It’s the dawn of a new era in the Mountain West – one in which it doesn’t have Boise State to naturally attract the attention of the casual college football viewer.
Boise State isn’t the only loss that the conference experienced over the summer (Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State also officially joined the Pac-12 in July), but certainly the most notable from a football perspective. In 15 seasons, Boise State won seven outright Mountain West titles, played in two New Year’s Six bowl games and is the only team from the conference to have qualified for the College Football Playoff. While the Broncos did have to pay an exit-fee settlement of around $10 million to leave the Mountain West, the longstanding effect on the conference is more staggering. It is estimated that Boise State’s football program is valued at around $90 million, tops amongst non-P4 programs.
All of this to say, a gaping hole was created over the summer. The Mountain West did its best to plug it, with North Dakota State (arguably the FCS version of Boise State) and Northern Illinois signing on to be members of the football conference beginning this season.
It’s not all gloom and doom, either. The conference appears quite strong this season, with a few teams poised to make a run at both a league title and perhaps become the first team that doesn’t play on blue turf to represent the Mountain West in the CFP. Situated advantageously in Las Vegas, UNLV is potentially a sleeping giant with a ready-made opportunity to pounce on with the departure of Boise State.
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UNLV
Dan Mullen did an excellent job maintaining the moment that Barry Odom built at this program before departing for the Purdue job, bringing in a number of P4 transfers to help notch back-to-back double digit win seasons for the first time in school history. Not surprisingly, such an approach typically requires the work to be done year in and year out, and Mullen has again brought in a talented crop of transfers that should have the team similarly potent offensively and potentially improved on the defensive side of the ball. Notably amongst this new group is former Oklahoma and Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold.
The Rebels must contend with a tough schedule which features an early trip to paradise and trips to Air Force and New Mexico which figure in some shape or form to decide the conference title game participants. On paper, at least, Mullen’s squad has the quality to manage the slate and make their way back to an astounding fourth straight Mountain West title game (astounding because just two years prior to current three-year run, UNLV finished 2-10). The conference is seeking a member to fill the large shoes left at the top thanks to the departure of Boise State, and the Rebels for more than one reason look like a prime candidate to do so.
Air Force
The Falcons have been notably down the past couple of years, for different reasons. Two seasons ago it was thanks to a youthfulness that ended up righting itself in the last several games. Last year it was a defense that didn’t quite find its footing until the final third of the season, when suddenly things began to click. This year there should be no excuses, with Air Force returning eight players from the defense that ended up coming around the back end of the 2025 campaign. From an experience perspective, the Falcons are well equipped at the most important offensive position, with two players that have started games over the past two years.
We should see a return of the type of squad that we have come to expect from Troy Calhoun. With so much returning on the defensive side, this is likely to be a difficult team to move the football on. Possessions should also come at a premium for the opposition, with Air Force’s presumed ability to keep drives going with a healthy and experienced backfield. The Falcons have been blessed by the scheduling gods, with a trip to Albuquerque for the season finale by far representing the toughest road test of the Mountain West slate. Anything less than a legitimate conference title run would be a disappointment for the Falcons, which appear to be done rebounding from those.
Hawai’i
The administration at Hawai’i was patient with Timmy Chang, and the Rainbow Warriors’ current head coach and legend from his playing days rewarded his alma mater for that by delivering a nine-win season in 2025 after knocking on the door of bowl eligibility the previous two seasons. With a proven competitor at quarterback in Micah Alejado, Hawai’i appears poised to continue building and could be a legitimate title contender in the Mountain West this season. Alejado gives the Rainbow Warriors an opportunity to be as potent as any offense in the league and Chang is entirely qualified to utilize his quarterback in the most effective way possible.
There could be some growing pains on the defensive side this season, but this program has always been known more for its offense and that should be the case in 2026. Hawai’i’s built in advantage of welcoming opponents to a distracting atmosphere may come in particular handy for a Mountain West title race, as fellow contenders UNLV and New Mexico both must travel to Oahu to take on the Rainbow Warriors. This team might not be as strong as some of the mid to late-2000s era Hawai’i teams that gained national attention, but it’s as good as the program has seen since then.
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Northern Illinois
The 2026 campaign was already going to be a tough one for the Huskies, which are making the transition from the MAC to the Mountain West, representing a step up in week-to-week competition (as well as a much more intense travel schedule). But things took an unexpected turn early in the year with the departure of then-head coach Thomas Hammock, thrusting defensive coordinator Rob Harley into the position of interim head coach. Harley was going to have his hands full as it was with no returning starters on his traditional side of the ball, but now must manage the entire room with a lot of unknowns surrounding it.
