It has not been a good year to have your preseason college football predictions be publicly visible.
I say this as someone who has watched two teams that I felt could run the table this year collectively go 1-4 to start the season and nearly be cleared entirely of the Top 25 before we reach October. And in my defense, I am far from alone in this regard.
I also say this as someone who generally bought into the hype about quarterbacks, both inexperienced and veteran, who have not lived up to their billing. This one is a bit more personally disappointing, as there was once a time when I had not bought into the likes of Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik. But I admit, by August I had.
It has been humbling, but no less exciting than usual. While the action on the field has been enjoyable, the results in the head-to-head prediction game have not been.
The current records after Week 3:
K. Becks – 7-7 SU, 4-10 ATS
Guests – 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS
This week, Around The Corn welcomes a first time prognosticator, who will probably continue to widen the gap that the guests have built thus far. Despite a quieter approach, this busy mom of two is a secret ball-knower, I am convinced. It would make total sense, too, as she is also the wife of my most knowledgeable buddy when it comes to college football.
In short, I am mentally prepared to lose again.
Here is the best that Week 4 in college football has to offer.
Embed from Getty Images5 Games You Need to Watch This Weekend
#17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah (Saturday, 12 PM ET – FOX)
It is a bit of a surprise that this is the game of the week in the Big 12 conference, but looking at both Texas Tech and Utah’s schedule, it shouldn’t be a shock that these two teams are unbeaten. That being said, the impressive team statistics for both sides need to be taken with a grain of salt at this point. Texas Tech’s offense is likely potent, but the Utah defense will be by far the most difficult test that the Red Raiders will have faced this season. Utah’s offense appears to be much better in 2025, but Texas Tech’s defensive front is nasty and won’t be easy to run on or give Devon Dampier a lot of time to sit in the pocket. This is really the first time this season that the majority of the country will respect anything positive that either of these teams are able to do on the field.
Behren Morton has steadily improved while at Texas Tech and throws one of the best deep balls in the Big 12. Utah doesn’t give up many big plays, though, so Morton will need to work through his progressions to beat the Utes defensively. He also needs to avoid the occasional lapse in judgment that in the past has led to turnovers. The Red Raiders cannot afford to give extra possessions to Utah, which leads the Big 12 in time of possession and will likely try to take the air out of the ball in this one. Maintaining possession has been no issue for the Utes, but finishing drives with points has been, thanks in part to some spotty kicking this season. While I think Dampier’s legs may give Texas Tech’s defensive front more issues than they’ve experienced so far this season, the Utes will need to put the ball in the endzone to win this game and will probably need to go to the air to do so. The 10 AM local time start seems cruel, but Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the best atmospheres in college football and I don’t think there will be a slow start from the home team despite the early rise. It will be a close one, but I see Utah doing just enough to prevent Texas Tech from building a positive narrative nationally on the heels of its busy and successful offseason.
My Pick: 27-24 Utah (does not cover -3 spread)
Jessica’s Take: At home this season, Texas Tech has high-point wins, averaging almost 60 points per game against unranked opponents. However, it will be difficult to win in Salt Lake City against a similarly ranked team. Both teams have strong defense and low-scoring opponents. It will be a close game, as Utah has a high third down conversion percentage (71 percent) and Texas Tech has a been averaging 387 passing yards per game. It should be an entertaining watch.
28-24 Utah
#22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ABC)
For the second time in three weeks, Oklahoma will host a ranked squad at home. This is the highly anticipated return to Norman for former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold, and is all the more intriguing given the fact that both teams enter this one unbeaten. Arnold has done a nice job guiding the Tigers to a 3-0 start, taking some of the heat off of Hugh Freeze, but Oklahoma is a different animal than Auburn’s previously three opponents, especially defensively. Whereas Arnold hasn’t been leaned on to be exceptional with his arm yet, Brent Venables knows his former signal-caller well and will ensure that he is tested in that regard.
While the jury is still out to some extent about Arnold, Oklahoma has gotten what they expected from John Mateer, who has quickly ascended the early Heisman Trophy shortlist with his play thus far. His appetite for risk is quite high, which has resulted in a few turnovers already, but that is balanced positively with the rewards that his aggressive play brings for the Oklahoma offense. I expect Mateer to be tough to stop for an Auburn defense that already allowed over 400 yards passing to Baylor earlier in the season. Meanwhile, for the Tigers to win this game Arnold will need to make good decisions in the pocket. He’s unlikely to have as much time to survey his options downfield as he has had the past couple of weeks, which is where I believe the Sooners will be able to win this game. Unless Oklahoma is caught off guard by Arnold’s ability to create something out of nothing with his legs, the Sooners appear to be slightly too strong on both sides of the ball to give their former quarterback the last laugh.
