Outside of a couple of groups featuring tournament hosts, Group F is the most balanced group in the tournament. Any one of three teams could realistically win the group and it wouldn’t raise a ton of eyebrows, and all four have the ability to advance to the knockout rounds.
The group stage matches will be critical in determining whether there is a real cup contender within this quartet. On paper it feels like there is talent on every squad, but in practice very few are predicting a particularly deep run by any of these nations.
Will Group F be competitive but otherwise forgotten? Only time will tell.
The Teams
Embed from Getty ImagesJapan
Best Case Scenario
Japan is often expected to fare well in comparison to other Asian squads that qualify for a World Cup, and on the surface expectations should be exceptionally high for this year’s tournament. Japan has reached the highest level by an Asian nation (No. 18) in the FIFA world rankings heading into the summer.
However, the philosophy of team first play will be put to the test, as Japan suffered some unfortunate setbacks to key pieces ahead of the tournament. That said, the ranking may not be indicative of this team’s true strength at the moment. However, if there is a team most likely to overcome the loss of individual talent in this year’s World Cup, Japan is a strong candidate.
Realistic Expectation
Even if captain Wataru Endo is not 100 percent healthy, the midfield remains the strength of this squad and can give every team in the group trouble. The entire group plays its club soccer in Europe and the spread amongst caps and goals of the group is impressive.
Getting out of the group should be expected. Recall in 2018, Japan nearly ousted a Belgium team that went on to finish third place in that World Cup. This year’s squad should be similarly competitive in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Embed from Getty ImagesNetherlands
Best Case Scenario
Always the bridesmaid but never (yet) the bride, Oranje have been knocking on the door of soccer’s biggest prize, finishing runner-up in the tournament three times (most recently in 2014). This feels like as good a time as any to get behind the Netherlands, which possess experience that has been in big spots before (Virgil Van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Wout Weghorst, Memphis Depay) to go along with a younger crop (Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch, Jurriën Timber) that will ensure upcoming tournaments are successful as well.
The roster is sufficiently stocked to ensure that the Dutch can navigate an extra game getting to a potential Final, and if all goes well they won’t have to expend a ton of energy to get out of the group. Get the white dress ready just in case, because it may look good combined with Orange in 2026.
Realistic Expectation
Anything less than a trip to the quarterfinals would be a disappointment, not only because this squad has the talent to get there but because so many key pieces are likely playing in their last major tournament before moving on from the national team.
The ability to bridge the gap is already there, but for guys like Van Dijk the time is now (or never). His leadership can go a long way to help push the younger guys the extra step that will at some point be needed if Oranje is to indeed lift the trophy.
Embed from Getty ImagesSweden
Best Case Scenario
Sorry, soccer causals – Zlatan Ibrahimović isn’t playing anymore (he’s providing commentary for the tournament, though). In his place isn’t really as much a main man as it is a three-headed monster featuring Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak and Anthony Elanga. The trio mentioned together will make viewers of the Premier League excited, and opposing backlines quiver.
Get these guys the ball in the box and Sweden will be a real problem. Like, “win the group and pose a problem for the runner-up of Group C” problem. Not a bad potential future for a team that needed UEFA qualification playoffs to end up in the States for the summer.
Realistic Expectation
Sometimes qualification results are just a blip on the radar, but in the case of Sweden it suggests a real issue. For as much frontline talent as the Swedes have, it certainly didn’t show up at the tail end of 2025. From September 8 to November 15, Sweden lost twice to both Kosovo and Switzerland, scoring one goal in those four matches.
What saved Graham Potter’s squad is changing the approach, favoring a counterattacking style in favor of a possession-based attack. It is difficult to say whether this philosophy will work against the likes of the Netherlands and Japan, suggesting Sweden’s realistic result is somewhere between surprising group winner and disappointing (boring) flameout.
Embed from Getty ImagesTunisia
Best Case Scenario
In a group marked by European competition with plenty of frontline power and the Japanese’s controlling midfield, Tunisia stands as the lone participant that will look to rely primarily on its defense to achieve results.
Many a historic upset have been thanks to such an approach, though the Eagles of Carthage made history as the first-ever African nation to win a World Cup match in 1978 by flexing offensive muscle, when it beat Mexico 3-1. Don’t expect that in 2026. A herculean defensive effort across more than 90 minutes will be required to give Tunisia any shot at moving out of the group stage.
Realistic Expectation
There is blood in the water here, and the sharks in the group know it. Expect both the Netherlands and Sweden to try to get out on the front foot early against Tunisia, which doesn’t have the playmaking ability up front to achieve results easily when playing from behind.
Qualification efforts would suggest that Tunisia has one of the better defensive approaches in the tournament, but there is a lot to contend with in this group that you just don’t see in CAF.
Matches to Watch
Embed from Getty ImagesNetherlands vs. Japan (June 14 – 4 PM ET)
Japan’s disciplined approach and strength in the midfield presents a difficult challenge for cup contenders Netherlands, which struggled in a recent friendly against an Algeria team that was able to execute its plan to perfect against the Dutch.
Japan vs. Sweden (June 25 – 7 PM ET)
The star power of Sweden will seek to overwhelm the more team-oriented style of Japan in the final matchday of Group F.
Predictions (Bold Advance to Knockout Stage)
Embed from Getty Images1. Netherlands
2. Japan
3. Sweden
4. Tunisia
