Ready for a breather?
If you are having trouble keeping up with all the auto-bids that have been pouring in over the past several days, a reprieve is upon us.
No tickets will be punched to the Big Dance on Thursday or Friday. Officially, at least. The games being played throughout the next couple of days across the country will have an important impact on shaping the Bubble.
What this all means is that the Cinderella Casting series will take a short pause after this article.
But before we catch our breath, we’ll take a look at a few more teams that will be dancing next week from the Southland, Patriot League and Big Sky Conference.
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Southland
Automatic Bid: McNeese State
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Cinderella Probability: Decent
The Cowboys just booked their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. To drive home how impressive that feat is for a program that has just five appearances all-time, consider that Kansas is tied for the fifth longest streak in the country with six appearances (soon to be seven). Additionally impressive is that McNeese State kept the streak intact following a coaching transition, with Will Wade leaving for North Carolina State after last season. Bill Armstrong was fortunate to retain some production from the previous squads, perhaps most notably Javohn Garcia, who has been with the program for all three of these magical seasons for the Cowboys.
Guys like Garcia have a proven ability to go off offensively (like he did in the conference title game), but Armstrong has maintained a disciplined approach on the defensive end that truly characterizes this team. McNeese State is a top 50 team in defensive efficiency and this counters a tendency to play worse against good competition according to Evan Miya’s Opponent Adjust metric. The Cowboys are guard-centric and deep rotationally, with 10 players averaging double digit minutes per game. This is how the team stays fresh and can deploy a relentless defensive style that ranks second in the country in steals (10.5 SPG).
McNeese State has been a popular Cinderella choice for those filling out brackets the prior two seasons, and 2026 should be no different. The Cowboys are absolutely capable of pulling off an upset or two next week.
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Patriot
Automatic Bid: Lehigh
Projected Seed: 15 or 16
Cinderella Probability: Very Unlikely
The Mountain Hawks are a lesson in persistence, as the team started the year 4-11 but finished on an 8-1 tear to capture the Patriot League bid, the program’s first since 2012. Notable about that last appearance is that as a No. 15 seed, Lehigh knocked off Duke in one of the bigger upsets in Tournament history. Can the Mountain Hawks capture lightning in a bottle again?
To make it happen, leading scorer Nasir Whitlock will need to do his best CJ McCollum impression. The 6’2” junior Whitlock is a natural scoring guard who can produce offensively in a multitude of ways (47% FG percentage, 44% from behind the arc). His 21 PPG place him No. 18 nationally, though he also leads the team in assist per game (3.4) as well. On the surface, it seems like there is a lot to like about the Mountain Hawks offensively, with Whitlock and support that sees three other players averaging double digits in PPG. However, the underlying numbers suggest that Lehigh will be one of the least efficient offenses in the Tournament, which means keeping pace with a high seed could be tough.
Lehigh challenged itself with its non-conference schedule and won’t be intimated by its opposition, but early season results against power conference competition this season are likely indicative of how things will go for the Mountain Hawks in March as well.
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Big Sky
Automatic Bid: Idaho
Projected Seed: 15 or 16
Cinderella Probability: Unlikely
The Vandals haven’t been to the Big Dance since 1990. The 36-year gap since last their Tournament appearance is currently the longest in the field (one previous appearance minimum), and one that seemed like a pipedream less than a week ago. Needing to win four games in five days was the task of Idaho, which was accomplished in style, winning three of those games by double digits. Starch Madness, indeed.
Idaho has a good balance of offensive production spread amongst experience guards and a frontcourt with some size. The scoring efforts are led by freshman Jackson Rasmussen (13.9 PPG), though a number of players can get to the basket including Biko Johnson, who has a knack for getting to the rim off the dribble. The Vandals have found a way to remain reasonably efficient offensively this season despite not having exceptional assist figures, but that’s a big question mark for this team heading into the Big Dance. Against more athletic defenses, Idaho may have difficulty getting good looks in the areas of the court where they have found success.
The hot streak and associated momentum do count for something, but the Vandals look like a team that is bound for a one and done effort in the Tournament.
