern Miss is still in contention to play for the conference title game at this point in the season, this matchup figures to be massive. The Bobcats have put up at least 50 points on the Golden Eagles the past two meetings and absolutely destroyed them last season (58-3), but this year’s edition should be a much better watch.

Games to Watch (Non-Conference)

James Madison at Louisville (September 5)

I like both teams and expect that this game will be competitive throughout. Although it is an early season matchup, short weeks are never easy to prepare for and this is a Friday evening affair. If Louisville is able to win (which they should), they won’t get enough credit for it.

Georgia Southern at Southern Cal (September 6)

This game marks a return to Los Angeles for Clay Helton, who coached Southern Cal from 2015-2021 prior to landing at Georgia Southern. Helton feels good about his team’s offense this year, so it will be interesting to see whether this turns into a bona fide track meet.

Texas State at UTSA (September 6)

The I-35 Rivalry is still green enough at the FBS ranks that it doesn’t get a ton of attention, but both programs have done a good job building at this level and it has turned into a game with reasons to watch. This year either team has an outside shot at making the Playoff, but winning this game would be a necessity to do that.

Aw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)

*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!

Texas State Wins Conference (+750)

The Bobcats had all the makings of a conference title winning squad last year but failed to live up to those expectations.

This season, the team is still strong and while I am not predicting an unbeaten record, see this bet as being just as attractive as it was in 2024.

Southern Mississippi Wins Conference (+1400)

The attractiveness of this one really comes down to how much faith you have in a head coach bringing a lot of players with him from his old program and enjoying quick success in a new environment.

We have seen it before to varying extents (Deion Sanders at Colorado, Curt Cignetti at Indiana), but taking a previously 1-11 team to a conference title the next season is a huge jump any way you look at it.

Troy Over 5.5 (-115)

Last season was expected to be a difficult transition year for the Trojans and they still managed to come close to this year’s O/U number.

Troy will be a much improved football team in 2025 and the line seems particularly low. Across all of the plays I have listed in my previews this season, this is one I feel most strongly about.

Predictions

East Division

1. James Madison (9-3, [6-2])
2. Appalachian State (8-4, [6-2])
3. Georgia Southern (9-3, [6-2])
4. Old Dominion (7-5, [5-3])
5. Coastal Carolina (4-8, [3-5])
6. Georgia State (3-9, [2-6])
7. Marshall (2-10, [0-8])

West Division

1. Texas State (8-4, [6-2])
2. Southern Mississippi (9-3, [6-2])
3. Louisiana (8-4, [6-2])
4. Troy (6-6, [5-3])
5. South Alabama (4-8, [2-6])
6. Louisiana-Monroe (2-10, [1-7])
7. Arkansas State (2-10, [0-8])

Conference Title Game

Texas State at James Madison

Champion: James Madison