I always feel a bit badly for the teams that draw a bowl game which occurs after the majority of Playoff games have concluded.
Yes, the game technically means just as much as the other non-Playoff contests that occurred prior to the major ones, but the fan involvement outside tends to fade quickly after the ball has dropped in Times Square.
The sickos out there are already well aware and beginning the grieving process, but for the casuals, it may be lost on them that January 2 is the last full day of college football for the season.
Let’s take a look at the full Friday slate.
Embed from Getty ImagesLockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs. Texas State (Friday, 1 PM ET – ESPN)
The Sun Belt’s top offense will take on a Rice squad that is effectively a lite version of the service academies, employing an option offense that averages over 210 yards per game on the ground. While the Bobcats are more balanced offensively, they also utilize a healthy dose of the run game, which starts with the quarterback. Redshirt freshman Brad Jackson has accounted for nearly as many touchdowns on the ground (16) as he has through the air (18) and is difficult to stop. In particular, the porous Rice pass defense will be in for a difficult day if Jackson is hitting his targets, which he typically does (71 percent completion percentage this season).
Rice has had trouble defending the pass all season, but surprisingly the number of yards it allows isn’t necessarily an indicator of how the game will go. The Owls are 2-3 in games which the defense has allowed at least 250 yards through the air. Despite being a run first offense which averages just 19.8 PPG, Rice has done alright in high scoring affairs. Texas State’s defense isn’t particularly special in terms of stopping the run and therefore some opportunities to move the football should exist for the Owls. On paper, the Bobcats should overwhelm the Owls with its offensive firepower and ability to mix things up on that end, but it may be a closer game than people expect if Rice can get things going on its own offensive end.
My Pick: 35-27 Texas State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 9 points
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy vs. Cincinnati (Friday, 4:30 PM ET – ESPN)
The service academies lucked out in bowl season this year, as both Army and Navy drew teams that saw mass exoduses prior to the postseason. We saw how that worked out for the Black Knights, and a similar result could be in store for the Midshipmen. Not surprisingly, Navy has very few opt outs to speak of. For Cincinnati, the picture is far less positive. To start, Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby announced his intention to enter the portal, which is a huge loss. Sorsby’s 36 total touchdowns tied for the most in the Big 12 by a single player this season and he was incredibly important to a quietly potent Cincinnati offense. In addition to Sorsby, the Cincinnati defense has been decimated by the portal as well, leaving the Bearcats with a lot of holes in what was already a unit with issues.
The nation’s top rushing offense may have a field day in Memphis. Navy’s attack is led by a quartet of seniors that have done an excellent job returning the Midshipmen to a level of consistency and relevance nationally. They’ll look to finish out a great career collectively in a big way against a Bearcats defense that, as alluded to earlier, wasn’t excellent even before the string of opt outs. Cincinnati began the season 7-1 with a narrow defeat at the hands of Nebraska and things were looking very bright for this squad. It all came crashing down at the end with four straight losses against some of the better competition in the Big 12, suggesting that these Bearcats may have been a paper tiger. The finish supports the clearing of house and I just don’t think that the motivation is quite there to see a particularly competitive outing in the bowl game. Discipline and motivation is rarely an issue for Navy and as a result I see them winning this one going away.
My Pick: 33-13 Navy
Bowl Mania Confidence: 15 points
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (Friday, 8 PM ET – ESPN)
On paper this is far from the sexiest matchup in bowl season, but in reality both teams should be motivated to play well and seemingly are happy to be in the postseason at all. There weren’t high expectations from the media for either program, but both managed to blow by the projected win totals laid out for them early in the year. While Mississippi State didn’t quite meet the initial bowl eligibility standards, its acceptance of this bid suggests they understand how important the extra practices and potential victory can be for a program building back from the depths of the SEC. Jake Dickert’s move to take the Wake Forest job seemed like a head scratcher at first, but the success the team had this season (albeit inconsistent) suggests that there is a method to the madness of their head coach and can be built upon as well.
It would have been an interesting battle to see how Wake Forest running back Demond Claiborne, who led the team with 907 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, fared against a Mississippi State defense that is already in construction mode having fired previous defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler. Claiborne won’t play in this game, however, and the Bulldogs hired back previous head coach Zach Arnett as defensive coordinator, which is a good hire. The Demon Deacons will instead need to rely on others to lead the offense in what could be a track meet. Mississippi State likes to move fast on offense and this bowl game will allow freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor some valuable reps as he is expected to start. Taylor showed flashes of brilliance against Mississippi in the Egg Bowl and is presumed to be the future for the Bulldogs. Wake Forest also struggled this season against mobile quarterbacks. If Arnett is able to stop the leaking defensively with the current roster and Taylor plays free, Mississippi State has the ability to get to six wins the unconventional way.
My Pick: 31-27 Mississippi State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 4 points
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
#17 Arizona vs. SMU (Friday, 8 PM ET – FOX)
The last non-Playoff associated bowl game of the season also happens to be FOX’s only postseason broadcast, setting up for one final opportunity to hear Gus Johnson call a football game until August. The Wildcats quietly put together a fine season but never created enough hype to gain much national attention. SMU had higher expectations than to land in a non-postseason January bowl game, but did still show flashes of a team that was supposed to be competing for a Playoff spot.
Believe it or not, Arizona was getting things done on the defensive side, boasting the Big 12’s top pass defense. The Wildcats never allowed a team to throw for over 300 yards in a single game. Meanwhile, the Mustangs were one of the ACC’s top passing offenses, averaging just over 283 yards per contest through the air. Something will have to give, though it is worth mentioning that Arizona didn’t get after the quarterback all that much (21 sacks) and SMU did a pretty good job and preventing teams from getting there (19 sacks allowed). That said, I expect Kevin Jennings to have enough time to work so that the Mustangs can move the football well in this game. Noah Fifita is a talented quarterback in his own right for the Wildcats, and compared with Jennings doesn’t turn the ball over as much. While Arizona’s defensive prowess may be called into question at points, I think that the Wildcats will do enough offensively (against a weaker defense) to notch a victory in San Diego. It should be a fun one that will sadly be mostly overlooked by the country.
My Pick: 35-30 Arizona
Bowl Mania Confidence: 17 points