This is a proud program with a lot of pedigree, but the cards are stacked against it this year and I’m not sure any sized shoulder chip can truly overcome everything that it has been through in such a short amount of time. Anything beyond a couple of wins this season would be an accomplishment worthy of retaining Harley as head coach, but it’s hard to see Northern Illinois anywhere but the Mountain West cellar in its inaugural year with the league.
Embed from Getty ImagesPlayers To Watch
Jaxton Eck, New Mexico linebacker
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year in the Mountain West and preseason pick to go back-to-back on the award, Eck is a coach’s dream. It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, to learn that Eck is the son of New Mexico head coach Jason Eck. Growing up, the younger Eck played a multitude of positions on both sides of the ball and therefore naturally approaches the game like a quarterback. Playing the proverbial “quarterback of the defense” for the Lobos, Eck is a natural and vocal leader that was instrumental in New Mexico’s surprise turnaround sparked in large part by a run defense that went from near worst to first in the Mountain West in 2025.
Eck is all over the field and takes the role of “trashman” as seriously as he does his leadership role on the team, leading the defense with 129 tackles last season (second best in the conference). Expect all of that and more as Eck looks to help maintain a defensive structure that helped the Lobos improve by four wins over the previous season in 2025. New Mexico is again strong up the middle on defense but will need Eck to be similarly disruptive on the edges in 2026 to avoid taking a step back.
Jackson Arnold, UNLV quarterback
Dan Mullen did a nice job in his first year bringing in legitimate P4 talent to Las Vegas at the quarterback position with Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan) joining the program. Colandrea went on to have an excellent year for the Rebels and that type of loss would often be a major hole for a G6 squad the next season. Not the case for UNLV, as Coach Mullen has done it again by grabbing Jackson Arnold, an experienced player with starts at both Oklahoma and Auburn.
Arnold’s skillset fits the offense perfectly, with the mobility to extend plays and plenty of arm to make the necessary throws. However, perhaps the greatest strength he brings to the table will be his tenure at the collegiate level. UNLV is capable but very green particularly at wideout, and will need a guy like Arnold to bring that group along so that the offense can maintain the type of dominance it displayed last season. I don’t have any concerns about this happening for Mullen once again, and Arnold should be a Mountain West POY contender guiding the UNLV offense.
Liam Szarka, Air Force quarterback
Despite playing in only seven games last season, Szarka was tantalizingly close to becoming one of the rare 1,000 yard pass/1,000 yard rush guys in college football. His three straight games of at least 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing matched a feat last achieved at the FBS level by Lamar Jackson, and Szarka set a school record by rushing for at least 100 yards in five straight contests. In 2026, Szarka should be squarely on the watch list to join the 1,000/1,000 club provided he can stay healthy.
Szarka had an opportunity to weigh his options by entering the transfer portal, but decided against it and has proven his commitment to this program. It feels like a good fit, given his desire to someday be a fighter pilot. The 5’11” 190 pound quarterback also characterizes the team well, deploying a physical, contact-seeking running style that provides energy for the rest of the squad. If Air Force is to have the type of season I think they can, then Szarka will be a star beyond just the team, and potentially beyond the conference.
Micah Alejedo, Hawai’i quarterback
In the season opener against Stanford last season, I watched an injured Alejado confidently guide his offense down the field while on one good leg to set up a game-winning field goal. From that point forward, I knew that Timmy Chang had found a guy that he could win often with. Like Chang, Alejado is a gunslinger from Honolulu that understands the culture of the Hawai’i program well and is committed to improving it. Where Alejado outshines his mentor is with his accuracy, completing over 65 percent of his passes last season and showing brilliant accuracy at the high school level. He’s also more fleet of foot and adds an element of mobility that Chang never brought to the table during his career.
When you turn on a Hawai’i football game, you expect to be entertained, particularly on the offensive end. Alejedo provides the spark that allows the Rainbow Warriors to deliver on that expectation, and his maturity from having a full season of starting experience under his belt should help Alejedo take the logical step towards becoming one of the Mountain West’s most important players in 2026.
Jackson Williams, North Dakota State WR/KR/PR
I list Williams at three positions, not to belabor the fact but because his inclusion on this list stems from success in all three areas. In 2025 he was one of three players in D1 to record a receiving, kick return and punt return touchdown. Known more for his explosiveness and cutback ability than straight line speed, Williams is still freakishly athletic, with a vertical jump measurement that has him on the radar of NFL scouts.