My Pick: 31-23 Oklahoma (covers -7 spread)
Jessica’s Take: Oklahoma has a strong defense, allowing an average of less than 1 touchdown per game. Oklahoma ranks 2nd in passing yards allowed, with Auburn stronger in rushing yards this season. The Oklahoma quarterback is dual threat, passing and rushing, and depends on how he performs for how the game ends up.
28-20 Oklahoma
#21 Michigan at Nebraska (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – CBS)
If it feels like we’ve been here before with Nebraska, you’re not alone. The Cornhuskers were in a similar position at this point last season, with a chance to start 4-0 for the first time since 2016. That opportunity ended with an overtime loss at home to Illinois, the first of three losses to ranked teams in 2024. The Matt Rhule era in Lincoln can generally be summed up as, “close, but no cigar” despite significant and consistent progress forward since he arrived. This game presents yet another opportunity for Rhule to achieve the signature victory at Nebraska which up to this point has eluded him.
Nebraska has been dominant the past two weeks, but the opener in Kansas City against Cincinnati provides a window into how I believe this game will go. Like the Bearcats, Michigan will seek success running the football against Nebraska, which has been difficult to throw against this season. Interestingly, despite Bryce Underwood’s perceived arm talent, the Wolverines were hesitant to unleash him against Oklahoma when it seemed like it would be a good idea to at least try. Unlike in Norman, I don’t see that being as big of an issue in this one, though Underwood may again be left feeling a bit frustrated by his team’s perceived lack of trust in him. And while Dylan Raiola has shown continued improvement in his sophomore year, it still feels like there is something to be desired from the Nebraska offense as a whole against capable defenses. I expect Michigan to do enough to slow down Raiola and allow a run dominant offense bordering on one dimensional to find a way to move the chains consistently. The Cornhusker faithful will need to wait yet another year for that 4-0 start – while they’re good enough to get there, Michigan will find a way to achieve what Cincinnati was nearly able to do on opening night.
My Pick: 24-21 Michigan (covers -2.5 spread)
Jessica’s Take: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a consistent quarterback and an offense averaging 49 points per game. They won closely against Cincinnati in their season opener. TSUN’s quarterback has been more inconsistent with passing. Both teams have strong defense and limit the number of points scored by opponents. I expect a lower scoring, close game. I could see either team winning – Nebraska could benefit from the home field advantage.
24-21 Nebraska
#9 Illinois at #19 Indiana (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – NBC)
The game of the week is being largely ignored by the media outlets not broadcasting this game, but the real slap in the face to fans in Bloomington is that they arguably would have brought a better crowd to the GameDay set than what will show up in Miami on Saturday morning. This aside, it’s a “prove it” game for both teams. Illinois went from preseason darling to almost the opposite when the Ilini’s wagon appeared to be getting too full to be cool. Indiana’s goodwill effectively ran out following its uncompetitive loss to Notre Dame last season, but Curt Cignetti reloaded where he felt it was necessary and has the Hoosiers looking similarly potent thus far. One team will come away being viewed as a legitimate threat to win the Big Ten title. The other? Let’s just say, it’s complicated.
On its face this may look like a classic battle between a stout defense (Illinois) and a powerful offense (Indiana). However, the Ilini are once again sneaky good offensively behind Luke Altmyer and showed that in the second half of what became a blowout victory over Duke, a team that was pegged to give Illinois a fight. And while Indiana’s offense gets most of the spotlight, its defense is underrated up front and can cause problems for Illinois, which has struggled keeping Altmyer upright this season (9 sacks allowed, worst in the Big Ten). The battle in the trenches will make all the difference in this one, just as the Big Ten football gods intended. Illinois can slow down Indiana’s potent offensive attack if it can disrupt the timing of Fernando Mendoza, who has been excellent through three games and throws a beautiful ball. Similarly, Indiana will have an excellent shot at winning this game if it can get to Altmyer and force third and long situations, as the Illinois offense isn’t built to succeed in that environment. This one is truly a tossup, but I’ve remained on the Ilini wagon since around July and don’t see any significant reason to hop off of it now.
