When it comes to college football, the general fan doesn’t appreciate parity as much as many of them say they do. As an example, it isn’t surprising for someone to hear, “college football is better when (insert big name program X) is battling for national titles.”
But on the other hand, a little parity within the Power 4 ranks is good for the game. And nowhere is there more of it than in the Big 12 Conference, where it’s a distinct possibility that the team most predicted to finish last will end up winning it.
That’s not just a statement made for dramatic effect, either. It actually happened last season when Arizona State went from preseason cellar dweller to real-life champions of the Big 12. And while the Sun Devils aren’t being picked near the bottom this year, they are amongst a handful of teams that seemingly have a realistic shot of winning the league.
Is there really a favorite in the Big 12? I think not. Parity may not even be the right word to describe the Big 12 this season – it’s just incredibly balanced. But the conference is guaranteed a spot in the CFP and for that reason alone, will garner a lot of attention even if it doesn’t have a single team inside the Top 10.
In 2024, nine of the 16 teams in the Big 12 still had a chance to make the conference title game heading into the last week of the regular season. While that figure will be tough to match this year, the conference will still be as hotly contested as any in college football in 2025.
Embed from Getty ImagesTeams I Like
Arizona State
The reigning Big 12 champs came out of nowhere last season, surprising almost everybody outside of the locker room by making it to the CFP and taking Texas to the brink of defeat in the quarterfinals. Kenny Dillingham has reenergized this program quickly, and this season the expectations are understandably much higher from the media. The Sun Devils return a lot of key pieces from last season’s squad, including quarterback Sam Leavitt and wideout Jordyn Tyson, two of the best in the country at their respective positions.
However, Arizona State will be looking for a new soul of the team, and more practically, an engine for the offense. Not only was running back Bo Skattebo the leader on an off the field last year, but his 293 rushing attempts were third nationally. The Sun Devils are well positioned to contend for another conference crown, but if they get it done it’ll likely look a little different than it did last season.
Houston
It has been three years since the Cougars have won more than four games in a single season, but I think that head coach Willie Fritz has Houston primed for a return to the postseason. Fritz has a track record of turning programs around in his second season with a school, of which the 2025 campaign represents for him. The Cougars snagged Connor Weigman in the portal (former Texas A&M) and should be much more dangerous in the passing game, which in turn will open up the run game, Fritz’s specialty.
There are plenty of returnees in the backfield, on the offensive line and across the defense that understand what Fritz wants to accomplish and can make it happen. While I am not suggesting that this team is going to contend for the Big 12 title this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened, and at the very least Houston will go bowling again for the first time since 2022.
Iowa State
The Cyclones were sitting pretty in 2024 heading into November before back-to-back losses derailed what could have been a resume worthy of an at-large Playoff bid. The reality of that slide was that injuries decimated what was a very good defense. Iowa State is extremely well coached and with Matt Campbell leading the program it is only a matter of time before the program makes the CFP.
This season could very well be the one where the Cyclones break through. Rocco Becht will be a three-year starter and is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, which should make it easier to weather the loss of two NFL Draft choices at wideout. They may not resemble a typical Big 12 power offensively, but will be extremely confident at what they do what to accomplish on that side of the ball. Defensively, if Iowa State can stay healthy then it will continue to get better throughout the season, as it often does under Campbell. The Cyclones start the year with a tough outing, but most of its key games are in Ames and I expect them to be in the Big 12 title conversation come December.
Utah
The final chapter of the Cam Rising era came and went with little more than a whimper, which is a shame for all of us that had high hopes not only for Rising, but for the entirety of the Utes team in 2024. Despite a number of injuries, Utah exhibited the spirit of their coach by never giving up and came close to a much better record last season, losing five games by eight points or fewer. A lot of those close losses may have gone the other way if there had been more consistent play at quarterback, something that the Utes should get in 2025. Devon Dampier was a dangerous dual threat option at New Mexico, earning first-team Mountain West honors last season and is available in Salt Lake for Whittingham & Co.
The offense that Dampier was in at New Mexico last season was an option variant which will be employed by the Utes in 2025, as the Lobos’ former OC Jason Beck joins Whittingham’s staff this season. Normally I would be skeptical that such an approach could work in the pass-happy Big 12, but Utah’s defense will be one of the best in the country, let alone the conference, and should be able to hold leads. The schedule definitely has some landmines scattered throughout the year, but it would not surprise me in the least if the Utes are able to make the Playoff in 2025, something I thought they would accomplish last year.
Embed from Getty ImagesNot High On
Kansas State
The Wildcats are coming off a nine-win season and appear to have a lot of the pieces in place desired by head coach Chris Klieman to be successful in the way they want to play. That being said, it is a bit risky to assert that this team won’t meet expectations, which is to win a Big 12 title. My reasoning is twofold: firstly, I didn’t see quite the level of maturity from Avery Johnson that I had expected to see last season and his style of play sometimes brings with it the turnovers that hurt Kansas State. It is possible that his highlight reels will perpetually inflate his value. Secondly, the schedule is really tough, with a few road or neutral contests against other Big 12 title contenders (Iowa State, Baylor, Utah) spread out across the season.
