Hopefully you’ve caught your breath after the whirlwind that was Week 1.
While technically not much different than any other week of the season, the newness of it all makes it feel different, and that along is enough to make you want a short break before we do it all over again.
We had some lopsided scorelines and some surprisingly close matchups, but save a few outliers things went pretty much to plan over the holiday weekend.
With that being said, you would have a hard time making that claim by looking at the predictions on Around The Corn last week.
The head-to-head pick ‘em records after Week 1 look like this:
K. Becks – 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Guests – 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
Put money on what’s written here at your own risk, folks.
This week, my buddy Coleman will look to get the guests back on the right track in the Straight Up category.
Before we dive into the slate for Week 2, let’s take a quick look at what we’ve learned thus far.
3 Things We Learned in Week 1
Yea, it is that bad in Tallahassee
Things have escalated quickly for Florida State, and not in a good way. The third letter in DJ U may as well stand for “Ugh”, because the performances from the fifth-year senior have been difficult to watch even from a neutral standpoint. It’s not just that his accuracy has been less than stellar (that’s been a consistent drawback of his game for his entire collegiate career) – it’s how far off some of the throws have actually been.
Not all the blame can be placed on Uiagalelei, though. The run defense has been abysmal, struggling immensely against the two mobile quarterbacks that it has faced thus far. While the Seminoles do get some respite from that the next few weeks, their Playoff chances appear to already be on life support.
And in Gainesville, too…
Somewhere there are prop bets gaining steam on who Billy Napier’s replacement at Florida will be. Napier can clearly feel the heat already, calling last weekend’s blowout loss to rival Miami “embarrassing” and admitting to the fact that there weren’t a lot of valid excuses to throw out after such a performance. Announcing that Graham Mertz will be replaced by DJ Lagway as starting quarterback for this coming weekend’s game against Samford isn’t so much a solution to any of the myriad of problems as it is an attempt to show that this coaching regime still has a pulse.
A win is a win is a win
Week 1 typically brings its fair share of blowout victories against overmatched competition, but there are always a few lackluster performances as well that can cause fans to prematurely make judgments. Oregon, Michigan and North Carolina State, all ranked teams, didn’t win pretty last weekend, but in the end, all got the “W” that prevented them from becoming another Florida State. As a reasonable college football fan, it is important not to overreact to one game (especially a win).
Each will have an excellent opportunity this weekend to completely rid from people’s memory those Week 1 performances, where rust is commonly an issue for mostly 18- to 22-year-olds that don’t have the luxury of a preseason to dial things in.
5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#3 Texas at #10 Michigan (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
The Longhorns started right where they left off last season, cruising to an easy, expected victory over Colorado State. Michigan didn’t fare quite as well against another Mountain West foe, struggling to pull away from Fresno State until the fourth quarter and raising some questions about the ability of the offense to move the ball through the air. Texas looked every bit the part of a true SEC team last weekend, displaying a combination of speed and raw talent on offense that should make the Michigan defensive coaching staff worried.
Michigan started Davis Warren at quarterback Week 1, and he was effective but uninspiring, tossing over half of his 15 completions and only touchdown pass to the same guy (tight end Colston Loveland). Loveland had an obvious physical advantage over the Fresno State defenders that he won’t enjoy against Texas, which will likely force Davis to spread the ball out more. Expect the Longhorns to be aggressive early with their pass rush and force Davis into proving his worth. It is daring to assert that any team would bully the Wolverines in the Big House, but I expect Texas to win this Top 10 tilt quite comfortably, if not on the scoreboard at least in the box score.
My Pick: 27-17 Texas (covers -7.5 spread)
Coleman’s Take: I was ready to call this the “Over-inflated Ego Bowl” but both of these teams backed up their superiority complexes with Playoff appearances last year (including a national championship win for Michigan). However, Michigan looks to have taken a small step back after losing a lot of offensive talent to the NFL draft. I’m picking Texas in a comfortable win, 34-20.
