The first day of the year is traditionally all about high-stakes college football matchups, and the 12-team Playoff hasn’t done anything to diminish that.
My choice for most highly anticipated matchup of the season is amongst this grouping, and I cannot wait to see how it plays out.
Let’s take a look at the games being played on New Year’s Day.
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Capital One Orange Bowl
#5 Oregon vs. #4 Texas Tech (Thursday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
The Orange Bowl drew one of the best matchups of the entire college football season. Oregon’s run game is No. 2 nationally and will go up against the country’s best run defense in Texas Tech, which has allowed fewer than 70 yards per contest on the ground. The Ducks have seen and dealt with a lot this season, winning big, winning close, winning games where they have needed to score a lot of points and winning games where defense has won the day. Texas Tech’s path to the CFP quarterfinals has been littered with far fewer landmines, and to an extent it is justified that the Red Raiders are being overlooked by a majority of the country. There will be no room to hide in this one, however, as someone’s strength is going to be exposed.
At one point in the season, it looked like Dante Moore was positioning himself to be invited to New York City for the Heisman Trophy presentation. Though that possibility began to fade as the season wore on, Moore only had one bad game this season (against Indiana) and figures to be a key part of this matchup. Texas Tech’s lone loss to Arizona State was the only time all season that the Red Raiders allowed more than 281 yards through the air. Sam Leavitt’s mobility was an issue and Moore possesses a similar ability to keep plays alive with his legs, albeit operating more like a traditional dropback passer than Leavitt. If the Indiana game is the blueprint that Texas Tech employs to slow down Oregon’s run game, then Moore will need to pick up the slack through the air. As good as the two offenses have been this season, this looks like the type of matchup where the teams may use most of the first half to feel each other out. Oregon is the more experienced team in close games, but I think that Texas Tech is going to surprise a lot of people with just how talented its defensive front truly is.
My Pick: 21-17 Texas Tech
Bowl Mania Confidence: 21 points
Rose Bowl
#9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana (Thursday, 4 PM ET – ESPN)
The Crimson Tide spotted Oklahoma 17 points and still managed to win their First Round Playoff game by double digits on the road. It is a testament to the tenacity of this Alabama team, though at the same time a harrowing reminder that it is also an inconsistent football team. The biggest adjustment in that game came from defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, who confused John Mateer and the Oklahoma offense from about the middle of the second quarter onwards with pressure looks that weren’t coming early in the game. Given Indiana’s offensive potency in comparison to Oklahoma, another 17-point deficit cannot occur for Kalen DeBoer’s squad.
Like Oklahoma, the Hoosiers are adept at getting home and that is something that Alabama’s offense is likely to contend with all game long. Protecting Ty Simpson has been an issue throughout the year and for about a quarter and a half, it looked as if it would be the undoing of this Alabama team. The Hoosiers might be able to finish the job that the Sooners started thanks to an offense that is just as dangerous as its defense. Fernando Mendoza makes good decisions when throwing downfield and I’m unsure that Alabama’s pressure looks will have the same type of effect that it did last time out. If the Crimson Tide is unable to handle the waves of pressure that Indiana will bring, it may be a tough evening in Pasadena. The Hoosiers are the real deal this season and even though it’s far from an easy matchup, it feels like Indiana have advantages on both sides of the ball in this one. The no nonsense approach of its head coach, which may have additional motivation to beat the program that never game him an opportunity beyond wide receivers coach, may help if Indiana gets the chance to slam the door shut at any point.
My Pick: 31-21 Indiana
Bowl Mania Confidence: 32 points
Allstate Sugar Bowl
#6 Mississippi vs. #3 Georgia (Thursday, 8 PM ET – ESPN)
For the second straight game, the Rebels will face a team that it played earlier in the year. Unlike Tulane, Mississippi was unable to beat Georgia the first time around, and the Bulldogs were responsible for arguably the only bad quarter that the Rebels have played this season. It was an offensive shootout that befitted Lane Kiffin’s coaching style a bit more than Pete Golding’s, though in fairness the Rebels will probably try to avoid the game playing out in a similar way for more reasons than just the absence of Kiffin.
Georgia has been a difficult team to beat this season for a number of reasons, but one that has gained traction in written pieces (including Around The Corn’s) is the Bulldogs’ unwillingness to relent and continue grinding in games where they don’t have their best stuff. Despite allowing just 88 yards on the ground against Mississippi in the first game, Georgia gave up four rushing touchdowns to the Rebels. The status of Kewan Lacy is therefore very important. Injured in the Tulane game, Lacy’s status for this one is still unclear at the time of writing. If he plays and is near 100 percent, then the Rebels should be dynamic enough offensively to give Georgia a run for its money. The chess match on the sidelines does feel like it lost some juice without Kiffin, though. Kirby Smart has shown a few times this season alone that he and his staff are perhaps the best in the country at in-game adjustments, which is key to surviving these types of matchups.
My Pick: 34-27 Georgia
Bowl Mania Confidence: 41 points