The aforementioned “tough” contests are against teams that also understand the value of a strong offensive line and play good defense. I predict Kansas State struggling to be effective offensively against teams that play like it does, which is what happened last season as well.
UCF
The program isn’t in as dire of shape as when Scott Frost last took over, but his activity in the transfer portal over the offseason could have you fooled. The Knights are effectively replacing the entirety of both sides of the ball, and while there is some starting experience that exists on the roster, most of it came from elsewhere.
The last time Frost turned around UCF, the program was a part of the AAC. Doing so again in such quick fashion won’t be so easy in a Power conference, especially with road games against Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech and BYU on the schedule this season. The Knights were probably better set up to compete in the Big 12 last year, a campaign in which they finished 4-8.
Embed from Getty ImagesPlayers To Watch
Noah Fifita, Arizona quarterback
As a redshirt freshman Fifita showed just how electric he could be, seizing the starting job partway through the season en route to a 25 touchdown, 239.1 passing YPG campaign that trailed five guys in the Pac-12 who are all in the NFL now. There were high expectations coming into 2024, but injuries on the Arizona offensive line and a porous defense that may have prompted Fifita to try to play hero ball too much resulted in a disappointing year.
Although Fifita will need to find a new go-to target with the departure of wideout Tetairoa McMillan, better health up front and a deeper wide receiving corps at his expense should do wonders for the now veteran signal caller. He remains one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league and should resemble the version of himself from two seasons ago in 2025.
Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State wide receiver
The Sun Devils will be seeking a go-to skill position player to fill the massive shoes of Bo Skattebo, and Tyson is the betting favorite to fill that role this season. Already a massive part of the offense, Tyson’s 1,101 yards was nearly 500 more than the next closest Arizona State player in 2024 (you guessed it – Skattebo), and his 10 receiving touchdowns was tied for most in the Big 12.
Tyson is nearly the complete package that would make NFL scouts salivate. He exhibits excellent route running, has good straight line speed and can separate from defenders. If he can cut down on his drops, he’ll clearly be one of the best wide receivers in the country this season and make Sam Leavitt’s job a lot easier moving the team down the field without the threat of a guy like Skattebo in the backfield.
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State quarterback
Speaking of Leavitt, there is no mention of Tyson without the quarterback who was equally as surprising in his first year as a starter as the Arizona State team was as a whole last season. Leavitt was excellent for the Sun Devils, displaying maturity beyond his years in throwing the fewest interceptions (6) of any Big 12 starter last season.
Dangerous with his legs as well, Leavitt may not have as much trouble without Skattebo around as some would think. He is a passer first and foremost, but his ability to do damage on the ground makes it difficult for linebackers and edge rushers to commit to a decision against him. The Sun Devils have staying power near the top of the Big 12 thanks to the revelation of Leavitt.
Sawyer Robertson, Baylor quarterback
If there is any quarterback that had a more surprisingly productive season in 2024 than Sam Leavitt, it is his conference mate Sawyer Robertson. Not even projected to be the starter heading into last season, Robertson got an opportunity early thanks to an injury and never looked back, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns (second best in the Big 12). Needless to say, Robertson is the guy for the Bears heading into the 2025 campaign.
Thanks to a senior laden receiving corps, an all-conference caliber running back and an experienced offensive line, Baylor figures to be one of if not the most potent offense in a conference known for offensive fireworks. Robertson will be the orchestrator of it all and may quickly become a household name nationally if the Bears take the next step as a team and contend for a Playoff spot this season.
Lee Hunter, Texas Tech defensive tackle
The Red Raiders are rarely known for their defensive prowess, but it is the dawn of a new era in Lubbock thanks to the transfer portal and NIL. Texas Tech invested heavily in bringing in top talent from around the country, specifically on the defensive end, where Joey McGuire’s team figures to go from one of the most porous defenses in the Big 12 to one of the better units in the country.
There are a lot of potential candidates on the Red Raiders to choose from, but I wanted to give some love to the interior defensive line for a change. The 6’4”, 330 pound Hunter is a monster inside, creating more quarterback pressures over the past two seasons than all but one returning interior lineman in the country. He will provide massive reinforcement for a Texas Tech defense that forced just 21 sacks all of last season. You will see him on playing on Sundays someday.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Conference)
Iowa State vs. Kansas State [game in Dublin, Ireland] (August 23)
This contest is being criminally underrated, and the fact that it is in Ireland instead of Ames or Manhattan unfortunately contributes to that. A plea from K. Becks at Around The Corn – do not miss this game! It isn’t simply a gimmick; it is the best of the Week 0 bunch.