My Pick: 34-31 Illinois (covers +6 spread)
Jessica’s Take: As an IU grad school alum I am excited to watch the matchup between two highly ranked Big Ten teams. I think Curt Cignetti will pull out the win at home. Indiana has demonstrated a powerful offensive attack this season, with a 73-0 win over Indiana State. They also boast an 11-game home winning streak. Illinois has high scoring wins this season against lower ranked opponents and Duke. Indiana has the opportunity to win at home due to a higher scoring and more seasoned team.
27-23 Indiana
Arizona State at Baylor (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET – FOX)
Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils are learning just how quickly things can change in college football. Last year, Arizona State got to play the role of plucky underdog, extending that all the way to the quarterfinals of the CFP. This year, Coach Dillingham’s team was one of the preseason favorites to get back to the Big 12 title game, but was unexpectedly upset by what is perhaps this year’s version of Arizona State in Mississippi State. Despite this being the conference opener for both programs, it feels like a game that neither can afford to lose. While not coming into the regular season with as much fanfare nationally as the Sun Devils, Baylor has also suffered an early setback that came as somewhat of a surprise, falling to Auburn at home. Those losses provide good insight into what will be important in deciding the winner of this game.
The Sun Devils got off to a very poor start against Mississippi State, digging a 17-0 hole before its furious comeback bid was extinguished by a 58-yard touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining. Avoiding a similar start against Baylor will be imperative for Arizona State, as the Bears can score in a hurry and are difficult to play against from behind. The Sun Devils will also be without one of their best defensive players in safety Xavion Alford, making it all that much more challenging to slow down Baylor’s potent offensive attack. With that being said, Baylor is suspect defensively even without injuries and will need to find a way to prevent Arizona State from controlling things with the run game. The Bears struggled to contain Jackson Arnold, and Sam Leavitt is similarly dangerous with his legs at the quarterback position. In the end, I see Arizona State giving up more points than they would like thanks to their compromised secondary, but Leavitt having a better day with his arm and able to keep Baylor’s defense guessing. Winning big games at home has been a challenge for Baylor recently, and the Sun Devils have already been exposed to a raucous road environment. Coach Dillingham & Co. will silence the home crowd this time around.
My Pick: 44-42 Arizona State (covers +2.5 spread)
Jessica’s Take: Baylor’s defense is limited and will likely allow more points than expected to Arizona State. Baylor has a stronger quarterback and Arizona State may have some questionable injuries to offensive players this week. I pick Baylor to win at home in a close game.
34-29 Baylor
Embed from Getty Images5 Games to Keep an Eye On This Weekend
Arkansas at Memphis (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ABC)
The Razorbacks nearly clipped Lane Kiffin’s boys on the road last Saturday, but will get a second chance to break hearts when they travel up to the Liberty Bowl to take on Memphis. The Tigers are once again the American Conference’s best hope for the Playoff bid following South Florida’s performance last week, and a win over Sam Pittman’s squad would do a lot to bolster that argument.
Syracuse at Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET – ESPN)
Out of the Top 25, out mind, it seems. Dabo Swinney’s squad has a ton of work to do if it wants to avoid this season being a massive disappointment, though the road doesn’t really get a whole lot smoother in Week 4. Syracuse puts up points on the board, something that Clemson’s offense has struggled with all year, so the Orange could deliver a knockout punch to the Tigers before the calendar flips to October.
Tulane at #13 Mississippi (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET – ESPN)
Tulane fans are reading my comments about Memphis and shaking their head in disgust. Well, Green Wave faithful, if your team can pull off a big upset on the road this weekend, I’ll eat crow and give Jon Sumrall’s group the attention it deserves. Austin Simmons’ availability for this game is questionable, and if that storylines develops negatively as we get closer to Saturday, this one gets all the more interesting.
South Carolina at #23 Missouri (Saturday, 7 PM ET – ESPN)
The Gamecocks lost LaNorris Sellers in the second quarter of last week’s blowout loss to Vanderbilt, failing to score another point after Sellers left the game. If he’s back, South Carolina could experience a role reversal this weekend.
Michigan State at #25 Southern Cal (Saturday, 11 PM ET – FOX)
Usually when a team in green starts its game at 11 PM Eastern, it’s Hawaii. Instead in The Rather Late Programme, the Spartans will take on the Big Ten’s No. 1 offense and try to find a way to stop it with the conference’s worst pass defense. Expect points, and a midday nap if you stay up to watch this one in its entirety.
