Let’s preview the Midwest Region.
Best First Round Matchups
#4 Purdue vs. #13 High Point (Thursday, 12:40 PM ET – truTV)
While the metrics don’t necessarily support it, High Point is a trendy pick to pull of a First Round upset. An upset it would truly be, as Purdue is one of the most efficient offenses in the country and features a first-team All-American in point guard Braden Smith. The Boilermakers are, however, all too familiar with the wrong side of a shocking result.
#5 Clemson vs. #12 McNeese State (Thursday, approx. 3:15 PM ET – truTV)
Another popular matchup that is finding traction as an upset opportunity, McNeese State has seemingly done more over the past two seasons to warrant such discussion. The Cowboys are experienced, bringing back a host of players played on last season’s Tournament squad, and battle-tested for a mid-major. Clemson was the only team in the ACC to beat Duke this season and well-coached to go along with solid guard play, so they’ll be anything but an easy out.
#3 Kentucky vs. #14 Troy (Friday, approx. 7:10 PM ET – CBS)
The last two times Kentucky was upset in the NCAA Tournament, it came as a No. 3 seed. On paper, Troy represents the best opportunity for a No. 14 seed to advance. The Wildcats are a bit banged up and the Trojans make you earn everything on the offensive end, so it wouldn’t be a shock at all if the Sun Belt champions made things uncomfortable for Mark Pope’s squad.
Team That Could Make a Run
Gonzaga
The Bulldogs are truly an anomaly as an eight seed. Mark Few’s bunch is a top 10 team in terms of adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom, the only such team in the top 10 to be ranked lower than a No. 3 seed. They also pass the eye test as a team that has the personnel to hang with higher seeded opponents, something that hasn’t been questioned of Few-coached teams in more than two decades.
Gonzaga represents a team that nobody will want to see opposite them in the bracket, but it’s really a shame that the Bulldogs were seemingly so underseeded. Had they been given a slightly higher seeding, this is a team that many would be realistically considering as a Final Four, and maybe national title, contender.
Buyer Beware
Kentucky
The Wildcats have made a recent habit of bowing out of the NCAA Tournament relatively early, including twice in the past three seasons as a No. 3 seed. While this isn’t advocating for yet another No. 14 over No. 3 upset, Kentucky’s stock is still heading in the wrong direction.
The injury bug hit the Wildcats at the wrong time, as both the second and third leading scorers, Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler, have been sidelined within the past month. Robinson is done for the year, but Kentucky will receive a boost by getting Butler back for the Tournament. Still, the turbulence caused by the shakeup in normal rotation, as well as mediocre finish to the regular season (6-4 in their last 10) might signal yet another early exit for Big Blue.
Remember The Name
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
Nembhard’s willingness to play unselfish basketball is unmatched. The nation’s leader in assists per game is the conductor of an offense that people may be surprised to learn is rated as the ninth most efficient in the country according to KenPom. No one else on Gonzaga averages more than 2.3 assists per contest, but five players average double-digits in points per game, including Nembhard. Without his distribution skills, the Bulldogs look very different offensively.
It should be noted that despite a relatively deep rotation, Mark Few trusts Nembhard to provide value across the entirety of a game. No one on Gonzaga’s roster averages more than 30 minutes per game, compared with Nembhard’s 35 minutes per game.
Chase Hunter, Clemson
Hunter’s relative anonymity is in large part due to the school that he plays for being known more for football than basketball. If he played for a more recognizable basketball brand, he may be one of the faces of the sport. The 6’4” senior guard has the ability to completely take over a game, as he did last week in leading Clemson to an ACC Tournament victory over SMU, scoring over 50 percent of his team’s second half points.
The ability to become Superman isn’t new, either. Hunter has performed well in March before, having led Clemson in points per game during last year’s run to the Elite 8. Perhaps this year he’ll garner the respect and attention that he absolutely deserves.
Braden Smith, Purdue
Smith is only a junior, but it feels like he has been a key piece for Purdue for longer. The first-team All-American is the beginning of almost everything that the Boilermakers do offensively, executing the pick-and-roll schematic as well as anyone in the country. His 8.7 assists per game are second nationally to Ryan Nembhard, but Smith arguably carries more weight in terms of Purdue’s scoring efforts than Nembhard does for Gonzaga.
The Boilermakers don’t come into this Tournament as strong as they did last season, but Smith’s leadership will be key for Matt Painter’s squad in terms of its survival and advancement.
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois
The 6’6” Lithuanian is exactly the type of player that we’ve come to learn that Brad Underwood can get the most out of while at the collegiate level. Jakucionis is not the rangiest, most athletic player on the court, but makes up for those limitations with exceptional intelligence, ball-handling and shot-making.
The pod that Illinois plays in this Tournament is filled with players that, frankly speaking, aren’t like Jakucuinis. This is arguably an advantage for the Illini, who will be happy to let their talented freshman frustrate more athletic opposition with his unique skillset that will ultimately translate well to the next level.
Around The Corn’s Picks
First Round
#1 Houston over #16 SIU-Edwardsville
#8 Gonzaga over #9 Georgia
#5 Clemson over #12 McNeese State
#13 High Point over #4 Purdue (upset alert)
#6 Illinois over #11 Xavier
#3 Kentucky over #14 Troy
#7 UCLA over #10 Utah State
#2 Tennessee over #15 Wofford
Second Round
#1 Houston over #8 Gonzaga
#5 Clemson over #13 High Point
#6 Illinois over #3 Kentucky (upset alert)
#2 Tennessee over #7 UCLA
Sweet 16
#1 Houston over #5 Clemson
#2 Tennessee over #6 Illinois
Elite 8
#1 Houston over #2 Tennessee
