The semifinals of the College Football Playoff are now set.
If you are surprised that none of the top four seeds in the Playoff survived the quarterfinals, this is a great time to remind you that all four lower seeds were favorites heading into their matchup over the past few days. We can debate the more subjective theories such as teams shaking off rust in the First Round in a different medium, because at the end of the day, what was projected to happen did.
We’re now left with two excellent matchups between college football bluebloods to decide who will play for the national title. Everyone, save fans of teams eliminated, is happy.
Before we get to the semifinal games, a few loose ends in Bowl Mania will be taken care of today and over the weekend.
Let’s take a look at the bowl games taking place on Friday.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
North Texas vs. Texas State (Friday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)
This game would have been an incredibly intriguing regular season matchup, but in bowl season it does feel a bit like we’re getting a shell of what this contest could have been were both teams at full strength. Both teams led their respective conference in total offense this season, though the North Texas unit that accomplished that will be at a significant disadvantage without quarterback Chandler Morris, wideout DT Sheffield and center Tyler Mercer, among others. Morris was the architect of an offense that was fourth in the country in passing yards per game (322.8), and in classic bowl game fashion will be replaced by a true freshman walk-on in Drew Mestemaker. As creative as Eric Morris may be as an offensive mind, getting the same level of production from Mestemaker as the quarterback Morris provided will be tough.
The Mean Green will potentially be thrown a lifeline if Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud is also out. Reports vary about how much, if at all, McCloud will play in this game, but similar to Chandler Morris, the Bobcats quarterback was instrumental in leading an offense that was seventh in the country in scoring (37.1 PPG). McCloud is adept with his legs as well, but if he doesn’t play then freshman Brad Jackson would be the logical choice to fill the role. Jackson is also a dual threat and North Texas’s defense is suspect at all levels. To some degree, the Bobcats had a disappointing year, as they came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt. North Texas plays in a better league, but really didn’t show much against the stronger competition it did play. With so many key pieces potentially absent, it’s tough to tell exactly what will happen in this game, but I have generally shifted to an approach of taking the team from the stronger conference in such circumstances. The Mean Green are a big underdog on paper, but I’ll roll with them anyway.
My Pick: 31-28 North Texas
Bowl Mania Confidence: 5 points
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech (Friday, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The Golden Gophers have won seven straight bowl games, currently the longest active streak in the country and the longest in Big Ten Conference history. The fact that P.J. Fleck has been part of five of those wins is no surprise – the coach is known for his “business-first” approach and has done a good job in Minneapolis of having his team prepared for every game, including bowl games that some programs would not consider particularly important. Fleck’s presence was certainly an underlying factor in Minnesota being pegged as a nearly double-digit favorite in this game, but numerous opt outs from the Virginia Tech side also played in a big hand in that. The Hokies are certainly going to be viewing this opportunity as a chance to evaluate what is on-hand for next season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
Freshman Pop Watson will run the point for Virginia Tech in this game, having played significant time in the Hokies’ final two regular season games as well. Watson is a dual threat option that may need to rely on his legs significantly in this game, as Minnesota was one of the better teams in the Big Ten against the pass this season. The Hokies will be without top running back Bhayshul Tuten, providing an opportunity for the Golden Gophers to rush Watson into bad throws if there is reduced effectiveness in the run game. Minnesota’s biggest absence will be left tackle Airontae Ersery, who was the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year, so Virginia Tech’s best bet in this game could be getting pressure on Minnesota and making the contest a defensive stalemate. With an opportunity to roll the dice a bit, I think Brent Pry’s squad will surprise some people and the younger players will be up for the challenge. Minnesota is going to try to do what you’d expect from them, and in my opinion they’re simply not good enough to roll over any team with that approach.
My Pick: 23-21 Virginia Tech
Bowl Mania Confidence: 8 points
