Let’s preview the Midwest Region.
Embed from Getty Images
Best First Round Matchups
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron (Friday, 12:40 PM ET – truTV)
This being a 5/12 matchup already makes it intriguing, but the loss of JT Toppin for the season has really impacted Texas Tech being viewed as a team that could be on the wrong side of a First Round upset. Since their 6’9” star went down the Red Raiders are just 3-3 and dropped their final three games heading into the Tournament.
To make matters worse, Akron isn’t just a random mid-major this season. The strongest team in the MAC from a metrics perspective, the Zips will look to make Texas Tech uncomfortable by pushing the pace and launching regularly from behind the arc (No. 26 nationally in terms of three pointers attempted per game). Solid guard play gives Akron a legitimate shot at being this year’s Cinderella.
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra (Friday, approx. 3:15 PM ET – truTV)
Even before the news about Aden Holloway surfaced earlier this week, the Pride were on our list as a potential Cinderella. But Holloway’s absence does throw a wrench into the plans of Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide, who will be without their second leading scorer and best three-point shooter for the Tournament.
If you’re someone who is intrigued by games with stark differences in pace preference, then this is the matchup of the First Round for you. The gap between Alabama’s No. 4 pace and Hofstra’s No. 317 pace as measured by KenPom is the widest gap by far in confirmed matchups.
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara (Friday, 12:15 PM ET – CBS)
The 7/10 matchups have become almost as close to being “pick em” games as the 8/9 ones are, and this is yet another example where it seems to be the case. Santa Clara is not your average mid-major team, with enough size to give the Wildcats real trouble. Given that length and size of the Broncos, this will resemble another SEC game for Kentucky.
The Wildcats showed fight in the SEC Tournament and feature good guard play amongst the trio of Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen and Colin Chandler. However, the size of Santa Clara and their preference to draw contact near the rim might force Kentucky into foul trouble. It doesn’t take too many absences on Kentucky’s side for the Broncos to have the better five on the floor outright.
Embed from Getty Images
Team That Could Make a Run
Virginia
Head coach Ryan Odom hasn’t won a game in the NCAA Tournament since his UMBC Retrievers shocked the world in 2018 but appears to have a good chance of enjoying an extended stay in this year’s Big Dance. The Cavaliers have flown almost entirely under the radar this season, but took care of business in all but a couple of games (other three losses to Duke and North Carolina) and have extensive experience on a neutral court, going 5-2 in such contests.
If taking care of business is Virginia’s specialty, then a trip to Chicago for the second weekend feels like a good bet and could set up a heavyweight battle with Iowa State. The Cyclones have garnered more attention this season but the Cavaliers are slightly more consistent. Similar pace preferences makes that potential matchup really difficult to predict.
Embed from Getty Images
Buyer Beware
Michigan
The Wolverines have proven at times to be the most dominant team in the country this season, and they are by all accounts still a serious threat to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. But the inconsistency that has been exhibited at points leaves room for concern. Guard play is part of the formula for winning in March and it can be the Achilles heel for this Michigan team. At what point, if any, will turnovers (12.0 per game average, No. 233 in the country) come back to bite Dusty May’s squad?
Not much has been made of the injury to L.J. Cason, and so far it hasn’t really hurt the Wolverines. But going back to the comment about guard play, Michigan has more depth of front and Cason’s absence may finally become apparent when the stakes are the highest. If it’s national title or bust for this team, we think it’s worth staying away from this bubble.
Embed from Getty Images
Remember The Name
Aday Mara, Michigan
The 7’3” Spainard reminds many Big Ten basketball fans of another massive center that recently played in the league – one that led his team to a national championship game appearance a couple of years ago. Though Mara doesn’t spend as much time on the court as Zach Edey did his final two seasons at Purdue, Michigan’s big man is just as imposing, particularly on the defensive end. His 2.6 blocks per game are actually better than Edey managed in any collegiate season, and one of the reasons why Michigan is the country’s most efficient defensive team.
On the offensive end, Mara has improved his footwork throughout the season and is becoming increasingly frustrating for the opposition to deal with, if only because they don’t have anyone who can truly match Mara’s size. He is the type of player that you love if he’s on your team, and curse if he’s not.
Tavari Johnson, Akron
If the Zips are to wear the glass slipper this March, then Johnson will become a household name within the first several days of the Tournament. The 6’ guard is the catalyst for an up-tempo Akron offense that gets most of its production from guards. As a scorer, he leads the team with 20.2 PPG and can create his own shot. He is also adept as a distributor and leads the team in assists per game.
Strong guard play is often a key to upset specials, and Johnson is the best that the Zips have at their expense. Against a Texas Tech team that is searching for answers without their transfer portal star, a guy who has spent four seasons with the same program may orchestrate the storybook ending that this sport often produces.
Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State
Despite standing at just 6’1”, Lipsey has pro level potential thanks to a combination of quick feet and hands and high basketball IQ. Lipsey is Iowa State’s distributor, ensuring that the ball quickly finds its way to the right player on a roster that is dominated by bigger players that operate well around the basket.
Lipsey plays the role of an unsung hero, often ceding the spotlight to teammates and nowhere to be found in EvanMiya’s analytics evaluating the best two through five-man combinations that have shared the court for the Cyclones this season. However, this much is true – without the hometown kid, Iowa State doesn’t reach its potential in this Tournament.
Embed from Getty Images
Around The Corn’s Picks
First Round
#1 Michigan over #16 Howard
#9 Georgia over #8 Saint Louis
#12 Akron over #5 Texas Tech (upset alert)
#13 Hofstra over #4 Alabama (upset alert)
#6 Tennessee over #11 SMU/Miami (OH)
#3 Virginia over #14 Wright State
#10 Santa Clara over #7 Kentucky (upset alert)
#2 Iowa State over #15 Tennessee State
Second Round
#1 Michigan over #9 Georgia
#12 Akron over #13 Hofstra
#3 Virginia over #6 Tennessee
#2 Iowa State over #10 Santa Clara
Sweet 16
#1 Michigan over #12 Akron
#2 Iowa State over #3 Virginia
Elite 8
#2 Iowa State over #1 Michigan