#17 Kansas State at Tulane (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
It may be 42 years since Tulane has notched a home victory over a ranked team, but in truth it is the Wildcats coming into this game looking for revenge, having lost in Manhattan the last time these two faced off (2022). That 2022 Green Wave squad was very different than the one that will take the field this Saturday afternoon, however, and it will be tough to upset one of the Big 12 title favorites for the second time in three seasons.
The Avery Johnson era has begun for Kansas State, and this will be the sophomore’s first true test of the season. Tulane’s defense is what gives the Green Wave a fighter’s chance at returning to the AAC title game, and it won’t be intimidated by Johnson dual-threat capabilities. I expect Tulane to try to slow this game down, limiting Johnson’s time with the football. When Kansas State does have the ball on offense, look for the Green Wave to try to contain Johnson within the pocket and slow down the running game in general. If Kansas State is able to move the football on the ground, either by Johnson or the stable of backs, it will be a long day for the home team.
My Pick: 28-21 Kansas State (does not cover -9 spread)
Coleman’s Take: A clash of cultures if there ever was one. Tulane has won so many hearts as one of the best G5 programs of the last few years, and KSU quarterback Avery Johnson struggled a bit last week. But I think Kansas State shakes off the rust and shows why they are favorites in the Big 12. Wildcats get it done: 27-17.
Iowa State at #21 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
Iowa’s 492 offensive yards and 40 points scored (more than six games combined in 2023) last weekend confirmed the obvious: that indeed, Brian Ferentz was the problem. Having quarterback Cade McNamara back healthy, who was excellent in the shutout victory, certainly doesn’t hurt, either. Seemingly strong on both sides of the football for the first time in years, Iowa can feel confident heading into this rivalry game, which while having been decided by 10 points or fewer in each of the last six seasons, hasn’t seen either side score more than 27 points in the last five seasons.
A key for Iowa State in this one will be to establish some sense of balance offensively, as it will likely be unable to walk away victorious with a heavily reliance on the passing game. Iowa’s secondary is one of the best in the country, but we likely didn’t see the true capability of the Cyclones’ run game in Week 1. If Matt Campbell’s team can get a push up front and keep the ball out of the hands of McNamara, Iowa State has a chance to make it two in a row in Iowa City. The 30-point mark will remain elusive in this game, but I think Iowa manages to defend its home turf this time around.
My Pick: 30-22 Iowa (covers -3 spread)
Coleman’s Take: The sickos pick of the week. Don’t let Iowa’s 40-point rout of Illinois State fool you. It was 6-0 at halftime of that game, and this in-state rivalry is always a close battle of field position, 3-yard runs, punting, interceptions, and more punting. I’m still picking Iowa in what will certainly be one of the games of the year. Final score: 13-9.
#14 Tennessee vs. #24 North Carolina State [game in Charlotte, NC] (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – ABC)
Kudos to the Duke’s Mayo marketing team, which managed to secure a college football “Classic” on Week 2 when every other similarly branded game was played during Week 1. This is a true neutral site contest, as both schools are within four hours of Charlotte and the fan bases are willing to travel. While a big game for both programs, it is massive for the Wolfpack in particular. At the moment Tennessee is the highest ranked team on North Carolina State’s schedule this season.
While the quarterback battle could be considered an Undercard, or maybe a Midcard, in my opinion it is the most important factor in this game. Grayson McCall is the three-time Sun Belt POY, but it was the redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava that looked like the potential Heisman candidate during Week 1. If the Wolfpack are to win this game, McCall will need to be more accurate downfield than he was against Western Carolina. North Carolina State gave up 241 yards through the air to the Catamounts, suggesting Iamaleava is poised for another excellent performance, but the Wolfpack’s secondary was fairly highly regarded coming into this season and there may have simply been some rust. In the end, I was impressed with what I saw from Tennessee and the Wolfpack left a lot to be desired in Week 1.
