This preview needs little introduction, and no extra fluff to set the stage.
This weekend in college football will be all about the First Round of the CFP. From midday until around midnight on the Eastern timezone, there will be football with meaning happening.
Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games, which allow for the College Football Playoff games to completely command the stage for the first time this postseason.
Embed from Getty Images
College Football Playoff First Round
#10 Miami (FL) at #7 Texas A&M (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The path from this game leads to a date with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, but the path to it started with a victory over Notre Dame in September. There are no complaints from either side here having to play a First Round matchup, though the Hurricanes may be complaining about an inability to communicate calls during the game if the 12th Man does its job. Chances are that it will and that College Station will be rocking for the pre-noon CT kickoff. This is the first Playoff appearance for both programs, but it feels like it has been a long time coming for each head coach. This is a classic battle between contrasting styles, with Texas A&M featuring a high-octane offense that is a handful for the second line of defense to contain, whereas the Hurricanes like to disrupt things up front and create situations that put the opposition behind the sticks.
Miami’s best offense in this game may be its defense. The Hurricanes are lockdown against the run and have done a good job getting pressure up front, forcing an ACC best 34 sacks this season. Applying that pressure will be crucial but complex against Marcel Reed, who is incredibly dangerous with his legs but has the discipline to simply keep plays downfield alive with them as much as possible. If Miami is able to limit Reed and push the Aggies back with its defense, it can set up a field position battle, giving its offense a better chance to succeed in a tough environment. The Hurricanes have put up some gaudy statistics offensively this season, but have also been inconsistent and nowhere is that more evident than at the quarterback position with Carson Beck. The talent and capability is there, but which Beck we get may have as big an impact on this game as Miami’s defensive pressure. Texas A&M’s strength of schedule will certainly come into question if it is unable to get the job done in this spot, but I do think that Reed & Co. can make enough plays in big spots to stave off this Miami squad.
My Pick: 35-28 Texas A&M
Bowl Mania Confidence: 34 points
College Football Playoff First Round
#11 Tulane at #6 Mississippi (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – TNT/truTV)
Few would have predicted a rematch between these two teams, especially with the way that the first game went. The Rebels pummeled Tulane in mid-September, paving the way for Trinidad Chambliss to take over the starting quarterback role and proving to be the Green Wave’s ugliest defensive performance of the season. Perhaps more importantly, it was also the worst offensive performance of the regular season from Tulane. It was an early indication that this year’s Mississippi team wouldn’t be characterized singularly for its creative offensive tendencies under Lane Kiffin, but also for its tenacity defensively under then-defensive coordinator Pete Golding. Following Kiffin’s messy departure, Golding was named the permanent head man for the Rebels. It has been noted as being a popular choice with the players, but there is certainly some hesitation from the general public in terms of confidence that Mississippi is still capable of making the type of run they could have enjoyed under Kiffin. Whether Tulane plays any significant part in that remains to be seen.
For Tulane to have a shot at orchestrating what would be a massive upset, Jake Retzlaff needs to redeem himself. In the first matchup Retzlaff completed less than 30 percent of his passing attempts (five completions total) and threw for 56 total yards. The Green Wave play better when they are moving the football through the air, and moving the ball on the ground alone wasn’t enough against to keep Mississippi’s defense honest the first time around. It’s hard to imagine the Rebels forgetting how to play offense entirely without Kiffin on the sidelines, so Tulane may have to try to go toe-to-toe with that very good unit and hope some things bounce its way in a track meet. While I’m typically wary of teams that have to beat an opponent twice (especially one they previously waxed), I don’t know that Tulane will get enough from its offense to hang with the Rebels in this one.
My Pick: 34-17 Mississippi
Bowl Mania Confidence: 45 points
College Football Playoff First Round
#12 James Madison at #5 Oregon (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – TNT/truTV)
The College Football Playoff’s version of a 16 vs. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament will take place in Eugene on Saturday night. Rules are rules, and under those rules James Madison deserves its bid as the final team selected for this year’s Playoff. But the reality is that a major gap appears to exist between these two teams. The Dukes haven’t played a P4 opponent since September 5, a 14-point loss to Louisville. The Ducks posted more points on the current No. 1 team in the nation than all but one Indiana opponent this season. This is the kind of David vs. Goliath situation that Around The Corn absolutely loves, so we’ll be tuning in. But it may take some convincing for the casual fan not to flip to the NFL game happening simultaneously.
I expect that Dan Lanning will want to quickly take advantage of the size discrepancy between Oregon’s offensive front and the James Madison defense. The Dukes on paper are the second best run defense in the country and Oregon’s rushing offense is ranked No. 13 nationally. But given the competition that James Madison has faced most of the season, it’s difficult to lean on that as an area where the Dukes may be favored. The only thing I could foresee preventing James Madison getting exposed is that Lanning elects not to show his hand entirely with the run game, given that the winner of this matchup will take on the country’s top run stopping defense in Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. A scenario where Oregon builds a quick lead and can control the pace of the game afterwards is a best case scenario for the home fans. The longer James Madison is able to hang around, the more uncomfortable things get, both from the perspective of winning this game as well as preparing for the next round.
My Pick: 30-7 Oregon
Bowl Mania Confidence: 46 points
