One of the special things about college football that I believe sets it apart from just about every other sport on the planet is that, even as the seasons winds down to a close, we find ourselves continuing to second guess and revise what we think we’ve known all season.
Case in point: the Orange Bowl, where Oregon wholly exposed Texas Tech’s offense. Read that again. Not Texas Tech’s defense, which actually did as good a job against Oregon’s run game as anyone not named Indiana. It’s offense.
What that game did was set us up with yet another opportunity to evaluate whether what we think we learned almost three months ago still holds up, when the stakes are higher and the advantages for each side seemingly less pronounced.
Maybe I’m a little disappointed that another Big Ten school isn’t still playing but, with games like this still to be played? I think I’ll live.
Let’s take a look at the second CFP semifinal matchup.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana (Friday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Interestingly, there have been a few regular season rematches in this edition of the CFP. One has been excellent, while the other left more than a little to be desired. The third should lean towards excellency. A second act between what may be the Big Ten’s two best teams pits the conference’s most clever coaches against one another – the latter claim being one that is hardly arguable. Dan Lanning’s squad is perfect but for a loss to the Hoosiers that opened much of the country’s eyes to just how special Indiana’s ascendance has been under Curt Cignetti. The Ducks are afforded an opportunity to exact revenge, but they’ll need to do it on the other side of the country, in a controlled climate and without the backing of a raucous home crowd.
Many point to a 17-yard touchdown pass with about eight minutes remaining in the third quarter of the Big Ten Championship Game as Fernando Mendoza’s “Heisman moment.” But I prefer to go back a bit further, to less than 13 minutes left in Indiana’s game in Eugene on October 11. Mendoza had just thrown an interception which Oregon took to the house, tying the game at 20 apiece. It felt like a massive turning point in a game between two teams with little to separate them. But what Mendoza did after that play was what truly earned him the Heisman, by my estimation. A 12-play, 75-yard drive taking six minutes and 19 seconds capped by an eight-yard touchdown pass by Mendoza Elijah Sarratt gave the Hoosiers a lead they did not surrender. The Hoosiers have faced adversity already this season. That’s not to say that Oregon hasn’t, but rather to say that Cignetti’s team will not be intimidated by the weight of being a favorite in this game. The Hoosiers are the only team this season outside of Texas Tech to hold Oregon under 100 yards rushing. The issue for the Red Raiders was that their offense wasn’t up to spec against the Ducks defense. We already know that Indiana can be. Oregon has the ability to keep this game very close if Dante Moore avoids turnovers and is similarly stingy on the defensive side. But Cignetti, Mendoza and his boys appear to be on a mission, and they’re perhaps the only team in the country that can’t be sidetracked by Riverboat Dan Lanning. Indiana has enough cleverness on its own sideline. It should be exciting, but the Hoosiers will get the job done in Atlanta and move on to play for a national title.
My Pick: 31-24 Indiana
Bowl Mania Confidence: 25 points