My Pick: 35-24 Tennessee (covers -9.5 spread)
Coleman’s Take: An intriguing matchup as Tennessee looks to claw its way to the top tier of the SEC and NC State brings back lots of experience to try and make a run at an ACC title and Playoff appearance. I’m just not sure I’m a believer in NC State quite yet, so I’m picking the Orange and White in this one, 38-28.
Boise State at #7 Oregon (Saturday, 10 PM ET – Peacock)
The Broncos were quite potent offensively last Saturday, posting 56 points (most of them necessary) on their way to victory over Georgia Southern. More specifically, Ashton Jeanty was a stud, scoring six touchdowns in the game, two more than anyone else in the country. The Ducks, on the other hand, were wholly unimpressive against FCS Idaho in a low-scoring 24-14 victory. It’s possible that Oregon was looking ahead to this week and the opponent that it has never beaten (0-3 against Boise State all-time).
The introduction of Jeanty may be just that for much of the country, but the truth is that the junior running back was poised for a breakout year after establishing himself as one of the best (albeit under the radar) in 2023. And while he will certainly be a handful for Oregon, I still feel obligated to give the Ducks a pass for their Week 1 performance. Despite a shaky start, this is still an offense capable of lighting up the scoreboard, and that seems probable against a Boise State defense that looked as weak as its offense was strong. The Ducks are also still putting the pieces they’ve gotten from the portal together. Dillon Gabriel should be able to slice up the secondary like Georgia Southern did, and the Ducks’ defense will be able to slow down Jeanty enough.
My Pick: 42-20 Oregon (covers -21 spread)
Coleman’s Take: The only athlete K. Becks might love more than Shawn Johnson is Ashton Jeanty, and why not? This dude scored SIX rushing touchdowns in a barnburner with Georgia Southern, and he has a chance to run all over an Oregon team which struggled to put away Idaho. I know I should be loyal to the Big Ten as a Midwesterner (even if the conference has literally expanded the definition of “Midwest”), and I know Oregon has more talent and more depth. But I have to go with my heart, not my head. Ashton Jeanty is HIM. I’m picking Boise in a nailbiter, 31-30.
5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
#23 Georgia Tech at Syracuse (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ACC Network)
Raise your hand if you had Georgia Tech being in the Top 25 after two games on your bingo sheet. Now put it down, liar. No one expected this, but the Yellow Jackets will need to find a way to slow down Kyle McCord, who looked more than competent against Ohio.
Coleman’s Take: On this blog we stan anyone named Kyle. Syracuse wins 24-14.
Northern Illinois at #5 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – NBC)
The Huskies posted a whopping 706 total yards of offense last weekend (third best in the country!) but will face a much stiffer test against Fighting Irish, which was as advertised defensively in College Station last weekend, notching arguably the most impressive victory of Week 1.
Coleman’s Take: Love me some MACtion but I have to be realistic. ND wins 45-17.
UT-San Antonio at Texas State (Saturday, 4 PM ET – ESPNU)
Neither team looked strong in unexpectedly close victories last weekend, but perhaps both were looking ahead to this one. Preseason, this was pegged as one of the top G5 out-of-conference matchups of the season, and can still be just that.
Coleman’s Take: MEEP. UTSA wins 35-31.
Colorado at Nebraska (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
The Buffaloes struggled at home against FCS North Dakota State, and now must travel to Lincoln to face a Cornhuskers squad that appears to be trending upwards with the addition of freshman phenom Patrick Mahomes (ahem, Dylan Raiola). The unbeaten streak may be short lived for Coach Prime.
Coleman’s Take: Unfortunately, Travis Hunter cannot play offensive line. Nebraska wins 31-17.
Appalachian State at #25 Clemson (Saturday, 8 PM ET – ACC Network)
The Clemson offense was anemic against Georgia last Saturday, particularly in the run game, an area where the Tigers are supposed to be quite potent. It may be a bounceback game against the Mountaineers, who were gashed for 183 on the ground last weekend, but don’t underestimate App State’s ability to hang with Dabo Swinney’s squad.
Coleman’s Take: Clemson wins in game that is too close for comfort, 21-17.