North Dakota State is making the jump up from FCS, must break in a new quarterback and is generally speaking looking for a go-to player at the wideout position. Williams doesn’t immediately come to mind to fill the gap presented by the third point, but is versatile enough to play a role as a primary receiver and help the Bison compete in a multitude of ways. Don’t be shocked if you know this guy’s name but simultaneously have trouble finding him on the field during games – he’s certainly still a valuable piece to his team.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Conference)
UNLV at Hawai’i (September 5)
A “Week 1” tilt that simultaneously serves as a massive Mountain West showdown. The Rebels are one of the favorites to win the conference but must travel to the island to start the league campaign 1-0, while Hawai’i faces arguably its toughest opponent in the year in this one. The week was previously in quotations, as each team does kick off its season the week prior.
UNLV at Air Force (October 17)
This may be the first real test of Air Force’s capability to make a run at the Mountain West title. The Falcons figure to be stronger defensively this season, and will need to be to contain a UNLV team that should boast one of the more potent offenses in the entire country.
New Mexico at Hawai’i (October 17)
The Rainbow Warriors are fortunate that they get to host arguably the two best teams in the Mountain West this season. On the other hand, the Rainbow Warriors have to play arguably the two best teams in the Mountain West this season. Hawai’i will need to win at least one of them, it seems, to have a realistic shot at playing in the conference title game.
UNLV at New Mexico (November 14)
If things go as planned, then this monster battle will feel like a conference title altering affair. The 2025 edition was high scoring, and with UNLV’s projected offensive potency and question marks about parts of the New Mexico defense, we could be headed for a similar story this season.
Air Force at New Mexico (November 28)
The season finale for both teams may end up representing massive stakes in terms of the Mountain West title game. Last year’s 20-3 victory for New Mexico was an unusually low scoring affair for this series, and probably won’t replicate itself in 2026. Expect more offense and a closer score this year.
Embed from Getty ImagesGames to Watch (Non-Conference)
New Mexico at Oklahoma (September 19)
Given the season that New Mexico had last year and its returning production on offense, the Sooners will need to come to play to avoid an eye-opening upset at home. The Lobos will need to quickly find an answer for lost pieces on the defensive edge to truly have a chance in this one, though.
North Dakota State at Sacramento State (September 19)
Call it the “Welcome to FBS Bowl” – the Bison and Hornets are the two members joining college football’s premier division in 2026. Given that North Dakota State had a longer planning runway, it figures to be more competitive at this level in its inaugural season, but even so this feels like one of the better opportunities for Sacramento State to add to the win column this year.
California at UNLV (October 3)
Despite never meeting prior to 2022, this is now the third time in five years that the Golden Bears and Rebels will face off against one another. Despite the P4/G6 separation, the series has felt pretty even and both teams will feel confident about the prospects of a victory here. UNLV has to travel to Ohio the week prior, but Cal will also likely be recovering (from a game against Clemson).
Navy at Air Force (October 3)
The Falcons haven’t won a game in the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy series since 2023 and haven’t won the trophy outright since 2022, but both streaks have a great shot at being snapped in 2026. We have chronicled it being Air Force’s best team in years and as a result all the games between the service academies should be excellent watches this season.
Embed from Getty ImagesAw, Shuck It (3 Bets to Place)
*odds via DraftKings at time of publication. Around The Corn is not responsible for lost bets!
Air Force Reaches Mountain West Championship Game (+250)
Vegas appears to be sleeping on the Falcons, rating them the fifth most likely team in the conference to play for a league title. With the number of pieces coming back from a team that improved greatly the back half of the year, Air Force has the quality to compete.
North Dakota State Makes College Football Playoff (+1500)
All the Bison do is make the playoffs, right? It has, amazingly, been 17 seasons since North Dakota State last missed a postseason it was eligible for, and even as first-year members of FBS are projected to be one of the top teams to win the Mountain West.
Northern Illinois Under 2.5 Wins (+200)
Kicking a team when it’s already down feels unfair, but the Huskies figure to struggle mightily in 2026 with its new conference, associated travel schedule and, generally speaking, new team (from players to coaching).
Embed from Getty ImagesPredictions
- Air Force (10-2, [7-1])
- UNLV (10-2, [6-2])
- Nevada (7-5, [5-3])
- New Mexico (8-4, [5-3])
- Hawai’i (7-5, [5-3])
- North Dakota State (8-4, [4-4])
- Wyoming (6-6, [3-5])
- San Jose State (3-9, [2-6])
- Northern Illinois (2-10, [1-7])
- UTEP (2-10, [1-7])
Conference Title Game
UNLV at Air Force
Champion: Air Force
