Let’s preview the South Region.
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Best First Round Matchups
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese State (Thursday, approx. 3:15 PM ET – truTV)
Vanderbilt’s surprise run in the SEC Tournament was rewarded with a date to face perhaps the strongest mid-major not named Gonzaga over the past three seasons. No Will Wade, no problem for the Cowboys, which are looking to build upon last year’s success in the Big Dance. McNeese State is familiar with this spot, too, having won a game as a 12 seed last in 2025.
The Cowboys are very opportunistic defensively, sitting at second in the country with 10.5 steals per game. They’ll try to force Vanderbilt into being uncharacteristically lax with the basketball, as McNeese State tends to run a guard-centric lineup and may struggle to contain the Commodores without causing turnovers.
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy (Thursday, 12:40 PM ET – truTV)
The Cornhuskers have had an excellent season under the guidance of Fred Hoiberg and will be looking to capture the program’s first ever Tournament victory. It won’t come easy against this Troy squad, which is built to compete with Power conference teams, possessing the size and toughness to bang with its Big Ten opponent.
Neither team is likely to push the pace and so this game could very well play into the hands of Troy, which loves a heavyweight prizefight. Its guards have size and can get to the basketball off the dribble, but Nebraska is one of the most efficient defensive squads in the country. This point further supports the theory that this one is likely to end up a low scoring, tight affair.
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU (Thursday, 6:50 PM ET – TNT)
The loss of Caleb Wilson cannot be overstated for the Tar Heels. The 6’10” freshman is undoubtedly North Carolina’s most talented player and led the team in every major offensive category before going down with a thumb injury that prematurely ended his season. But pinning whatever happens in this game on Wilson alone isn’t fair or accurate, because VCU is a very good team in its own right.
In fact, the Rams are ranked higher in EvanMiya’s Relative Ranking, which is effectively a measure of total team strength. Phil Martelli’s team is balanced and boasts a lot of size and athleticism that would’ve been a handful for North Carolina even if Wilson were healthy. This is a very popular upset pick in brackets and for good reason.
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Team That Could Make a Run
Vanderbilt
The Commodores started the season and ended the regular season hot, climbing into the top 10 with a 16-0 start and finishing by winning four of five (including a convincing victory over Florida) en route to an SEC Tournament title game appearance. Vanderbilt does a little bit of everything well, shooting at a decent clip, taking care of the rock and in crunch time, closing out games with discipline at the charity stripe (No. 4 in the country in FT%).
The guard combo of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles is dangerous offensively and has elevated Vanderbilt to becoming a top 10 team in the country in terms of offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The path to the Sweet 16 looks relatively clean, at which point the Commodores may get yet another opportunity to play the top seeded Gators. Based on the way that Vanderbilt plays, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Commodores were to send the regular season SEC champ packing yet again.
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Buyer Beware
North Carolina
The blueblood branding is really the only thing that prevents the Tar Heels from being the target of the Tournament in terms of lower seed vulnerability in the First Round. The Caleb Wilson injury was already discussed earlier, and that’s a huge deal. But the talent of VCU doesn’t help, either. Said another way, North Carolina was dealt a tough hand for a team that finished the regular season in the top quarter of the ACC and the Top 25.
The bottom half of the South Region could prove to be murderer’s row as the Tournament carries on, affording the Tar Heels little reprieve if they were to get past the Rams on Thursday evening. Brand names are sometimes a great way to ride a differential when it comes to bracket predictions, but North Carolina doesn’t feel like one to back in 2026.
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Remember The Name
Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
Tanner has had a breakout sophomore season for the Commodores, which can lend much of the success that they’ve had on the offensive side of the ball to the 6’ guard’s maturation. Despite his relatively diminutive stature and slight frame, Tanner has come up big for Vanderbilt this season thanks to smooth ballhandling and an improvement in his shooting skills.
The Commodores are one of the country’s more efficient offenses and it runs through Tanner. McNeese State is a popular upset pick once again but has a difficult assignment in slowing this guy down.
Andrej Stojakovic, Illinois
The son of NBA great Peja Stojakovic has been all over the country during his time in college (previously at Stanford and Cal) but has found a proper home in Champaign which allows him to showcase his offensive talents more regularly on the national level. The younger Stojakovic plays with an incredibly talented cast at Illinois but still manages to feature in an offense that has five players averaging double digits in scoring.
Unlike his father, Andrej prefers to move inward from the three-point line and is adept at finding space near the basket off the dribble. After missing the Big Dance in his first two seasons, he’ll finally get a chance to make a run in March, which will ultimately mean many flashbacks to his famous father if it happens.
Emanuel Sharp, Houston
Sharp is the elder statesman on a younger Houston roster, one of four seniors on the squad and one of just two that has spent his entire collegiate career with Kelvin Sampson. While Sharp has ceded the role of go-to scorer to freshman phenom Kingston Flemings, if the Cougars are to make it back to the national title game to take care of unfinished business it will be Sharp’s leadership that gets them there.
Houston is molded a bit differently than many of the Sampson teams of the past, trading some of its defensive efficiency and intensity for more juice offensively. Sharp has been with his head coach long enough to understand that it takes discipline on both sides of the ball to advance far in the Tournament, and will keep his young teammates accountable.
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Around The Corn’s Picks
First Round
#1 Florida over #16 Lehigh/Prairie View A&M
#8 Iowa over #9 Clemson
#5 Vanderbilt over #12 McNeese State
#13 Troy over #4 Nebraska (upset alert)
#11 VCU over #6 North Carolina (upset alert)
#3 Illinois over #14 Penn
#10 Texas A&M over #7 Saint Mary’s (upset alert)
#2 Houston over #15 Idaho
Second Round
#1 Florida over #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt over #13 Troy
#3 Illinois over #11 VCU
#2 Houston over #10 Texas A&M
Sweet 16
#5 Vanderbilt over #1 Florida (upset alert)
#2 Houston over #3 Illinois
Elite 8
#2 Houston over #5 Vanderbilt
