I don’t want to spoil most of my talking pieces on Cornversations this week, but I’ll say it multiple times here and you’ll hear it again there: college football is on fire right now.
From the wacko title game matchups that have been created thanks to division-less conferences and unbalanced schedules, to a coaching carousel that is steadily gaining speed when the ride should be shut off, it’s truly the Wild West in the game we love.
Good or bad? Well, that’s for us to debate from now until the next knee-jerk reaction to try to solve it all.
Unless my guest this week just picks against me for the giggles, the prediction game has effectively been wrapped up by the bad team.
The current records after Rivalry Week:
K. Becks – 42-28 SU, 26-42-2 ATS
Guests – 45-25 SU, 30-38-2 ATS
Congratulations to all of you, but don’t expect the same success come Bowl Mania time. This week, my buddy Neil joins to try to close things out officially for the guests.
Let’s take a closer look at the Championship Weekend schedule.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
Troy at #25 James Madison (Friday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
A lot would need to happen for James Madison to make the CFP even if they win the Sun Belt title on Friday evening, but sometimes all you can ask for is a chance. Bob Chesney has already accepted the UCLA head coaching job, but will guide the Dukes in this game and stick around if the team happens to get the Playoff nod. They’ll need help, and consequently, it’d need to come from…Duke. The Blue Devils beating Virginia in the ACC title would provide a window of hope for multiple G5 champions grabbing an automatic berth. But first, James Madison needs to take care of business against the Trojans.
With an offense that borders being anemic, Troy certainly has relied on its defense to set up its chance to lift the trophy in this one. The Trojans are balanced but not dominant defensively, though they do tend to do a good job getting to the quarterback (29 sacks on the year). Unfortunately, the run defense has been somewhat inconsistent this season, and that’s where James Madison can really hurt Troy. Always expected to be a multi-faceted monster, the Dukes’ backfield has surprisingly been led by Wayne Knight, one of four with at least 300 rushing yards this season. Expect James Madison to come at the Troy defense head on and if successful on the ground, win this game rather handily.
My Pick: 40-24 James Madison (does not cover -23.5 spread)
Neil’s Take: Both teams are vying for a Conference Championship, but the Dukes are also fighting for an outside shot at the CFP. Barring a surprising Trojan Goose, James Madison will run away with the second half while making a statement for the selection committee.
44-24 JMU
#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane (Friday, 8 PM ET – ABC)
The fact that the winner of this game is likely to end up in the CFP, yet both head coaches have already accepted head coaching positions elsewhere for the 2026 season, says a lot about where college football as a sport is at right now. Eric Morris will head to Oklahoma State, but has the Mean Green in the CFP rankings for the first time ever. Tulane is more accustomed to the success, but Jon Sumrall only spent a couple of years with the program cultivating it before taking the Florida job. Let’s focus on the positive, though: of all the G5 conferences in the country, none have more depth than the American and one of these teams will be a deserving presumed recipient of an auto-bid to the Playoff. And the nickname battle? Doesn’t get much better than Mean Green versus Green Wave.
While neither team was exceptionally bad on defense this season, this title game figures to be decided by a pair of excellent offenses. North Texas especially has been fun on that side of the ball, posting a nationally leading 46.8 PPG clip that can cause even the best defensive minds to lose sleep. Redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker, one of the most interesting stories in college football, also leads the country with nearly 320 passing yards per game. His abilities can loosen up a good Tulane run defense, and if it does, look out for freshman back Caleb Hawkins. The Mean Green’s young running back leads the country in his own right – with 23 rushing touchdowns. North Texas plays offensively as if it only knows “Go”, and Tulane is opportunistic enough defensively to make the Mean Green pay for such an approach. But if the turnovers aren’t forced, I think the visitors will have just a bit more juice in what figures to be a wildly entertaining game.
My Pick: 45-38 North Texas (covers -2.5 spread)
Neil’s Take: The AAC has two ranked teams in their championship while the ACC only has one? The Friday night lights in NOLA will be bright. This marks the fifth consecutive AAC championship for hosts Tulane, but the debut for the boys from Denton. North Texas boasts the No. 1 scoring offense in the FBS and their storm surge will be too much for the Green Wave.
48-27 North Texas
#11 BYU vs. #4 Texas Tech [game in Arlington, TX] (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
A rematch of a highly anticipated regular season battle will ensue at Jerry’s World on Saturday afternoon. Things didn’t go smoothly for the Cougars in Lubbock – it was the only time all season that BYU has been held to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has cruised pretty much the entire season with the exception of the against Arizona State game, where the Red Raiders were without Behren Morton. Sitting squarely on the Playoff “bubble”, it feels like a must-win game for BYU whereas Texas Tech is playing for seeding. Last year the Committee assured us that playing in a conference title game could only help such teams, but it feels almost certain that a Cougars loss will change the narrative.
The most impressive aspect of Texas Tech’s victory over BYU in the earlier meeting was the flexing of defensive muscle. The Red Raiders were fairly pedestrian offensively by their standards, but were the only team this season to shut down both BYU’s run and passing attacks in the same game. It highlights an overlooked reality about Texas Tech that has rarely been the case for the program – Joey McGuire’s team has been dominant defensively for most of the season. Controlling the pace of the game is typically something that Kalani Sitake’s squad does, but that’s difficult to do against the Red Raiders. What worked last time will likely be tried again in the case of Texas Tech, and I don’t expect a wildly different result. The Cougars will have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday and will likely end up disappointed.