Arizona State at Baylor (September 20)
In the span of two seasons, these teams have gone from 3-9 afterthoughts to preseason conference favorites. Two of the best quarterbacks in the pass-happy Big 12 will face off in this one, bringing the promise of plenty of points being scored.
Texas Tech at Utah (September 20)
A lot has been made of Texas Tech’s NIL and transfer portal activity this offseason, but things will get real very quickly for the Red Raiders when they travel to Salt Lake City for their conference opener. Kyle Whittingham’s teams historically have a knack for reminding you not to count your chickens before they hatch.
Arizona State at Utah (October 11)
The 2024 edition of this matchup was a coming out party for the Sun Devils, and on the other end, a somber realization that the Cam Rising revenge tour was perpetually stuck in neutral. Here’s to hoping that this year’s version is just as entertaining while simultaneously a healthier endeavor for both sides.
Arizona State at Iowa State (November 1)
Kenny Dillingham’s team pummeled the Cyclones in the Big 12 title game last season, and there is enough continuity on Matt Campbell’s team where that experience could serve as a motivator for the entirety of the 2025 season. I expect this to be a tightly contested matchup and one of the key results in determining who plays in this year’s conference title game.
Iowa State at TCU (November 8)
The Horned Frogs figure to be a dangerous squad that will be better on both sides of the ball (particularly defensively) than most people expect. As arguably Iowa State’s toughest road test, this game could easily be one that upsets the balance of the conference title race in a surprising way.
Utah at Baylor (November 15)
Assuming injuries do not play a major factor (a somewhat bold assumption for a mid-November matchup), this may be one of the rare Big 12 games where defensive strategy has the biggest impact on the outcome. What should be two of the better defenses in the conference will prepare to stop contrasting offensive styles.
Kansas State at Utah (November 22)
These two teams figure to have somewhat similar styles offensively that contrast as much as any to the rest of the Big 12. For fans of smashmouth football, you won’t find a better matchup on this conference’s slate. It would not be surprising for this one to be a battle of wills where the final few possessions decide the game.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Non-Conference)
Georgia Tech at Colorado (August 29)
This year’s Buffs are a rebuilt squad, particularly on the offensive end, will be put to the test early against a Georgia Tech squad that won’t offer a ton of opportunities to touch the football. It wasn’t a fast start for Colorado in last year’s opener, which won’t be a recipe for success if repeated against the Yellow Jackets.
TCU at North Carolina (September 1)
This is the only Week 1 matchup that stands by itself, as the singular game being played on Labor Day. For that reason alone it is worth watching, but if you want a first look at Bill Belichick’s collegiate experiment, that’s a good reason, too.
Army at Kansas State (September 6)
From a scheduling perspective, Kansas State received no favors having to face Army just two weeks after being in Ireland. It would not be overly surprising to see a slightly worn down Wildcats squad, making it all that much tougher to contain Army’s disciplined option attack.
Baylor at SMU (September 6)
A renewal of a former Southwest Conference rivalry that began in 1916 and hasn’t been played since 2016. Both the Bears and Mustangs have Playoff aspirations, and unlike many other non-conference battles during the early part of the regular season, heading into the year this one feels like as much of a “must-win” as any.
Embed from Getty ImagesAw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
Iowa State Makes College Football Playoff (+900)
The Big 12 is as difficult as any conference in the country to try to prognosticate, so putting some coin on what feels a team that has been slowly but surely building into a true title contender over the past few seasons seems like a calculated risk.
The Cyclones almost put it all together last season but came up just a little short. This year, the expectations aren’t really any higher outside the locker room, but these guys know what it takes having experienced the disappointment of being so close in 2024.
Houston Over 6.5 (+110)
Willie Fritz has a demonstrated history of turning programs around quickly, and last year’s 4-8 result from the Cougars showed some promise.
With a kinder schedule and a number of players back that understand Fritz’s philosophy, the line for Houston this season, which suggests barely making a bowl game, seems low.
Jordyn Tyson Wins Biletnikoff Award (+1100)
While Tyson is a distant third to Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams to win this award, he is the only one of the three to have continuity with the guy throwing to him coming into this season.
It would be a big upset if this happened, but if it did Tyson would probably want to bring Sam Leavitt up on the stage with him when accepting the trophy.
Embed from Getty ImagesPredictions
- Utah (10-2, [7-2])
- Iowa State (10-2, [7-2])
- Baylor (9-3, [6-3])
- Arizona State (9-3, [6-3])
- Houston (9-3, [6-3])
- Cincinnati (8-4, [6-3])
- Texas Tech (8-4, [5-4])
- Kansas State (8-4, [5-4])
- TCU (8-4, 5-4])
- BYU (7-5, [4-5])
- Kansas (6-6, [4-5])
- Colorado (5-7, [3-6])
- West Virginia (5-7, [3-6])
- UCF (4-8, [2-7])
- Oklahoma State (3-9, [1-8])
- Arizona (3-9, [1-8])
Conference Title Game
Iowa State vs. Utah (game in Arlington, TX)
Champion: Iowa State
