Saturday was a wild day, and you’re not alone if it felt difficult to keep track of all the teams that were clinching bids to the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
Of those bids, eight of them went to teams that could qualify as this year’s Cinderella.
We’ll take a look at them all here, with a bit more clarity in terms of outlook than we’ve had over the past week. Now that the bracket has officially been set, there are no more “projected” seedings – only an indication of what seed each team was given.
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America East
Automatic Bid: UMBC
Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
It’s dangerous to doubt the first program to upset a one seed as a No. 16, as the Retreivers did eight years ago. But catching lightning in a bottle once is tough enough. Doing it twice would be incredible.
UMBC drew a First Four matchup in the upcoming Tournament, meaning that a one seed awaits only after a victory in Dayton. That first game will be difficult enough, but greeting the victors of it is Michigan. The Retreivers don’t appear to have the offensive firepower or athleticism to bother the Wolverines, though the pace contrast could be something that UMBC uses to its advantage.
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Mid-Eastern Athletic
Automatic Bid: Howard
Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
Speaking of UMBC’s First Four opponent, the Howard Bison will be vying for the opportunity to play Michigan a couple of days later. Unlike UMBC, the Bison have been to Dayton before, falling in a First Four game in 2024.
Howard likes to play an up-tempo game but isn’t the most efficient offense, which is a contrast of styles to what it will face against the Retrievers. The Bison feature good guard play with four of them averaging double digits in points. Trying to beat Michigan at the Wolverines’ game is unlikely to be a recipe for success, however.
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Mountain West
Automatic Bid: Utah State
Seed: 9
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Mountain West had its fingerprints all over the Bubble Watch heading into Championship Week but managed to get just one team into the Tournament, the first time it hasn’t been a multi-bid league since 2017. The lone representative for the league is a good one, though.
The Aggies have length and athleticism that rivals many of the Power 4 conference teams in this Tournament. Guards MJ Collins and Mason Falslev can both go get a bucket and as a team the Aggies right outside the top 50 in terms of assists per game. Unfortunately, seeding often penalizes the best of the best in the Mountain West. Being a No. 9 seed dictates that Utah State take down No. 1 overall seed Arizona to become a Cinderella. Not impossible, but seemingly unlikely.
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Southwestern Athletic
Automatic Bid: Prairie View A&M
Seed: 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Panthers have already tried on the glass slipper, and it fit! At least, it has so far this March. Finishing eighth in the SWAC during the regular season, Prairie View A&M ripped off an unlikely run in College Park, Georgia to capture the league’s automatic bid with an unassuming 18-17 overall record.
Byron Smith’s group is hot, winning nine of its last 10 as it heads into the Big Dance. The metrics aren’t impressive, but there are 11 other teams in the SWAC and many others across the country that would love the opportunity that the Panthers have in front of them. Chances seem good, though, that they’ll have to give back the glass slipper fairly early on into the Tournament.
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Mid-American
Automatic Bid: Akron
Seed: 12
Cinderella Probability: Decent
Other teams receiving bids from the conference: Miami (OH)
All of the negative energy about the RedHawks from fans of other MAC schools has generally been proven to be wasted effort, as the conference is a multi-bid league for the first time since 1999. Miami will be there, but so will the Zips, who by many accounts boast the league’s most talented squad.
Akron is a handful offensively, ranking ninth in the country in PPG (88.4), No. 17 in assists per game (18.4) and No. 21 in three-point shooting percentage (37.9). Four players average double digits in points per game but the Zips have a definite go-to player in clutch moments in guard Tavari Johnson. As a No. 12 seed Akron is going to be looked at as a popular upset pick in the First Round, but has the talent to go even further than that. It very well could be third time’s a charm for the team that has been looking for an NCAA Tournament victory every year since 2024.
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Conference USA
Automatic Bid: Kennesaw State
Seed: 14
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The fact that the Owls were relative underdogs to capture the Conference USA auto-bid to the Tournament doesn’t accurately paint the picture about why a victory in the NCAA Tournament is so unlikely. Rather, it’s because of their opponent.
Kennesaw State drew a program (and coach) that knows all too well the recipe to be a Cinderella. But focusing on this season’s team in particular, Gonzaga is one of the best defensive teams in the country and understands how to neutralize the fast pace that the Owls will try to dictate. It’s not a good matchup for Antoine Pettway’s team and looks like a one and done situation in the Big Dance.
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Big West
Automatic Bid: Hawai’i
Seed: 13
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
Similarly to Kennesaw State, the Rainbow Warriors were given a tall task for their First Round assignment. Hawai’i has relied on strong defensive efforts to frustrate its opponents this season, but the team doesn’t shoot the ball well and has struggled with turnovers this season.
Contrastly, Arkansas is one of the best shooting teams in the country and is top 10 in the nation for fewest turnovers per game. Collectively the Rainbow Warriors are solid on the defensive end, but stopping a guy like SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff, Jr. isn’t something that they have had to do much this season.
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Western Athletic
Automatic Bid: California Baptist
Seed: 13
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Lancers are one of two programs making their first ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament and hoping to make it longer than a one game stay. While California Baptist doesn’t typically light up the scoreboard, it does have one player who is as dangerous a scorer as any in the country. Dominique Daniels, Jr. is No. 8 in the country averaging 22.6 PPG and at 5’10” is fascinating to watch.
Kansas hasn’t been playing particularly well lately and presumed lottery pick Darryn Peterson is a bit of an enigma right now, which opens the door for a player like Daniels and a team like California Baptist to be Tournament darlings. The game may be a defensive battle played at a slower pace, which is an environment the Lancers will be comfortable within.