My Pick: 24-13 Texas Tech (does not cover -12.5 spread)
Neil’s Take: BYU dug deep into the sacred underpants to find Coach Sitake’s money, and even promised him his own planet to stay in Provo. The team better be ready to perform after that kind of effort! Texas Tech is already in the Playoff, and BYU needs to win to have a chance. I think BYU avenges their previous loss and wins a close game.
27-21 BYU
Also, Bear vs. Behren might be an all-time quarterback name matchup.
#3 Georgia vs. #9 Alabama [game in Atlanta] (Saturday, 4 PM ET – ABC)
In a year where Mississippi, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt all have historically great seasons for those programs, we end up with an SEC Championship Game between Alabama and Georgia. Boring script, maybe, but Alabama is in a similar position to BYU and can’t really afford to lose this game by anything but a close margin if it wants to feel decent about its Playoff prospects come Sunday. Georgia can’t necessarily treat this game any differently, either – a loss almost surely drops the Bulldogs out of a first round bye position. The first matchup between these two was excellent and we should get another chess match between these two head coaches in Atlanta.
When the two played in Athens in late September, Georgia’s pass defense was causing Kirby Smart to lose sleep at night. That was the game where I really started to believe Ty Simpson was one of the most important players in college football, too. Since that time the Bulldogs have settled down defensively, in large part because the run stopping ability has been so good. Outside of the game against FCS Eastern Illinois, Alabama hasn’t been particularly impressive running the ball in the second half of the year. Coach Smart was already going to switch some things up to make Kalen DeBoer prove his worth, but the Crimson Tide may have been leaning towards relying heavily on Ty Simpson anyway. If Georgia is successful at making Alabama ask Simpson to put on the Superman cape yet again, I don’t think it works out in the Crimson Tide’s favor this time around.
My Pick: 27-24 Georgia (covers -2.5 spread)
Neil’s Take: After losing 7 of 8 matchups against Bama under Kirby Smart, I think the Bulldogs address the Elephant in the room on Saturday. After a tough loss to Bama in September, UGA has beat pretty solid teams like Ole Miss, Texas and rival Georgia Tech. They’ll make a statement, get a first round bye and probably play 2 more SEC teams in the playoff.
31-20 UGA
Duke vs. #17 Virginia (Saturday, 8 PM ET – ABC)
Hot take: this is the most interesting college football game of the week. If Virginia were to win, then the ACC would be sending a team to the Playoff that most experts predicted would finish near the bottom of the conference (Around The Corn had them next to last). Again, most “experts” have been predicting since October that the Cavs’ string of luck would surely run out before this point. If Virginia were to lose, then a five-loss Duke team would win the conference while likely simultaneously keeping the ACC out of the Playoff entirely. As the icing on the cake, some G5 conference champion would probably get an automatic bid while Miami sits at No. 12 or better in the CFP rankings. I love chaos, but make it make sense.
Here’s the story on Virginia, since you probably don’t know anything about them. A sixth-year quarterback in Chandler Morris has been a solid game manager for a team that runs the ball more than it throws. He’s blown up in two games this season, one being against Duke. The Blue Devils struggle to defend the run and were gashed by the Cavaliers in that area just three weeks ago, a 34-17 defeat in Durham. If it weren’t for that, I’d feel a lot better picking Virginia to win. Something tells me that a second chance won’t be wasted by Duke, though. It’s college football, right? And it’s on fire right now. If Chandler Morris, who played at North Texas last season, and the Mean Green both get into the Playoff separately, something bad is going to happen in the world. I feel like I’m preventing a catastrophic event here. Thank me later.
My Pick: 31-28 Duke (covers +4 spread)
Neil’s Take: The 2025 ACC Lacrosse, I mean Football, Championship is interesting because of the potential chaos Duke would cause by winning. While they don’t have the most impressive resume this season, they are undefeated (4-0) against teams from North Carolina. OK, they’ve lost 3 games in the state this year – including to Virginia – but I think the fact that the championship game is in NC bodes well. Throw in the fact that UVA lost to two teams that Duke beat this season and I see a path to a chaotic win for the Blue Devils.
27-24 Duke
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (Friday, 7 PM ET – CBS Sports Network)
Neither one of these teams were expected to do much at the beginning of the season, but here they are, playing for a conference title (on merit alone!). The Owls are up-tempo, fun offensively but shaky defensively. Jacksonville State may not be able to take advantage, though, with the conference’s worst passing offense. This is a fun way to kick off Championship Weekend.
Neil’s Take: 35-27 Jacksonville State
UNLV at Boise State (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
It’s hard to argue with computer metrics that you don’t truly understand, but I feel for New Mexico, having been left out of this game in favor of the Broncos and Rebels, despite having beaten UNLV head-to-head a month ago. To add insult to injury, the Mountain West could come out of this PR debacle having awarded the conference title to a team that will head off to the Pac-12 next season.
Neil’s Take: 30-24 Boise State
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan [game in Detroit] (Friday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
Similarly to the Mountain West, the MAC sent a team to its title game thanks to the RedHawks being favorable in a set of complicated to understand tiebreaker rules, despite losing to the two teams (Ohio and Toledo) also in the mix. It doesn’t feel as egregious in this case, though, and Miami was in the midst of a quarterback transition during those losses.
Neil’s Take: 44-17 Western Michigan
#2 Indiana vs. #1 Ohio State [game in Indianapolis] (Saturday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
This isn’t the banger you think it is. Both head coaches are smart enough to know that the main prize is further down the road, and something catastrophic happening just isn’t worth it in exchange for a Big Ten title. This one is interesting in the sense that we don’t know how these two will be guarded, but they will be.
Neil’s Take: Indiana has only beaten (scheduled) 2 bowl eligible teams. 38-19 Bucks.
